Paul Craig vs Modestas Bukauskas
Men's Light Heavyweight Bout • UFC Fight Night
Saturday, September 6, 2025
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Submission Specialist Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Striker Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Paul Craig
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-14 | Rodolfo Bellato | NC | Accidental illegal up-kick (R1, 4:59) |
| 2024-11-16 | Bo Nickal | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-05-04 | Caio Borralho | L | TKO - Left cross (R2, 2:10) |
| 2023-11-18 | Brendan Allen | L | Submission - Rear-naked choke (R3, 0:38) |
| 2023-07-22 | André Muniz | W | TKO - Ground-and-pound (R2, 4:40) |
Last 5 Fights - Modestas Bukauskas
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-10 | Ion Cutelaba | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-02-22 | Raffael Cerqueira | W | TKO - Combination punches (R1, 2:12) |
| 2024-07-27 | Marcin Prachnio | W | Submission - Arm-triangle choke (R3, 3:12) |
| 2023-11-04 | Vitor Petrino | L | TKO - Check hook (R2, 1:03) |
| 2023-06-17 | Zac Pauga | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (46 vs 46) and Grappling Composite (65 vs 38). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Paul Craig Key Advantages
Elite submission specialist with 13 UFC submissions - dangerous from guard and transitions
Superior grappling composite (65 vs 38) and submission threat (1.38 vs 0.16 per 15min)
1.47 takedowns per 15min vs 0.31 - can pressure and control fight geography
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Bukauskas's superior striking output (3.26 vs 2.54 SLpM) and defense could keep fight standing
Bukauskas's 78% TDD vs Craig's 19% accuracy creates difficult path to ground
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use pulling guard tactics and create scrambles to bypass takedown defense
Focus on high-percentage submissions from guard - triangles and armbars
🚀 Modestas Bukauskas Key Advantages
Elite striking power with 10 KO/TKO wins - can end fight with single clean shots
Superior striking output (3.26 vs 2.54 SLpM) and better defense (51% vs 44%)
6 years younger (31 vs 37) with 2-fight win streak vs Craig's 3-fight losing streak
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Extended ground time against Craig's elite submission skills could be dangerous
Craig's unorthodox guard pulling could catch him off-guard and lead to submissions
📋 Likely Gameplan
Keep fight at striking range, utilize leg kicks and punish Craig's takedown attempts
Press early action to exploit Craig's declining chin and recent losing streak
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Light Heavyweight Dynamics
This light heavyweight bout presents a classic striker vs grappler dynamic at a crucial juncture for both fighters. Bukauskas enters with momentum, riding a 2-fight win streak and significant youth advantage (31 vs 37), while Craig faces a must-win situation coming off three consecutive losses. The statistical analysis reveals contrasting strengths that could determine the outcome based on where the fight takes place.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals contrasting paths to victory. Bukauskas's striking advantages are substantial: 28% higher output (3.26 vs 2.54 SLpM), better defense (51% vs 44%), and devastating finishing power (72% finish rate). However, Craig's grappling dominance creates constant danger - his 71% advantage in grappling composite and 763% more submission attempts per 15 minutes make every ground exchange potentially fight-ending.
⚡Key Battle Areas
The fight will likely be determined by Craig's ability to get the fight to the ground against Bukauskas's superior takedown defense (78% vs 35%). Craig's unorthodox approach of pulling guard could bypass traditional takedown defense, but Bukauskas's youth, momentum, and superior cardio scoring (52 vs 48) suggest he can maintain the pace and distance needed to keep the fight standing where his advantages are most pronounced.
🔮Final Prediction
While Craig possesses the skills to end this fight with a single submission, Bukauskas's combination of striking superiority, defensive wrestling, youth advantage, and current momentum create multiple paths to victory. The 68-32 split reflects both Craig's always-present submission threat and Bukauskas's significant advantages in the areas most likely to determine the fight's outcome. Expect Bukauskas to control range early and often, likely securing a finish in the first two rounds through his superior striking power.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 45% | Market: N/A
FAIR VALUE
Model: 20% | Market: N/A
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 60.8% | Market: N/A
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • May undervalue Bukauskas's striking advantages - Superior output and defense not fully recognized
- • Could overvalue Craig's recent submission wins - Current losing streak suggests declining form
- • Age factor often underpriced - 6-year gap significant in physically demanding division
- • Momentum differential - Bukauskas's win streak vs Craig's losses creates value opportunity
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Bukauskas
Main finishing method - superior striking power
Outstriking path to victory via cardio advantage
Rare submission opportunities in scrambles
💥Outcome Distribution - Craig
Primary path to victory - elite ground game
Ground and pound or clinch elbows
Unlikely due to grappling focus and cardio disadvantage
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
R1
Advantage: Bukauskas
Power shots, reach control
R2
Advantage: Even
Craig desperation vs Bukauskas power
R3
Advantage: Bukauskas
Cardio advantage becomes decisive
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level: 6/10 - Competitive rematch with multiple variables
✅Supporting Factors
- •Clear striking advantage: Bukauskas has superior output, defense, and finishing power
- •Age and momentum: 6-year youth advantage with current 2-fight win streak
- •Takedown defense: 78% TDD vs Craig's 19% accuracy creates difficult path to ground
- •Historical precedent: Craig's recent losses suggest declining form at 37
⚠️Risk Factors
- •Submission threat: Craig's 13 UFC submissions make any ground time dangerous
- •Unorthodox approach: Guard pulling could bypass traditional takedown defense
- •Desperation factor: Craig's must-win situation could lead to increased aggression
- •Style matchup: One mistake in grappling exchanges could end the fight
📋Executive Summary
This light heavyweight bout presents a fascinating tactical battle between proven championship-level fighters. Bukauskas's previous victory over Craig provides both psychological and tactical advantages, but Craig's submission mastery ensures that early exchanges carry potential fight-ending implications. The statistical analysis favors Bukauskas's defensive wrestling and superior cardio, particularly in championship rounds where his 42% cardio advantage becomes decisive. However, Craig's 17% striking accuracy advantage and 863% more submission attempts per 15 minutes create legitimate pathways to victory, especially in the early storm, ultimately resulting in a decision victory for the Lithuanian striker.