Fares Ziam vs Kaue Fernandes
Men's Lightweight • UFC Fight Night Paris
Saturday, September 6, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Fares Ziam
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-01 | Mike Davis | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-09-28 | Matt Frevola | W | TKO - Knee to the Head (R3, 2:59) |
| 2024-02-24 | Claudio Puelles | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-22 | Jai Herbert | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-09-03 | Michal Figlak | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Kaue Fernandes
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-22 | Guram Kutateladze | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-08-03 | Mohammad Yahya | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 4:45) |
| 2023-11-04 | Marc Diakiese | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-03-10 | Felipe Douglas | W | TKO - Head Kick (R1, 0:45) |
| 2022-09-30 | José Arly | W | TKO - Body Kick (R1, 1:28) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (85 vs 45) and Grappling Composite (75 vs 60). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆Fares Ziam Key Advantages
🛡️Defensive ExcellenceSuperior metrics
Elite defensive striking (65% vs 29%) and proven takedown defense (70% vs 0%) create fortress-like protection against Fernandes' blitzing attacks.
💪Superior Cardio+42% advantage
Superior cardio score (85 vs 65) and proven three-round durability in five straight decisions shows elite conditioning.
🤼Wrestling Pressure+627% volume
1.62 takedowns per 15min vs 0.00 can pressure and control fight geography when needed, neutralizing striking exchanges.
⚠️Unfavorable Scenarios
💥Power Striking Exchanges
Fernandes' knockout power (5 KO/TKO wins) and reach advantage create danger in pocket exchanges during early aggression phases.
🔥Early Round Aggression
Must weather Fernandes' early power and precision before cardio advantages take effect in round three.
📋Likely Gameplan
🛡️Defensive Counter-Striking
Use superior defensive metrics to slip strikes and counter with calculated precision, avoiding extended exchanges.
🏆Later Rounds
Survive early danger and push pace in rounds 2-3 where cardio advantage becomes decisive factor for victory.
🚀Kaue Fernandes Key Advantages
💥Knockout Power83% finish rate
Elite one-shot knockout power with 10 KO/TKO wins - can end fight with single clean strike in early exchanges.
🎯Striking Precision+17% accuracy
Superior striking accuracy (52% vs 50%) and volume (5.00 vs 3.66 SLpM) create constant pressure and scoring opportunities.
📏Physical Advantages+4" reach
Significant reach advantage (79" vs 75") and height edge allow control of striking distance and prevent Ziam's pressure game.
⚠️Unfavorable Scenarios
⏰Late Round Fatigue
Cardio disadvantage becomes critical in the third round where Ziam's superior conditioning and pace pressure take effect.
🤼Wrestling Pressure
Ziam's wrestling volume and superior takedown defense could neutralize striking advantages when fight enters grappling exchanges.
⚡Likely Gameplan
⚡Early Aggression
Press the action early with power strikes before cardio disadvantage becomes factor in the third round.
📏Range Control
Utilize reach advantage to keep Ziam at distance and pick shots with precision while avoiding wrestling exchanges.
Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
Fares Ziam Win Probability
Strong favorite based on defensive metrics and cardio superiority
Kaue Fernandes Win Probability
Live underdog with superior striking power and early finishing ability
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Fight Dynamics
This lightweight bout presents a fascinating tactical battle between Ziam's methodical defensive approach and Fernandes' explosive knockout power. Having already faced elite competition, Ziam enters with both psychological and tactical advantages. His superior defensive metrics (65% vs 29%) create a defensive framework that has proven difficult for power strikers to penetrate.
🔧Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals contrasting strengths that could determine the outcome. Ziam's 42% cardio advantage (80.2 vs 56.5) becomes increasingly important in three-round battles, while his wrestling pressure (1.62 vs 0.0 takedowns per 15 minutes) provides alternative pathways to victory. Fernandes' striking advantage are substantial: 17% better accuracy (52% vs 50%), 37% higher volume (5.00 vs 3.66 SLpM), and devastating knockout power with an 83% finish rate.
⚔️Key Battle Areas
The fight likely unfolds in distinct phases limited by timing and conditioning. Fernandes' window of opportunity exists primarily in the first two rounds, where his power and reach advantage (79" vs 75") are most effective. His ability to land clean shots early could negate Ziam's late-round advantages. Conversely, Ziam's path to victory involves weathering the early storm, utilizing superior defensive metrics to minimize damage, and pushing the pace in the final round where his cardio superiority becomes decisive.
🎯Final Prediction
While Fernandes possesses the tools to secure a knockout victory and his striking advantages are legitimate, Ziam's proven ability to neutralize opponents' power, combined with superior defensive metrics and proven conditioning, gives him the clear edge. The 85-15 model projection reflects the statistical advantages and the narrow margin for error, likely resulting in a decision victory for Ziam in this lightweight bout.
💎Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
Popular Props
🎯Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
Since market odds are not available, these represent theoretical betting opportunities based on our model.
🔮Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Ziam
💥Outcome Distribution - Fernandes
📊Fight Timeline Analysis
Round-by-round progression analysis based on historical patterns and physical conditioning
R1
R2
R3
🎯Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level: 8/10 - Competitive rematch with multiple variables
Confidence Level
High confidence due to clear statistical advantages
✅Supporting Factors
- • Ziam's defensive superiority (65% vs 29%)
- • Massive cardio advantage (+42%)
- • Wrestling pressure provides control
- • Physical advantages (height/reach)
- • Proven elite-level experience
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Fernandes' knockout power (83% finish rate)
- • Early round vulnerabilities
- • Striking accuracy disadvantage
- • Lightweight division volatility
- • Limited UFC experience for Fernandes
🏁Executive Summary
This lightweight bout represents a fascinating tactical chess match between proven elite-level fighters. Ziam's experience against similar striking styles provides tactical advantages. His superior defensive metrics (65% vs 29%) and exceptional takedown defense (70% vs 0%) create a defensive framework that has proven difficult for power strikers to penetrate.
The statistical analysis favors Ziam's defensive metrics and superior cardio. Particularly in lightweight rounds where his 31% cardio advantage (85 vs 65) becomes decisive. However, Fernandes' knockout power and 70% finish rate create legitimate pathways to victory, especially in the first two rounds.
Prediction: Ziam's proven ability to neutralize opponents' power, combined with superior defensive metrics and proven conditioning, gives him the clear edge. The 85-15 model projection reflects the statistical advantages and the narrow margin for error, likely resulting in a decision victory for Ziam in this lightweight contest.