Sam Patterson vs Trey Waters
Welterweight Bout • UFC Fight Night Paris
Saturday, September 6, 2025
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Sam Patterson
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-01 | Danny Barlow | W | TKO - Right Hook → Ground Strikes (R1, 3:10) |
| 2024-07-27 | Kiefer Crosbie | W | Submission - Arm-Triangle Choke (R1, 2:50) |
| 2024-01-20 | Yohan Lainesse | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R1, 2:03) |
| 2023-03-18 | Yanal Ashmouz | L | TKO - Counter Left → Ground Strikes (R1, 1:15) |
| 2022-09-27 | Vinicius Cenci | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R2, 4:18) |
Last 5 Fights - Trey Waters
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-11 | Billy Ray Goff | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-04-29 | Josh Quinlan | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-04-14 | Jalin Fuller | W | TKO - Punch (R2, 2:53) |
| 2022-09-06 | Gabriel Bonfim | L | Submission - Von Flue Choke (R1, 4:13) |
| 2022-06-03 | Benjamin Bennett | W | TKO - Knee to Head (R3, 4:37) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (44 vs 54) and Grappling Composite (64 vs 38). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Sam Patterson Key Advantages
Elite offensive grappling with 100% takedown accuracy (1.61 vs 0.44 TD/15) and superior submission rate (3.23 vs 0.88 Sub/15)
Elite finishing ability with 12 out of 13 career wins via finish - dangerous in all positions
Strong early round performance with most wins coming in R1 (7 of 13) - explosive starter
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Waters's superior striking volume (6.43 vs 3.17 SLpM) could overwhelm in extended exchanges
Waters's excellent takedown defense (86%) could neutralize Patterson's primary offensive weapon
📋 Likely Gameplan
Mix striking with takedown attempts to create confusion and control fight geography
Look for submission opportunities when grappling exchanges occur - high submission rate advantage
🚀 Trey Waters Key Advantages
Superior striking rate (6.43 vs 3.17 SLpM) with better accuracy (44% vs 41%) creates constant pressure
Excellent takedown defense (86% vs 33%) neutralizes Patterson's primary offensive weapon
Superior cardio (15 min avg vs 2.3 min) allows sustained pace and late-round performance
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Patterson's elite grappling and submission rate could be dangerous in extended ground exchanges
Patterson's explosive early round finishing ability requires careful early-fight navigation
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use height and reach advantages to control striking distance and avoid takedown attempts
Maintain high striking output to accumulate damage and exploit superior cardio in later rounds
🔮 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
Sam Patterson Win Probability
Underdog with grappling and finishing advantages
Trey Waters Win Probability
Favorite with superior striking volume and cardio
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Strategic Dynamics
This welterweight bout presents a fascinating tactical clash between Patterson's grappling-heavy approach and Waters's striking volume. Patterson enters with superior finishing ability (92.3% vs 66.7%) and elite grappling credentials. His exceptional takedown accuracy (100% vs 33%) and submission rate (3.23 vs 0.88) create multiple pathways to victory, particularly if he can neutralize Waters's striking advantages early.
⚔️Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals contrasting strengths that could determine the outcome. Waters's striking volume advantage (6.43 vs 3.17 SLpM) and superior cardio (15 min avg vs 2.3 min) become increasingly important in extended exchanges. His excellent takedown defense (86% vs 33%) could neutralize Patterson's primary weapon, forcing a striking battle where Waters's volume and accuracy advantages become decisive.
⚔️Key Battle Areas
The fight will likely be defined by Patterson's ability to implement his grappling game plan versus Waters's takedown defense and striking output. Patterson's window of opportunity exists primarily in grappling exchanges where his elite submission skills shine. Waters's path involves maintaining distance, utilizing superior striking volume, and leveraging his cardio advantage in later rounds where Patterson's explosive style may fade.
🎯Final Prediction
While Patterson possesses dangerous finishing ability and grappling advantages, Waters's superior striking volume, cardio, and takedown defense create a favorable matchup. Waters's ability to maintain distance and accumulate striking volume over three rounds, combined with his defensive wrestling to neutralize Patterson's submissions, gives him the edge in a competitive but clear decision victory.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 22% | Market: ~22%
FAIR VALUE
Model: 40% | Market: ~40%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 46% | Market: ~46%
🔮 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Patterson
Superior grappling and high submission rate
Counter-striking opportunities in later rounds
Unlikely due to cardio disadvantage
✨Outcome Distribution - Waters
Main winning method due to superior cardio
Accumulation of volume and strikes
Minimal submission threat historically
⏱️Fight Timeline Analysis
R1
Advantage: Patterson
Early explosion and finishing ability
R2
Advantage: Even
Transition period between explosive start and cardio
R3
Advantage: Waters
Cardio advantage becomes decisive
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level: 7/10 - Competitive bout with multiple variables
✅Supporting Factors
- •Striking Volume Advantage: Waters's 103% advantage in significant strikes landed creates consistent pressure
- •Cardio Superiority: 15-minute average fight duration vs 2.3 minutes favors extended exchanges
- •Takedown Defense: 86% vs 33% provides excellent defensive foundation against Patterson's grappling
- •Overall Rating Edge: 61 vs 41 overall rating indicates superior complete MMA skills
⚠️Risk Factors
- •Finishing Ability Gap: Patterson's 92.3% vs 66.7% finish rate creates constant danger
- •Grappling Differential: 100% takedown accuracy and 3.23 submission rate are elite credentials
- •Early Round Vulnerability: 54% of Patterson's wins come in R1 when he's most dangerous
- •Three-Round Format: Less time for cardio advantage to manifest compared to five-round fights
📋Executive Summary
This welterweight matchup presents a fascinating tactical battle between contrasting fighting styles. Patterson's grappling-heavy approach and elite finishing ability (92.3% finish rate) creates multiple pathways to victory, but Waters's superior striking volume and defensive wrestling provide strong counters to Patterson's primary weapons.
The statistical analysis favors Waters's striking output and cardio, particularly in extended exchanges where his 103% striking volume advantage and superior cardio become decisive. However, Patterson's takedown accuracy (100% vs 33%) and submission rate (3.23 vs 0.88) create legitimate finishing threats, especially in the early rounds when his explosive style is most effective.
Prediction: Waters's proven ability to maintain high striking output and defend takedowns, combined with superior cardio and overall rating, gives him the edge in this three-round contest. Expect a competitive fight where Waters's volume striking and defensive wrestling ultimately prevail, likely resulting in a decision victory for Waters.