Brad Tavares vs Robert Bryczek
Men's Middleweight Bout • UFC Paris
Saturday, September 6, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Veteran Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Challenger Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Brad Tavares
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-05 | Gerald Meerschaert | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-10-12 | Jun Yong Park | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-10 | Gregory Rodrigues | L | TKO - Punches (R3, 0:55) |
| 2023-08-19 | Chris Weidman | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-04-22 | Bruno Silva | L | TKO - Knee and Punch (R1, 3:35) |
Last 5 Fights - Robert Bryczek
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-02-10 | Ihor Potieria | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-15 | Joilton Lutterbach | W | KO/TKO (R1, 3:10) |
| 2023-02-18 | Jorge Bueno | W | KO/TKO (R1, 2:05) |
| 2022-09-10 | Pawel Pawlak | W | KO/TKO (R3, 1:40) |
| 2022-05-21 | Luis Felipe Dias | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (67 vs 46) and Grappling Composite (58 vs 42). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Brad Tavares Key Advantages
55% striking defense and 81% takedown defense help neutralize early power.
Longer average fight time and proven durability in 3-rounders.
Faced elite names and manages distance well with a disciplined jab.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Must avoid reckless trades in round 1 against Bryczek's heavy hands.
Counter windows exist if he steps in too square against a pressure striker.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use jab and footwork to keep the fight at range and rack up minutes for a decision.
Break rhythm with clinch resets and occasional level changes to blunt pressure.
🚀 Robert Bryczek Key Advantages
11 KO/TKO wins and forward pressure create danger in pocket exchanges.
Slight reach edge helps set up counters when Tavares steps in.
Walks opponents down and throws with bad intentions, especially in round 1.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Cardio disadvantage appears in minutes 8–15 where volume and defense favor Tavares.
24% accuracy with 4.47 absorbed/min allows Tavares to score clean at range.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Force exchanges early and look to land clean power before cardio gap appears.
Set counters when Tavares steps in, using slight reach to time hooks and straights.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Fight Dynamics
This middleweight matchup pits Tavares' veteran durability and defensive discipline against Bryczek's forward pressure and knockout power. Tavares' 55% striking defense and 81% takedown defense combine with better cardio to create sustained round-winning opportunities, while Bryczek's path lies primarily in early power moments.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Tavares carries decisive advantages in both the technical score (62.5 vs 44) and cardio (70 vs 40). His 3.42 SLpM with better accuracy and lower absorption rate (3.28 vs 4.47) favor clean scoring from range. Bryczek's accuracy deficit (24%) and elevated damage taken make extended exchanges risky.
🔑Key Battle Areas
Round 1 favors Bryczek's power if he can force ugly exchanges. From minute eight onward, pace and defense typically flip momentum to Tavares, who wins minutes behind jab, feints, and cagecraft. The big cage in Paris further benefits his footwork-heavy approach.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Tavares' path most often comes via a clean, disciplined decision after weathering the early storm. Bryczek's clearest route is an early KO before cardio and accuracy deficits take hold.
🏁Final Prediction
Expect Tavares to jab, circle, and collect minutes, especially late. Bryczek is dangerous early, but if he does not land clean in round 1, momentum shifts decisively. Projection leans toward a Tavares unanimous decision.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 50% | Market: N/A
GOOD VALUE
Model: 25% | Market: N/A
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 42.6% | Market: N/A
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • No public market lines available yet – Using model-only prices and probabilities
- • Model favors decision-heavy outcome – Veteran cardio and defense priced accordingly
- • Underdog KO live – Early volatility not fully captured without market props
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Tavares
Primary path to victory via defense and control
Counter or attritional stoppage opportunities
Low but non-zero submission threat
💥Outcome Distribution - Bryczek
Main finishing method - early power
Less likely due to cardio disadvantage
Minimal submission threat historically
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Bryczek
- • First 5 minutes: Highest finishing equity
- • Round 1: Leverage pressure and counters
- • Range traps: Time hooks when Tavares enters
- • Energy management: Avoid extended clinch/footwork chases
🎯Progressive Dominance - Tavares
- • Round 2+: Cardio and defense advantages emerge
- • Accumulation: Clean jabs and counters score consistently
- • Control: Clinch breaks and resets blunt pressure
- • Decision path: Most common outcome at 3 rounds
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong edge to veteran skillset with limited market uncertainty
✅Supporting Factors
- • Superior defensive metrics (StrDef 55% vs 60% with lower absorption)
- • Cardio and experience across 25+ UFC bouts
- • Proven minute-winning approach in large cage
- • Grappling deterrents with 81% TDD
- • Clear technical and overall rating advantage
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Bryczek's early power and forward pressure
- • Tavares has been hurt in past KO losses
- • Middleweight volatility in pocket exchanges
🏁Executive Summary
This matchup favors the composed veteran over the aggressive but inefficient finisher. Tavares' defense and cardio profile project sustained round winning, particularly as the fight extends. Bryczek remains dangerous early, but accuracy and durability trends support a decision for Tavares in most simulations.
Prediction: Brad Tavares via Unanimous Decision.