Alessandro Costa vs Stewart Nicoll
Men's Flyweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Duncan
Saturday, April 4, 2026 • 25ft Octagon (Small Cage) • UFC Apex, Las Vegas
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Alessandro Costa
14-5-0
Alessandro Costa
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Stewart Nicoll
8-2-0
Stewart Nicoll
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Alessandro Costa
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-13 | Alden Coria | L | TKO - Uppercut & Follow-up Punches (R3, 0:47) |
| 2024-05-04 | Kevin Borjas | W | TKO - Punches From Back Mount (R2, 1:35) |
| 2023-11-11 | Steve Erceg | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-06-17 | Jimmy Flick | W | TKO - Ground & Pound (R2, 1:03) |
| 2022-12-17 | Amir Albazi | L | TKO - Uppercut to Ground Punches (R3, 2:13) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Stewart Nicoll
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-11 | Lucas Rocha | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-08-17 | Jesus Aguilar | L | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R1, 2:39) |
| 2024-03-09 | Issei Kitano | W | TKO (R1, 4:45) |
| 2023-09-16 | Dansheel Moodley | W | TKO - Ground & Pound (R1, 4:24) |
| 2023-03-04 | Scott Eclavea | W | TKO - Strikes (R2, 4:44) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (66.0 vs 66.0) and Grappling Composite (78.0 vs 55.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Alessandro Costa Key Advantages
Costa's elite 83% takedown defense creates a massive challenge for Nicoll's wrestling-heavy gameplan. Despite Nicoll's perfect 100% takedown accuracy suggesting high-quality entries, Costa's defensive fundamentals—sprawl timing, hip pressure, and fence work—make him extremely difficult to ground. The Brazilian's BJJ background means he understands takedown mechanics intimately, allowing him to anticipate entries and counter with precision. This defensive wall forces Nicoll to expend significant energy on failed attempts, creating fatigue differentials that compound over three rounds. When combined with Costa's ability to threaten submissions from bottom position, this defensive edge becomes a fight-defining advantage.
Costa holds significant striking advantages across multiple metrics: 3.64 SLpM output versus Nicoll's 3.02, and a massive 57% vs 40% striking defense differential. This 17-point defensive gap means Costa absorbs far fewer clean shots while maintaining higher offensive volume. The Brazilian's ability to land strikes efficiently (45% accuracy) while slipping punches creates favorable exchanges that accumulate damage in his favor. When the fight stays standing—which Costa's 83% TDDef helps ensure—his striking edge becomes increasingly apparent. This advantage is magnified in later rounds where Nicoll's defensive lapses (40% StrDef) make him vulnerable to counters and sustained pressure.
Costa's BJJ pedigree creates a dangerous trap for Nicoll's wrestling-heavy approach. With 0.46 submission attempts per 15 minutes and 6 career submission victories, Costa represents a constant threat from bottom position. While Nicoll may achieve takedowns, holding Costa down safely becomes problematic—the Brazilian actively hunts for guillotines, arm triangles, and back takes from guard. This submission threat fundamentally alters the grappling dynamic: even when Nicoll succeeds with takedowns, he must balance control with submission defense, limiting his offensive output and point-scoring. Costa's ability to turn defensive positions into offensive opportunities could produce fight-ending moments if Nicoll overcommits on top.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Nicoll's massive 5.66 takedown attempts per 15 minutes with perfect 100% accuracy creates relentless pressure that could eventually break through Costa's 83% defense. Even if Costa stuffs 8 out of 10 attempts, Nicoll's persistence and volume mean he'll likely secure some takedowns. The Scottish's ability to chain attempts and attack from multiple angles (doubles, singles, trips) creates cumulative fatigue for Costa's defensive muscles. If Nicoll can establish early takedowns and build confidence, his wrestling output could overwhelm Costa's defensive reserves, especially in a 25-foot cage where there's less room to escape.
If Nicoll successfully secures takedowns and establishes top position, his 71.5 composite grappling score suggests he can maintain control despite Costa's submission threats. Nicoll's pressure-heavy top game with 0.00 submissions against indicates he prioritizes control over aggressive finishing attempts, making him less vulnerable to Costa's BJJ counters. If the Scottish can accumulate 2+ minutes of control time per round through smart positional work, he could bank rounds even without significant damage output. This scenario becomes particularly dangerous if Costa expends energy defending submissions instead of working back to his feet.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Costa should leverage his striking advantages (3.64 SLpM, 57% defense) to control center cage and force exchanges. His 45% accuracy combined with superior defensive metrics means he can win striking battles while absorbing minimal damage. The Brazilian should use constant footwork to circle away from Nicoll's takedown entries, staying at angles where shots become telegraphed. Sharp jabs and body kicks can accumulate points while testing Nicoll's 40% striking defense. By keeping the fight standing and maintaining offensive pressure, Costa can bank rounds through clean striking volume without engaging in the wrestling exchanges where Nicoll wants the fight.
