Michel Pereira vs Kyle Daukaus
UFC Fight Night: China • Men's Middleweight
Saturday, August 23, 2025
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Michel Pereira
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-26 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-10-19 | Anthony Hernandez | L | TKO - Elbows (R5, 2:22) |
| 2024-05-04 | Ihor Potieria | W | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R1, 0:54) |
| 2024-03-09 | Michał Oleksiejczuk | W | Technical Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 1:01) |
| 2023-10-14 | Andre Petroski | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 1:06) |
Last 5 Fights - Kyle Daukaus
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-14 | Keanan Patershuk | W | KO - Punches (R1, -) |
| 2024-02-09 | Sean Connor Fallon | W | Submission - Brabo Choke (R3, 3:45) |
| 2023-09-02 | Gregg Ellis | W | Decision - Unanimous (R4, 5:00) |
| 2023-06-16 | Robert Gidron | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 4:59) |
| 2022-12-03 | Eryk Anders | L | TKO - Punches (R2, 2:45) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (79 vs 62) and Grappling Composite (68 vs 84). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Michel Pereira Key Advantages
Higher volume with better defense; body work slows entries.
Varied targeting to head, body and legs creates constant scoring.
Slows level changes and discourages entries.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Fence control and mat returns can blunt output.
If grappling minutes accumulate beyond R2.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Target body, sprawl and counter on shots.
Reset after brief ties-ups.
🚀 Kyle Daukaus Key Advantages
Elite submission output with strong control.
Hard to take down; frames, trips and resets.
Helps set up safer level changes and jabs.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Defensive gaps can be targeted at range.
Body shots can reduce takedown efficacy.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Press to fence, chain takedowns, advance to control.
Work Brabo/D’Arce and RNC transitions.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Bout Dynamics
Strike-first vs grapple-first. Pereira’s evasive footwork, counter kicks and body work bank early optics and damage. Daukaus shifts equity with fence pins, mat returns and top control that reduce striking volume. The scoring tension is damage vs control; Pereira wins clean space, Daukaus wins clinch sequences.
- Range striking exchanges: clear Pereira edge
- Clinch/wall time: Daukaus advances position and threatens subs
- Judges: prioritize visible damage; control must produce offense
🎯Technical Breakdown
Pereira: +1.3 SLpM differential, 52% strike defense, reliable calf/body targeting that blunts level changes. Daukaus: ~2 subs/15, strong front headlock and back takes, 83% TDD translating into sticky clinch re-entries. Fight hinges on first layer of defense: can Pereira win hands/underhooks and circle off before mat returns?
⚡Key Battle Areas
Space exchanges and body attrition favor Pereira; fence control and mat returns favor Daukaus. Optics: clean impacts and momentum swings vs accumulative control and threats.
- Entries: Daukaus must enter off his punches or re-shots
- Exits: Pereira must frame, pivot, and punish with counters
- Top time: meaningful only if coupled with damage or near subs
🏁Final Prediction
Lean Michel Pereira by Decision or KO/TKO; Kyle Daukaus live by Submission in R2–R3 if clinch control is sustained. First clinch exchanges will signal the trajectory.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
HIGHEST PROBABILITY
Model: 28%
GOOD PROBABILITY
Model: 28%
SLIGHT PROBABILITY
Model: 22%
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Michel Pereira
Primary path via range control and defense
Counters and body attrition
Opportunistic subs
💥Outcome Distribution - Kyle Daukaus
Primary finishing method
Control-time outcomes
Least likely path
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Clear stylistic contrast with measurable edges
✅Supporting Factors
- • Pereira volume and defensive striking edge
- • Body work reduces grappling efficiency over time
- • Daukaus striking defense gap in pocket exchanges
- • Simulations favor Pereira in space
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Daukaus submission chains off clinch pressure
- • Potential late-round pace dip for Pereira
- • Fence control minutes can sway judges
🏁Executive Summary
Michel Pereira carries the round-winning tools at range—shot selection, body investment, and exit framing—while Kyle Daukausowns the leverage in clinch cycles—head position, mat returns, and submission chains. Damage vs control will define the cards.
Model leans 63–37 to Michel Pereira with most equity in a decision, butKyle Daukaus remains live in R2–R3 via sustained clinch control and back takes. First clean read: who wins the first extended clinch tree.
Recommendation: Small edge to Michel Pereira. Risk factors revolve around fence minutes accumulating and judges rewarding control. Keep live betting eyes on entry success rates and exit damage.