Yi Zha vs Westin Wilson
UFC Fight Night Shanghai
Saturday, August 23, 2025
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Yi Zha
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-07 | Gabriel Santos | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-03 | Kaiwen Li | W | Submission - Armbar (R1, 3:03) |
| 2023-08-27 | Sang Won Kim | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-05-27 | Wuziazibieke Jiahefu | W | Submission - Armbar (R1, 2:28) |
| 2023-02-04 | Jeong Yeong Lee | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Westin Wilson
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-15 | Jeka Saragih | W | Submission - Triangle Armbar (R1, 1:49) |
| 2024-01-13 | Jean Silva | L | KO/TKO - Punches (R1, 4:12) |
| 2023-07-01 | Joanderson Brito | L | KO/TKO - Ground & Pound (R1, 2:54) |
| 2023-03-03 | Fabricio Franco | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 2:37) |
| 2022-11-05 | Mike Wilson | W | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R1, 4:29) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (78 vs 60) and Grappling Composite (72 vs 70). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Yi Zha Key Advantages
Zha's 58% striking accuracy vs Wilson's 33% creates a massive 75.8% advantage in precision. His patient, measured approach allows him to land clean counters when Wilson overcommits to takedown attempts. Zha's 3.1 SLpM may seem low, but his efficiency means he rarely wastes energy on missed strikes, while Wilson absorbs 5.72 strikes per minute due to poor defensive positioning during grappling entries.
Zha's average fight duration of 15:00 vs Wilson's 5:00 demonstrates a massive 36.7% cardio advantage. His decision-heavy record (6 wins) shows he can maintain technical precision throughout all three rounds, while Wilson's 100% finish rate but 0 decision wins suggests he either ends fights early or loses steam. This becomes crucial if Zha can survive Wilson's early submission blitz and extend the fight.
Zha's 53% striking defense vs Wilson's 40% gives him a 32.5% defensive advantage. His UFC experience, despite being 0-2, has exposed him to high-level competition, teaching him to manage distance and avoid dangerous positions. His ability to survive early scrambles and maintain composure under pressure allows his technical advantages to compound as the fight progresses, while Wilson's aggressive but often reckless approach can leave him vulnerable to counters.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Must survive Wilson's high-velocity submission attempts in the opening minutes.
5" reach disadvantage requires disciplined entries and counter work.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Deny early shots, punish failed entries with clean counters, keep it standing.
Manage pace, force late exchanges where cardio and durability become decisive.
🚀 Westin Wilson Key Advantages
Wilson's 8.4 submission attempts per 15 minutes vs Zha's 0.3 represents a staggering 2,700% volume advantage. His 6'1" frame at featherweight provides exceptional leverage for front chokes, triangles, and back takes. Wilson's submission success rate of 12 wins (71% of victories) shows his technical proficiency, particularly with guillotines and armbars. His aggressive approach means he's constantly looking for finishes rather than positional control, making him dangerous in any grappling exchange.
Wilson's 6'1" height vs Zha's 5'8" and 73" reach vs 68" provides a 7.4% physical advantage. This height differential is extremely rare at featherweight and allows Wilson to threaten submissions from positions where shorter fighters would struggle. His long limbs are perfect for triangles, guillotines, and back takes, while his reach advantage in striking exchanges can keep Zha at bay during the initial phases of the fight before grappling transitions occur.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Low SLpM and poor defense (5.72 absorbed/min) make standing exchanges dangerous.
If early sub doesn't land, efficiency drops sharply in later minutes.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Press early with level changes and jump on necks; maximize Round 1 finishing window.
Force scrambles, move from guillotines to triangles to back takes until a finish materializes.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Stylistic Clash & Technical Contrast
This matchup represents a classic striker-vs-grappler dynamic that has defined many of the sport's most compelling contests. Zha brings measured, accurate striking (58% accuracy) with proven 15-minute durability and a methodical approach that accumulates damage over time. Wilson offers explosive but narrow submission pathways early, relying on his exceptional 8.4 submission attempts per 15 minutes and physical advantages to secure finishes before his cardio limitations become exposed.
🎯Statistical Analysis & Key Metrics
The numbers underline a clear efficiency gap on the feet: Zha holds a decisive edge in striking accuracy (58% vs 33%) and defensive responsibility (53% vs 40%), while Wilson's output profile is inverted (1.68 SLpM vs 5.72 SApM). That said, Wilson's submission engine is elite at 8.4 attempts per 15 minutes and front‑loaded by design. The pivotal variable is survival time: if Zha navigates the first 5 minutes without conceding dominant positions, his efficiency, cardio and ringcraft begin to compound, shifting the expected value increasingly in his favor.
🔑Critical Battle Phases & Timing
Phase 1 (R1): Wilson's best window. Long‑limb front chokes and back‑takes are live off frantic entries; Zha must sprawl early and deny wrist control. Phase 2 (late R1–R2): Neutralizing transitions. If Zha forces resets and keeps the fight at range, his accuracy edge begins to surface. Phase 3 (R3): Cardio separation. Zha's minute‑winning style and measured counters typically tilt close rounds; Wilson's finishing threat diminishes sharply if he hasn't established top control.
🏁Victory Pathways & Strategic Execution
Zha: keep stance discipline, punish level‑changes with uppercuts and knees, deny grips, and stretch the clock—win minutes with clean counters to a decision. Wilson: compress distance early, chain shots to front‑headlock sequences, and force back‑exposure in scrambles—his clearest route is an early submission. If extended, expectation converges on Zha's control of tempo and accuracy to bank rounds.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 53% | Market: ~50%
FAIR VALUE
Model: 23% | Market: ~33%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 54% | Market: 54.5%
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Zha
Primary path via volume and control
Counter opportunities vs porous defense
Opportunistic grappling sequences
💥Outcome Distribution - Wilson
Main finishing route via front chokes/back takes
Less likely due to striking inefficiency
Rare outcome given style/pace
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level: 8/10 - Clear stylistic edges with early-risk caveat
Confidence Level
High confidence — early sub is main risk
✅Supporting Factors
- • Striking accuracy and decision reliability for Yi Zha
- • Cardio advantage over three rounds
- • Wilson's low SLpM and high absorption
- • Clear defensive counters vs reckless entries
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Wilson's front-choke series early
- • Reach disadvantage for Yi Zha
- • Potential scramble chaos in Round 1
- • Featherweight volatility
🏁Executive Summary
This featherweight matchup distills to range control and survivability. Zha's high‑percentage striking and proven three‑round endurance oppose Wilson's tall‑frame submission hunting that peaks early. The data suggests a front‑loaded danger curve for Wilson: enormous sub volume but limited sustained control; if Zha clears the opening storm, his accuracy and cardio create consistent minute‑winning opportunities.
Prediction: Yi Zha by Decision most likely. Respect Westin Wilsonearly—his first‑round submission upside is real—but over extended minutes the balance of probabilities favors Zha's composure, defense, and striking efficiency to secure the scorecards.