When Nicoll inevitably secures takedowns, Costa must immediately shift to active guard work rather than passive defense. His 0.46 submissions per 15 minutes and BJJ background mean he should threaten guillotines during scrambles, hunt for triangles from guard, and constantly work for sweeps or back takes. By making Nicoll's top position uncomfortable and dangerous, Costa can limit control time while creating finish opportunities. Even unsuccessful submission attempts keep Nicoll defensive and prevent him from landing significant ground strikes, minimizing damage while the Brazilian works back to his feet where his striking edge returns.
🚀 Stewart Nicoll Key Advantages
Nicoll's massive 5.66 takedown attempts per 15 minutes with perfect 100% accuracy represents an elite-level wrestling threat that fundamentally dictates fight dynamics. This 12x differential in takedown volume versus Costa's 0.46 TD15 means Nicoll controls where the fight takes place. The Scottish's relentless pressure—chain-wrestling entries, reactive shots, and cage-cutting—creates cumulative defensive fatigue that wears down even high-level defensive grapplers. Even against Costa's 83% takedown defense, Nicoll's volume suggests he'll land 1-2 takedowns per round. His 71.5 composite grappling score indicates he can maintain top position and accumulate control time, banking rounds through positional dominance.
Nicoll's exceptional 87.5% finish rate across 8 career wins demonstrates his ability to end fights decisively. With 4 KO/TKO victories and 3 submission wins, the Scottish possesses multiple paths to victory. His 2:39 average fight duration shows fights rarely escape the first round when Nicoll finds success. This finishing instinct becomes particularly dangerous if he can impose his grappling and land takedowns—Costa's submission defense has shown vulnerabilities (1 career submission loss). Nicoll's ground-and-pound combined with position advancement could create finish opportunities, especially if he can exploit Costa's defensive gaps and accumulate damage from top position.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Costa's BJJ pedigree (6 career submission wins, 0.46 SubPer15) creates constant danger when Nicoll achieves takedowns. The Brazilian's active guard work—guillotine threats during entries, triangle setups from guard, and back-take attempts from scrambles—means every successful takedown carries submission risk. Nicoll's 0.00 submissions against record suggests he's cautious on top, but this defensive posture limits his offensive output and allows Costa to work for sweeps or stand-ups. If Nicoll becomes too focused on defending submissions, he won't accumulate enough control time or damage to win rounds, potentially surrendering his grappling advantage despite superior wrestling credentials.
If Nicoll can't establish his wrestling and the fight remains standing, he faces significant disadvantages: Costa's superior striking defense (57% vs 40%) and higher output (3.64 vs 3.02 SLpM) create unfavorable exchanges. Nicoll's 40% striking defense means he'll absorb clean shots consistently, accumulating visible damage that sways judges. The Scottish's only 2 UFC fights (0-2 record) suggest inexperience in extended striking battles against UFC-level competition. If Costa can maintain distance and avoid extended grappling sequences, Nicoll's path to victory evaporates—he can't win a pure striking match against a more defensive, higher-volume striker.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Nicoll must leverage his massive takedown volume advantage (5.66 TD15) to dictate fight location and accumulate control time. The Scottish should attack with varied entries—reactive doubles off jab exchanges, outside singles from clinch, and trips against the fence—to prevent Costa from timing his defense. Even failed attempts create cumulative fatigue on Costa's defensive muscles, eventually breaking through his 83% defense. The 25-foot cage limits escape routes, forcing quicker engagements that favor Nicoll's wrestling. By maintaining relentless pressure and accepting that 1-2 out of 10 attempts will succeed, Nicoll can bank rounds through positional control while minimizing striking exchanges where Costa holds advantages.
