Patricio Freire vs Losene Keita
UFC Fight Night • UFC Fight Night
Saturday, September 6, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Veteran Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Prospect Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Patricio Freire
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-19 | Dan Ige | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-04-12 | Yair Rodriguez | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-22 | Jeremy Kennedy | W | TKO - Knees and Punches (R3, 4:07) |
| 2023-07-30 | Chihiro Suzuki | L | KO - Punch (R1, 2:32) |
| 2023-06-16 | Sergio Pettis | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Losene Keita
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-29 | Ronald Paradeiser | W | TKO - Elbow to Ground Punches (R2, 4:02) |
| 2024-09-21 | Mateusz Legierski | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-07-20 | Predrag Bogdanović | W | TKO - Body Shot (R2, 4:50) |
| 2024-05-04 | Agy Sardari | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-12-09 | Niko Samsonidse | W | TKO - Right Hook to Ground Punches (R2, 0:23) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (59 vs 85) and Grappling Composite (60 vs 65). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Patricio Freire Key Advantages
Veteran composure with solid defensive metrics and elite TDD (88%) to blunt takedown threats and slow momentum.
Years of championship-level competition enables pace control, round management, and late-fight decision equity.
Proven ability to identify patterns mid-fight and tilt exchanges with counters and smarter entries as rounds progress.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Keita's speed and power surges in rounds 1-2 can create finishing danger before Freire's pacing takes hold.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use defense-first striking and clinch breaks to extend the fight and steer toward rounds 2-3 decision equity.
Use clinch stalls and fence control to defuse bursts and bank control time while minimizing damage risk.
🚀 Losene Keita Key Advantages
Fast entries, sharp counters, and finishing instincts create real danger in early exchanges.
Height and reach advantages enable distance control and lane selection for power shots.
Rapid first step and explosive pocket entries create initiative and force defensive reactions.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If early power doesn't land, Freire's veteran pacing and defense can swing rounds 2-3.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Push pace early with power combinations, force reactions, and hunt momentum-shifting moments.
Mix feints and draw counters to open the right hand and step-in knees when Freire closes distance.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Match Dynamics
Classic veteran-versus-explosive-prospect dynamic. Freire's defensive experience and wrestling counters face Keita's speed and finishing threat in early rounds.
Expect visible momentum swings: initiative and power favor Keita early; durability, defense, and small positional wins favor Freire as the clock advances.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Defense and cardio lean to Freire in extended fights; striking volume and power lean to Keita early. TDD/TDE patterns suggest limited ground control time.
The winning fighter likely imposes preferred geography: Keita in open space exchanging quickly; Freire along the fence or at measured ranges where counters and clinches tax Keita's gas.
⚡Key Battle Areas
R1–R2 pace and range control; Freire's counter windows; Keita's ability to sustain output if the finish doesn't materialize early.
Low kicks and jab tempo are swing variables. If Keita can freeze entries with the jab/feints, his KO path improves; if Freire can check and counter, fight tempo normalizes toward decisions.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Freire: decision via defense-first approach and late-round management; opportunistic submissions in scrambles. Keita: KO/TKO via speed-power surges and clean counters.
Swing factor: cut or knockdown. Early damage for Keita can force urgency; conversely, damage mitigation by Freire compounds his decision probability with each minute banked.
🏁Final Prediction
Slight lean to Keita (55–45) due to early power upside, while acknowledging Freire's defensive parity and decision equity. Competitive 3-round bout with momentum swings.
Betting posture: cautious. Keita KO/TKO and Freire decision are the most coherent angles; live positions favor the side gaining initiative after the first two minutes.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 25% | Market: —
FAIR VALUE
Model: 40% | Market: —
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 50% | Market: —
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Patricio Freire
Veteran round management
Opportunistic grappling
Counter moments
💥Outcome Distribution - Losene Keita
One-shot power
Range control path
Low submission tendency
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Model confidence and key risk factors
Confidence Level
Competitive matchup with stylistic volatility
Confidence improves if Keita's pace holds past 3 minutes or if Freire cleanly negates the first blitz without damage.
✅Supporting Factors
- • Freire's defensive metrics and TDD
- • Keita's early finishing upside
- • Balanced cardio outlook for 3 rounds
- • Clear paths: Keita KO/TKO, Freire decision
- • Name-matching styles reduce variance in ground sequences
⚠️Risk Factors
- • UFC debut variables for Keita
- • Potential pacing swings across 3 rounds
- • Damage accumulation in pocket exchanges
- • Freire's cut history could accelerate doctor stoppage risk