Austin Hubbard vs Rongzhu
Men's Lightweight Bout • UFC Fight Night
Saturday, August 23, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Austin Hubbard
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-29 | MarQuel Mederos | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-10-05 | Alexander Hernandez | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-04-27 | Michal Figlak | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-08-19 | Kurt Holobaugh | L | Submission - Triangle Choke (R2, 2:39) |
| 2022-07-23 | Julian Lane | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Rongzhu
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-08 | Kody Steele | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-09-07 | Chris Padilla | L | TKO - Doctor Stoppage (R2, 4:14) |
| 2024-02-03 | Shin Haraguchi | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R3, 3:06) |
| 2023-08-27 | Sang Uk Kim | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-05-28 | Sung Chan Hong | W | TKO - Ground Punches (R1, 2:17) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (50 vs 52) and Grappling Composite (36 vs 49). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🛡️ Austin Hubbard Key Advantages
Elite defensive striking (57% vs 50%) and takedown defense (68% vs 84%) create fortress-like protection
Superior cardio score (80.2 vs 56.5) and proven five round durability in championship fights
0.80 takedowns per 15min vs 0.11 - can pressure and control fight geography when needed
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Pereira's knockout power (83% finish rate) and reach advantage create danger in pocket exchanges
Must weather Pereira's early power and precision before cardio advantages take effect
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use superior defensive metrics to slip strikes and counter with calculated precision
Survive early danger and push pace in rounds 4-5 where cardio advantage becomes decisive
🚀 Rongzhu Key Advantages
Elite one-shot knockout power with 10 KO/TKO wins - can end fight with single clean strike
Superior striking accuracy (82% vs 53%) and volume (5.00 vs 3.66 SLpM) create constant pressure
Significant reach advantage (79" vs 75") and height edge allow control of striking distance
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Cardio disadvantage becomes critical in championship rounds where Ankalaev thrives
Ankalaev's wrestling volume and superior takedown defense could neutralize striking advantages
📋 Likely Gameplan
Press the action early with power strikes before cardio disadvantage becomes factor
Utilize reach advantage to keep Ankalaev at distance and pick shots with precision
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Championship Dynamics
This light heavyweight title rematch presents a fascinating tactical chess match between Ankalaev's methodical defensive approach and Pereira's explosive knockout power. Having already defeated Pereira once via unanimous decision, Ankalaev enters with both psychological and tactical advantages. His superior defensive metrics (57% striking defense vs 54%) and exceptional takedown defense (88% vs 79%) create a defensive fortress that has proven difficult for power strikers to penetrate.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals contrasting strengths that could determine the outcome. Ankalaev's 42% cardio advantage (80.2 vs 56.5) becomes increasingly important in championship rounds where his wrestling pressure (0.80 vs 0.11 takedowns per 15 minutes) provides alternative pathways to victory. However, Pereira's striking advantages are substantial: 17% better accuracy (82% vs 53%), 37% higher volume (5.00 vs 3.66 SLpM), and devastating knockout power with an 83% finish rate that creates constant danger.
⚡Key Battle Areas
The fight will likely be determined by timing and conditioning. Pereira's window of opportunity exists primarily in the first three rounds, where his power and reach advantage (79" vs 75") are most effective. His ability to land clean shots early could negate Ankalaev's late- round advantages. Conversely, Ankalaev's path to victory involves weathering the early storm, utilizing his superior defensive metrics to minimize damage, and pushing the pace in championship rounds where his cardio superiority becomes decisive.
🏁Final Prediction
While Pereira possesses the tools to score a knockout victory and his striking advantages are legitimate, Ankalaev's proven ability to neutralize his opponent's power, combined with superior defensive metrics and championship-level conditioning, gives him the slight edge. The 60-40 split reflects the quality of both fighters and the championship variables at play. Expect a competitive rematch that likely goes the distance, with the winner emerging through either Pereira's explosive power or Ankalaev's patient defensive discipline and late-round superiority ultimately prevail, likely resulting in a decision victory for the challenger.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 28% | Market: ~28%
FAIR VALUE
Model: 37% | Market: ~37%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 58.3% | Market: 55.0%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overvalues Rongzhu's finishing ability - Market doesn't account for Hubbard's improved defensive metrics
- • Undervalues Hubbard's cardio advantages - Superior cardio score and experience not properly priced
- • Recency bias toward power striking - Market overreacts to Rongzhu's knockout victories
- • Ignores takedown efficiency statistics - Rongzhu's 62% TDA vs Hubbard's 31% creates opportunity
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Hubbard
Primary path to victory via cardio and defense
Counter striking opportunities in later rounds
Rare but possible via wrestling pressure
💥Outcome Distribution - Rongzhu
Main finishing method - one-shot power
Less likely due to cardio disadvantage
Minimal submission threat historically
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Rongzhu
- • First 10 minutes: Maximum striking advantage and TDD effectiveness
- • Rounds 1-2: 70% of his finishes occur here (12 R1 + 5 R2)
- • Distance control: Must utilize reach and aggressive striking early
- • Energy management: Avoid extended grappling exchanges
🎯Progressive Dominance - Hubbard
- • Round 3: Cardio experience and defensive discipline emerge
- • Accumulation: Superior defensive striking wears down opponent over time
- • Wrestling threat: Consistent takedown pressure throughout all rounds
- • Decision path: Higher win rate via decisions in championship rounds
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level: 6/10 - Competitive rematch with multiple variables
Confidence Level
Moderate confidence due to stylistic complexity
✅Supporting Factors
- • Rongzhu's superior finishing ability
- • Higher striking volume and accuracy
- • Excellent takedown defense
- • Strong youth and athleticism edge
- • Historical finish rate advantage
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Hubbard's superior defensive metrics
- • Cardio disadvantage in later rounds
- • Hubbard's experience advantage
- • Potential wrestling pressure
- • Lightweight division volatility
🏁Executive Summary
This lightweight bout represents a fascinating tactical chess match between Hubbard's veteran defensive approach and Rongzhu's explosive knockout power. While Hubbard brings superior experience and cardio conditioning, Rongzhu's 84.6% finish rate and proven finishing ability (14 KO/TKO wins) create legitimate pathways to victory, especially in the early rounds where his power and reach advantage are most effective.
The statistical analysis favors Rongzhu's defensive metrics and superior cardio, but Rongzhu's finishing potency and improved UFC performance suggest the market may have undervalued his growth trajectory. The key factors include Rongzhu's ability to maintain distance and utilize his superior striking accuracy versus Hubbard's wrestling pressure and championship-level conditioning in the later rounds.
Prediction: Rongzhu's proven ability to neutralize takedown threats combined with his knockout power, superior striking metrics, and excellent takedown defense gives him the edge in what should be a competitive 3-round battle. The 65-35 edge reflects the genuine uncertainty in this stylistic matchup, with the winner likely emerging through either Rongzhu's explosive early aggression or Hubbard's patient defensive discipline ultimately prevail, likely resulting in a decision victory for the challenger.