Oumar Sy vs Brendson Ribeiro
UFC Fight Night Paris
Saturday, September 6, 2025
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Rising Contender Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Veteran Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Oumar Sy
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-14 | Alonzo Menifield | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-09-28 | Da Woon Jung | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-05-18 | Tuco Tokkos | W | Submission - Rear-naked choke (R1, 3:43) |
| 2023-06-30 | Ildemar Alcântara | W | TKO - Punches from back mount (R1, 1:21) |
| 2023-03-17 | Luis Henrique da Silva | W | Submission - Rear-naked choke (R1, 1:40) |
Last 5 Fights - Brendson Ribeiro
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-07 | Azamat Murzakanov | L | TKO - Left-hook to ground strikes (R1, 3:25) |
| 2025-03-15 | Diyar Nurgozhay | W | Submission - Kimura (R2, 1:28) |
| 2024-11-02 | Caio Machado | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-22 | Magomed Gadzhiyasulov | L | Decision - Majority (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-17 | Mingyang Zhang | L | TKO - Punches to hammerfists (R1, 1:41) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (75 vs 45) and Grappling Composite (85 vs 35). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Oumar Sy Key Advantages
70% striking defense vs lower absorption rate - excellent defensive awareness and timing
Superior cardio score (75 vs 55) and proven three-round durability with longer average fight duration
2.22 takedowns per 15min vs 0.99 - can pressure and control fight geography when needed
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Ribeiro's knockout power (94% finish rate) and submission threat create danger in early exchanges
Must weather Ribeiro's early power and submission attempts before cardio advantages take effect
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use superior defensive metrics to slip strikes and counter with calculated precision
Survive early danger and push pace in rounds 2-3 where cardio advantage becomes decisive
🚀 Brendson Ribeiro Key Advantages
Elite one-shot knockout power with 9 KO/TKO wins - can end fight with single clean strike
0.70 submission attempts per 15min vs 0.40 - dangerous submission game with 7 career subs
12 first-round finishes show he capitalizes quickly when dominant positions appear
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Cardio disadvantage becomes critical in later rounds where Sy thrives
Sy's wrestling volume and superior takedown defense could neutralize striking advantages
📋 Likely Gameplan
Press the action early with power strikes before cardio disadvantage becomes factor
Look for submission opportunities in scrambles and transitions to end fight early
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Technical Superiority
This light heavyweight clash features a clear technical mismatch that heavily favors Sy. His 40-point technical advantage (80 vs 40) is primarily driven by superior defensive metrics and grappling control. Sy's 70% striking defense vs Ribeiro's 52% creates a significant defensive fortress, while his perfect 100% takedown defense vs Ribeiro's 0% provides complete control over where the fight takes place.
🎯Statistical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals a comprehensive advantage for Sy across all major categories. His 36% cardio advantage (75 vs 55) is driven by longer average fight duration (7:45 vs 5:10) and superior conditioning. The wrestling disparity is particularly stark: Sy's 2.22 takedowns per 15 minutes vs Ribeiro's 0.99, combined with perfect takedown defense, creates a complete grappling mismatch.
⚡Key Battle Areas
The fight will likely be determined in three critical phases: the initial exchanges where Ribeiro's 94% finish rate and 12 first-round finishes create early danger; the grappling transitions where Sy's wrestling pressure meets Ribeiro's 0% takedown defense; and the later rounds where Sy's superior cardio (75 vs 55) and defensive metrics become increasingly decisive. Ribeiro's window of opportunity is narrow and primarily exists in the first 5 minutes.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Sy's path to victory involves successfully implementing his defensive counter-striking game, weathering Ribeiro's early power and submission attempts, and dragging the fight to the later rounds where his technical advantages become overwhelming. His 72.7% finish rate suggests he can end fights when executing his game plan effectively, with submission threats being particularly dangerous.
Conversely, Ribeiro must leverage his finishing power early and often. His 94% finish rate and tendency to end fights in Round 1 (12 finishes) suggests he either finishes early or faces increasing difficulty as the fight progresses. The key for Ribeiro is avoiding extended grappling exchanges where Sy's technical superiority becomes paramount.
🏁Final Prediction
While Ribeiro possesses legitimate finishing power and his early-round threat is real, Sy's technical superiority, defensive excellence, and cardio advantages create too many paths to victory. The 73-27 split reflects both the quality of opposition and the comprehensive nature of Sy's advantages. Expect Sy to weather early danger, implement his defensive counter-striking game, and either secure a late submission or win a clear decision through superior technical skills and conditioning.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 30% | Market: ~30%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 20% | Market: ~20%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 15% | Market: ~15%
⚠️Key Market Considerations
- • Technical mismatch is significant - Sy's 40-point technical advantage should be reflected in odds
- • Defensive metrics favor Sy heavily - 70% striking defense vs 52% creates clear advantage
- • Grappling control is one-sided - Perfect TDD vs 0% TDD creates massive advantage
- • Cardio advantage becomes decisive - 36% cardio advantage favors Sy in later rounds
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Sy
Primary path to victory via cardio and defense
Grappling control leads to submission opportunities
Counter-striking opportunities in later rounds
💥Outcome Distribution - Ribeiro
Main finishing method - one-shot power
Submission threat in early scrambles
Less likely due to cardio disadvantage
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Ribeiro
- • First 5 minutes: Maximum power and submission threat effectiveness
- • Round 1: 70% of his finishes occur here (12 R1 finishes)
- • Early aggression: Must utilize power and submission game early
- • Energy management: Avoid extended grappling exchanges
🎯Progressive Dominance - Sy
- • Round 2+: Technical advantages and cardio superiority emerge
- • Accumulation: Defensive metrics and wrestling pressure wear down Ribeiro
- • Submission threat: Constant danger throughout all rounds
- • Late finish: Higher submission rate in later rounds
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
High confidence due to clear technical advantages
✅Supporting Factors
- • Sy's comprehensive technical advantages
- • Superior defensive metrics across the board
- • Perfect takedown defense vs 0% TDD
- • Strong cardio for 3 rounds
- • Clear statistical superiority
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Ribeiro's 94% finish rate
- • 12 first-round finishes
- • Dangerous submission threat
- • Early round power
- • Light heavyweight division volatility
🏁Executive Summary
This light heavyweight bout represents a clear technical mismatch that heavily favors Sy. His 40-point technical advantage (80 vs 40) is driven by superior defensive metrics, perfect takedown defense, and comprehensive grappling control. While Ribeiro's 94% finish rate and 12 first-round finishes create legitimate early danger, Sy's defensive excellence and cardio advantages provide multiple paths to victory.
The statistical analysis reveals overwhelming advantages for Sy across all major categories. His 70% striking defense vs Ribeiro's 52%, perfect takedown defense vs 0%, and 36% cardio advantage create a comprehensive technical superiority that should be reflected in the betting odds. The 73-27 split accurately reflects the genuine disparity in technical skills and conditioning.
Prediction: This fight likely comes down to whether Ribeiro can land a fight-ending strike or submission in the first 5 minutes, or if Sy's defensive excellence and technical superiority carry him to a clear victory. The high confidence level reflects the comprehensive nature of Sy's advantages, with the winner likely emerging through either Ribeiro's early finishing power or Sy's technical dominance and superior conditioning.