Axel Sola vs Rhys McKee
Men's Welterweight Bout • UFC Paris
Saturday, September 6, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Axel Sola
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-14 | Ghiles Oudelha | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2025-01-18 | Lucas Caio | W | TKO (punches and elbows) (R2, 3:43) |
| 2024-09-26 | Soslan Gagloev | W | TKO (punches) (R2, 4:59) |
| 2024-06-14 | Daguir Imavov | D | Decision - Majority (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-12-15 | Turpal Younousov | W | TKO (punches) (R4, 4:22) |
Last 5 Fights - Rhys McKee
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-05 | Daniel Frunza | W | TKO (doctor stoppage) (R1, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-30 | Chidi Njokuani | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-09-02 | Ange Loosa | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-04-29 | Jim Wallhead | W | TKO (corner stoppage) (R4, 5:00) |
| 2022-06-25 | Justin Burlinson | W | KO (punches) (R3, 0:25) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Axel Sola advantage: 37.1%Cardio Score
Axel Sola advantage: 16.2%Overall Rating
Axel Sola advantage: 26.2%📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (Sola 88 vs McKee 72) and Grappling Composite (Sola 82 vs McKee 52). Measures complete technical skill set.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, output, takedown rate, and finish rate. Reflects ability to sustain pace and efficiency throughout three rounds.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view combining skill level with conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Axel Sola advantage: 22.2%Grappling Composite
Axel Sola advantage: 57.7%🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of SLpM, Accuracy, Defense, and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including output, precision, and defense.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15, Takedown Accuracy, Takedown Defense, and Submissions per 15. Evaluates takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Range & Cage Dynamics
Open-space range favors McKee's long weapons, but Sola's clinch entries and wrestling can neutralize space once the fence is found.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Sola holds the defensive and grappling edge (TD/defense/sub threat), while McKee brings higher stand-up pace and knockdown potential. Minute-winning leans Sola if he controls phases.
🧩Key Battle Areas
First-layer takedown defense for McKee vs. Sola's chain-wrestling; jab/low-kick rhythm at range vs. fence-rides and top control.
🏁Final Prediction
Minutes favor Sola via clinch/wrestle control with damage on top; moments favor McKee at range. Projection: Sola edges the fight more often, with decision and late TKO as primary lanes.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 32% | Market: N/A
FAIR VALUE
Model: 28% | Market: N/A
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 55% | Market: N/A
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Defense gap – McKee's SApM and TDD often overpriced relative to opponent wrestling.
- • Control time – Top pressure not fully priced vs. volume-only profiles.
- • Round-winning – Decision lanes to Sola undervalued when entries are consistent.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis (3-Round Fight)
100 hypothetical 3-round fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Axel Sola
Primary path via control and damage
Top damage from dominant positions
Occasional choke when transitions open
💥Outcome Distribution - Rhys McKee
Long-range flurries and counters
Needs extended range control
Low historical submission threat
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Round Fight)
⚡Window of Opportunity - Rhys McKee
- • First 5 minutes: Highest KO equity before Sola's reads settle.
- • Intercept kicks: Counter entries with straight shots and knees.
- • Circle off fence: Avoid prolonged clinches.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Axel Sola
- • Minute winning: Jab to entries, clinch control, ground damage.
- • Pace control: Use mat returns to sap arms and output.
- • Defense first: Safe exits after exchanges to deny counters.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment (3-Round Fight)
Conviction level: 7/10 — Grappling/control mismatch with live KO danger at range
Confidence Level
Solid edge for Sola in control phases; McKee remains dangerous early.
✅Supporting Factors
- • Superior defensive profile and wrestling entries
- • Control-time routes align with McKee's TDD
- • Proven late-round durability in 5-rounders (regional)
- • Decision equity in 3 rounds
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Early KO volatility at range
- • UFC debut adjustments for Sola
- • Size/reach disadvantage vs. long welter
🏁Executive Summary
The matchup pits Sola's pressure wrestling and control against McKee's rangy volume striking. Defensive and grappling gaps historically shown by McKee create multiple high-percentage paths for Sola, especially across three rounds where banking minutes matters.
Prediction: Sola by Decision or late KO/TKO; live danger early from McKee's power.