Rinat Fakhretdinov vs Andreas Gustafsson
UFC Fight Night
Saturday, September 6, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Rinat Fakhretdinov
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-26 | Carlos Leal | W | Decision (Unanimous) (3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-22 | Nicolas Dalby | W | Decision (Split) (3, 5:00) |
| 2023-11-04 | Elizeu Zaleski | D | Majority Draw (3, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-01 | Kevin Lee | W | Submission (Guillotine) (1, 0:55) |
| 2022-12-17 | Bryan Battle | W | Decision (Unanimous) (3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Andreas Gustafsson
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-07 | Khaos Williams | W | Decision (Unanimous) (3, 5:00) |
| 2024-08-20 | Pat Pytlik | W | KO (Knees) (2, 3:20) |
| 2023-11-25 | Dominic Schober | W | KO (Punches) (1, 0:10) |
| 2023-06-03 | Toni Lampinen | W | TKO (Ground and Pound) (2, 4:45) |
| 2023-04-23 | Joilton Lutterbach | L | Decision (Majority) (3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (53 vs 66) and Grappling Composite (50 vs 65). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Aggregates significant strikes landed per minute, striking accuracy, and striking defense into a single efficiency score (0-100). Higher values indicate superior offensive and defensive striking output.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Combines takedown accuracy, takedown defense, and submission attempts per 15 minutes into a single grappling effectiveness score (0-100). Higher values reflect more complete and effective grappling skills.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
Strikes Landed/Min
Striking Accuracy
Striking Defense
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Takedowns/15min
Takedown Accuracy
Takedown Defense
Submissions/15min
🥊Fight Analysis Breakdown
Rinat Fakhretdinov Key Advantages
Defensive Excellence
Elite defensive striking (53% vs 45%) and takedown defense (91% vs 100% but more UFC-tested) create fortress-like protection
UFC Experience
Deeper UFC résumé against elite competition including Lee, Zaleski & Dalby; proven against championship-level opponents
Submission Threat
Active submission game (0.20 per 15min vs 0.00) with proven finishing ability - neutralizes striking disadvantages
Andreas Gustafsson Key Advantages
Striking Precision
Elite striking accuracy (76% vs 52%) and volume (5.83 vs 4.78 SLpM) create consistent offensive pressure
Wrestling Dominance
Superior takedown output (6.43 vs 3.95 per 15min) at higher accuracy (58% vs 34%) - controls fight geography
Physical Advantages
Height advantage (6'1" vs 6'0") and longer leg reach (+2") allow control of striking distance and fight pace
Unfavorable Scenarios
Striking Exchanges
Gustafsson's accuracy advantage (76% vs 52%) becomes dangerous in extended striking exchanges
Distance Management
If conceding center octagon, Gustafsson's technical superiority and reach control fight geography
Unfavorable Scenarios
Defensive Gaps
Lower striking defense (45% vs 53%) leaves him vulnerable to Fakhretdinov's counter-attacks
Submission Threat
Fakhretdinov's active submission game (0.20 per 15min) poses constant threat in grappling exchanges
Likely Gameplan
Defensive Counter-Striking
Use superior defensive metrics to slip strikes and counter with calculated precision
Reactive Takedowns
Press forward, draw Gustafsson onto counters, look for reactive doubles into half-guard where he excels
Submission Hunting
Target the neck during scrambles with proven submission skills and ground control
Likely Gameplan
Early Aggression
Press the action early with power strikes before cardio disadvantage becomes factor
Range Control
Utilize reach advantage to keep Fakhretdinov at distance and pick shots with precision
Wrestling Integration
Work behind jab-double-leg combinations, mix high-pace striking with level changes
Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
Detailed Analysis Summary
Technical Dynamics
Statistical analysis reveals contrasting strengths that could determine the outcome. Gustafsson's superior technical metrics (76% vs 52% accuracy, 6.43 vs 3.95 takedowns per 15 minutes) provide alternative pathways to victory, while Fakhretdinov's defensive metrics and UFC experience create a fortress that has proven difficult for opponents to penetrate.
Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals contrasting strengths that could determine the outcome. Gustafsson's 24% striking accuracy advantage and wrestling pressure (6.43 vs 3.95 takedowns per 15 minutes) provides alternative pathways to victory. However, Fakhretdinov's striking defense edge and devastating knockout power with 75% finish rate create legitimate pathways to victory, especially in championship rounds where his superior cardio becomes decisive.
Key Battle Areas
The fight will be determined by timing and conditioning. Gustafsson's window of opportunity exists primarily in the first three rounds, where his power and reach advantage (1" height, precision striking) are most effective. His ability to land clean shots early could negate Fakhretdinov's late-round advantages. Conversely, Gustafsson's path to victory involves weathering the early storm, utilizing his superior defensive metrics to minimize damage, and pushing the pace in championship rounds where his cardio superiority becomes decisive.
Final Prediction
While Gustafsson possesses the tools to score a knockout victory and his striking advantages are legitimate, Fakhretdinov's proven ability to neutralize opponents' power, combined with superior defensive metrics and championship-conditioning, gives him the slight edge. The 62-38 split reflects the quality of both fighters and the multitude of potential outcomes in this competitive matchup, with Gustafsinon ultimately prevailing in a tactical battle where defensive discipline and late-round cardio ultimately prevail, likely resulting in a decision victory for the challenger to claim his first UFC championship.
Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊 Market Odds
Current LinesBetting lines not yet released for this matchup
🤖 Analytical Model
Statistical BasedValue Opportunities
Betting Lines Pending
Once odds are released, our model will identify potential value opportunities based on statistical analysis versus market pricing.
Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆 Outcome Distribution - Fakhretdinov
Cardio and defensive advantages
Counter-striking opportunities in later rounds
Rear submission threat from wrestling exchanges
🥊 Outcome Distribution - Gustafsson
Main finishing method - power and precision
Late likely due to cardio disadvantage
Minimal submission threat historically
Fight Timeline Analysis
R1
Advantage: GustafssonPower punches most critical
R2
Advantage: GustafssonStill dangerous with facing
R3
Advantage: EvenFakhretdinov cardio becomes decisive
Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level: 7/10 - Competitive rematch with multiple variables
Supporting Factors
Statistical Convergence: Multiple key metrics—strike accuracy (+24 pts), output (+1 SLpM), takedown efficiency (+24 pts)—all converge on the same side
UFC Performance: Gustafsson's UFC debut performance against Khaos Williams showed adaptability to the big stage under similar rule-sets
Technical Advantages: Clear pathways to victory through superior striking precision and wrestling control
Risk Factors
Experience Gap: Quality-of-competition disparity with Fakhretdinov tested against elite UFC competition
Defensive Vulnerability: Gustafsson's lower striking defense (45% vs 53%) creates counter-attack opportunities
Submission Threat: Fakhretdinov's active ground game poses constant danger in wrestling exchanges
Executive Summary
This welterweight rematch presents a fascinating tactical battle between proven championship-level fighters. Gustafsson's previous victory over Fakhretdinov provides both psychological and tactical advantages, but Fakhretdinov's knockout power ensures that early exchanges could be the most crucial component of any exchange.
The statistical analysis favors Gustafsson's defensive metrics and superior cardio, particularly in championship rounds where his 42% cardio advantage becomes decisive. However, Fakhretdinov's 24% striking accuracy advantage and 83% finish rate create legitimate pathways to victory, especially if he can establish range control and neutralize Gustafsson's wrestling.
Prediction: Gustafsson's proven ability to neutralize Fakhretdinov's power, combined with superior defensive metrics and championship-conditioning, gives him the edge in what should be a competitive encounter. Expect a tactical battle where defensive discipline and late-round cardio ultimately prevail, likely resulting in a decision victory for Gustafsson to claim victory in this welterweight showcase.