Kaue Fernandes vs Harry Hardwick
Men's Lightweight Bout • UFC Paris
Saturday, September 6, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, and offensive & defensive analytics.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Kaue Fernandes
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-22 | Guram Kutateladze | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-08-03 | Mohammad Yahya | W | KO (punches) (R1, 4:45) |
| 2023-11-04 | Marc Diakiese | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-03-10 | Lucas Escobar | W | KO (punches) (R1, 4:21) |
| 2022-09-16 | Uyran Carlos | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R2, 3:24) |
Last 5 Fights - Harry Hardwick
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-21 | Javier Garcia | W | Technical Decision - Unanimous (R4, 0:45) |
| 2024-11-23 | Keweny Lopes | W | TKO (punches) (R4, 1:02) |
| 2024-05-25 | Orlando Wilson Prins | W | TKO (punches) (R2, 2:18) |
| 2023-07-21 | Vitor Estevam de Mello Souza | W | Technical Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R2, 0:33) |
| 2022-11-04 | Steve Aimable | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (85 vs 70) and Grappling Composite (70 vs 85). Both fighters balance well; Fernandes leans striking, Hardwick leans grappling.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, finish rate, and sustained output. Both profile around 80 given 11.5-minute averages and consistent pacing over 3-5 rounds.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical and Cardio. The matchup grades as competitively balanced with slight stylistic asymmetry.
Striking Composite
Kaue Fernandes advantage: 21.4%Grappling Composite
Harry Hardwick advantage: 21.4%🥊 Striking Composite
Fernandes (85): High output at 4.00 SLpM, 54% accuracy, strong 61% defense, and low 1.32 SApM indicate elite efficiency and durability.
Hardwick (70): Approximated from 23% KO/TKO wins and reports of effective mixing to body/head, but lower power output and no quantified accuracy/SLpM data suggest average efficiency.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Fernandes (70): Solid 1.30 TD/15min, perfect 100% TD accuracy, 76% defense, but 0.0 sub attempts per 15min limits threat.
Hardwick (85): 31% sub wins, including recent R2 tech sub, imply strong ground game and transitions, though no TD metrics available.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven 3-round prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Range & Cage Dynamics
In a large cage, Fernandes’ 73" reach pairs with efficient entries to manage distance. Hardwick’s forward pressure must create clinch exchanges to mute the length.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Fernandes brings UFC-validated striking (4.00 SLpM, 54% Acc, 61% Def) and 100% TD accuracy for location control. Hardwick presents a credible grappling chain (31% sub wins) and round-winning clinch work from Cage Warriors.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Lead-hand control at range for Fernandes; pummel-and-turn clinch sequences for Hardwick; defensive responsibility on exits to deny counter-level changes.
🏁Final Prediction
Minutes favor Fernandes; moments favor Hardwick if he forces scrambles. Projection: Fernandes edges a decision with damage at range, with Hardwick’s submission pathways live early.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 40% | Market: N/A
FAIR VALUE
Model: 10% | Market: N/A
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 60% | Market: N/A
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Debut uncertainty – Hardwick's regional dominance may be over-credited vs UFC level.
- • Reach dynamics – 73" vs 70" may be undervalued on open space striking minutes.
- • Submission volatility – Early grappling exchanges carry one-way risk for favorites.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis (3-Round Fight)
100 hypothetical fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Fernandes
Primary path via range control and minute winning
Accumulation and clean counters
Low but non-zero choke equity
💥Outcome Distribution - Hardwick
Lower one-shot danger at 155
Clinches and control against fence
Live choke chains in early scrambles
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Round Fight)
⚡Window of Opportunity - Hardwick
- • First 5 minutes: Highest submission equity from clinch pulls.
- • Intercept level changes: Time reactive shots under jab-crosses.
- • Back takes: Use body locks from fence to secure hooks.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Fernandes
- • Minute winning: Jab, calf-kicks, and counter rights at range.
- • Pace control: Mix level changes to dissuade clinch chaining.
- • Defense first: Exit on angles to deny back-take scrambles.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment (3-Round Fight)
Conviction level: 7/10 — UFC-proven striking vs debut grappling volatility
Confidence Level
Fernandes favored on minutes; submission volatility persists early.
✅Supporting Factors
- • UFC-validated striking: 4.00 SLpM, 54% Acc, 61% Def
- • 73" reach and range management
- • 100% takedown accuracy for location control
- • Recent wins over UFC-level opposition
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Debut and weight-class step for Hardwick adds variance
- • Grappling chains and back-take sequences
- • Small sample size on UFC metrics
- • Three-round variance in close minutes
🏁Executive Summary
Fernandes owns the sustainable minute-winning profile at range, with defensive wrestling to keep it upright. Hardwick’s submission equity is real but requires consistent access to clinch and mat phases.
Prediction: Fernandes by Decision or KO/TKO. Live hedge: Hardwick by Submission.