When Nicoll secures takedowns, he must prioritize safe positional control over aggressive finishing attempts. Costa's BJJ threat (6 career submission wins) means Nicoll should maintain heavy pressure from half-guard or side control rather than advancing to mount or taking the back where submission risks increase. Short ground strikes and shoulder pressure accumulate control time while minimizing exposure to guillotines or triangles. The Scottish's 0.00 submissions against record reflects this conservative approach—by focusing on maintaining top position for 2+ minutes per round, Nicoll can bank rounds through positional dominance without risking submission losses that would instantly reverse fight momentum.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 25-foot cage significantly impacts this grappling-heavy matchup, favoring Nicoll's wrestling pressure while limiting Costa's escape routes. The smaller octagon reduces the distance Costa can create through footwork, making it easier for Nicoll to cut angles and force clinch exchanges. While Costa's superior striking (3.64 SLpM, 57% StrDef) gives him advantages in open space, Nicoll's relentless takedown pressure (5.66 TD15) quickly compresses that space, forcing Costa to defend with his back near the fence. The confined environment magnifies Nicoll's wrestling volume advantage— every stuffed takedown drains Costa's defensive energy, eventually creating openings for successful entries. This cage size neutralizes Costa's potential movement-based gameplan, forcing him into the grinding defensive battle where Nicoll's volume threatens to overwhelm.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals two primary battlefields where this fight will be decided: wrestling volume and defensive grappling. Nicoll's massive 5.66 TD15 vs Costa's 0.46 represents a 12x differential in takedown activity that fundamentally dictates fight location. While Costa holds striking advantages (3.64 SLpM vs 3.02, 57% StrDef vs 40%), Nicoll's perfect 100% takedown accuracy with elite volume threatens to neutralize these edges by forcing extended grappling exchanges. Costa's elite 83% takedown defense provides a formidable barrier, but Nicoll's relentless pressure—potentially 15+ attempts across three rounds—creates cumulative fatigue that could eventually break through. The critical question becomes whether Costa can maintain his defensive wall while countering with submission threats, or if Nicoll's volume overwhelms his resistance and allows positional control to dictate scorecards.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: defensive grappling endurance, submission threat from bottom, and striking efficiency in open exchanges. Costa's 83% takedown defense against Nicoll's 100% accuracy and massive volume creates the fight's central tension—can the Brazilian maintain his defensive wall against relentless pressure, or will cumulative fatigue create openings? When Nicoll achieves takedowns, Costa's BJJ background (6 submission wins, 0.46 SubPer15) threatens to turn defensive positions into offensive opportunities, forcing Nicoll into cautious top control that limits his scoring. In the striking realm, Costa's superior metrics (3.64 SLpM, 57% StrDef vs 3.02, 40%) could accumulate round-winning advantages if he can keep the fight standing, but the 25-foot cage and Nicoll's wrestling volume make extended striking exchanges increasingly unlikely as the fight progresses.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Stewart Nicoll by Decision (35% probability), achieved through consistent takedown pressure, control time accumulation, and positional dominance over three rounds. Nicoll's wrestling volume (5.66 TD15) combined with perfect accuracy suggests he'll secure 4-6 takedowns total, banking rounds through ground control despite Costa's submission threats. Nicoll's finish path (23%) centers on ground-and-pound TKO if he can maintain safe top position and accumulate damage. Costa's best path to victory is Submission (20%)—his BJJ pedigree could catch Nicoll overcommitting on top. Costa's decision path (15%) requires stuffing 80%+ of takedowns and winning striking exchanges, while his KO/TKO route (7%) depends on catching Nicoll during entries or exploiting his poor 40% striking defense in extended standup.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
GOOD VALUE
SLIGHT VALUE
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overweights early KO volatility – Underprices five-round wrestling cycles.
- • Undervalues damage economy – Low SApM differential drives optics on cards.
- • Big-cage bias – Space helps early, but fence/rides erode it late.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Alessandro Costa
Primary path via fence control and rides
Attritional GNP and accumulative pressure
Back-takes off rides create RNC chances
💥Outcome Distribution - Stewart Nicoll
Best lane via intercepts and counters
Requires extended range control in big cage
Low historical submission profile
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Stewart Nicoll
- • First 7–10 minutes: Highest intercept KO equity.
- • Perimeter control: Teeps + calf kicks to stall entries.
- • Short pockets: Burst then reset; avoid extended clinch.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Alessandro Costa
- • Chain shots: Re-mats and rides bank control and sap pace.
- • Damage economy: Keep exchanges short; minimize risk.
- • Late minutes: Safer control edges decision likelihood.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong edge via wrestling cycles and safer damage profile
✅Supporting Factors
- • Massive takedown volume edge (5.66 vs 0.46 TD15)
- • Perfect 100% takedown accuracy with elite volume
- • Superior composite grappling (71.5 vs 58.4)
- • High finish rate (87.5%) across multiple methods
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Costa's BJJ threats from bottom (6 career sub wins)
- • Defensive striking gaps (40% StrDef)
- • Limited UFC experience (0-2 record, only 2 fights)
🏁Executive Summary
Stewart Nicoll's relentless wrestling pressure should dictate fight location and accumulate control time in the compact 25-foot cage, while Alessandro Costa's best path centers on defensive grappling, submission threats, and striking efficiency when the fight remains standing. The statistical differentials favor Nicoll's grappling approach: his massive 5.66 TD15 vs Costa's 0.46 creates a 12x takedown volume advantage, while his perfect 100% accuracy suggests high-quality entries that will eventually breach Costa's 83% defense through sheer persistence. However, Costa's superior striking metrics (3.64 SLpM, 57% StrDef vs 3.02, 40%) and dangerous BJJ pedigree (6 submission wins) create constant threats both standing and on the ground. The Brazilian's ability to threaten submissions from bottom position forces Nicoll into cautious top control, potentially limiting the Scottish fighter's offensive output and making rounds closer than pure grappling stats suggest.
Prediction: Nicoll by Decision favored (35% probability) through relentless takedown pressure and positional control; Costa's best path is Submission (20%) by catching Nicoll in guillotines or triangles during grappling exchanges. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Nicoll can impose his wrestling volume without succumbing to submission traps, or if Costa's defensive grappling and BJJ threats neutralize the Scottish fighter's grappling advantages.