Kenan Song vs Kiefer Crosbie
Men's Welterweight Bout • UFC Fight Night
Saturday, August 23, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
UFC Veteran Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Technical Prospect Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Kenan Song
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-17 | Ricky Glenn | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-08-26 | Rolando Bedoya | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-03-04 | Muslim Salikhov | L | KO/TKO - Spinning Kick (R1, 3:49) |
| 2022-11-19 | Ian Garry | L | TKO - Punches (R3, 4:22) |
| 2021-03-20 | Max Griffin | L | KO/TKO - Punches (R1, 2:15) |
Last 5 Fights - Kiefer Crosbie
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-27 | Sam Patterson | L | Submission - Arm Triangle (R1, 2:50) |
| 2023-09-09 | Kevin Jousset | L | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 4:49) |
| 2023-04-01 | Alex Oliveira | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 4:14) |
| 2022-07-02 | Brian Lo-A-Njoe | W | TKO - Ground and Pound (R1, 1:28) |
| 2021-07-31 | Georgi Karakhanyan | L | Submission - Arm Triangle (R1, 4:25) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (67 vs 75) and Grappling Composite (52 vs 100). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Kenan Song Key Advantages
Elite one-shot knockout power with 0.7 knockdowns per 15 minutes - significant finishing threat
Massive experience advantage with 11 UFC fights vs Crosbie's 2 fights - octagon-proven
Significant reach advantage (71.5" vs 70") and height edge allow control of striking distance
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Crosbie's perfect takedown defense and submission threat could neutralize wrestling attempts
Crosbie's superior striking volume and accuracy could overwhelm in extended exchanges
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use reach advantage and power to counter Crosbie's volume with precise, heavy shots
Press early action to capitalize on knockout power before Crosbie finds rhythm
🚀 Kiefer Crosbie Key Advantages
Superior striking accuracy (52% vs 47%) and volume (6.61 vs 4.49 SLpM) create constant pressure
Perfect takedown defense neutralizes Song's wrestling attempts and forces standup battle
Only fighter with submission attempts (0.34 per 15min) creates unique finishing threat
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Song's knockout power and reach advantage could end fight with single clean shot
Limited UFC experience could show against veteran Song in high-pressure moments
📋 Likely Gameplan
Overwhelm with superior striking output and precision to accumulate damage
Mix in takedown attempts and submission threats to create additional finishing opportunities
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🥊Experience vs Technique
This welterweight clash presents a fascinating dynamic between Song's proven octagon experience and Crosbie's superior technical skills. Song's 11 UFC fights provide invaluable experience in high-pressure situations, while his knockout power (0.7 KD per 15min) creates constant finishing threat. However, Crosbie's technical superiority is undeniable - his 47% higher striking output, superior accuracy, and perfect takedown defense create legitimate pathways to victory.
⚡Key Battle Areas
The fight will likely be determined by whether Song can land his knockout shots early or if Crosbie can weather the storm and impose his technical game. Song's reach advantage and power create early windows for victory, while Crosbie's superior volume and precision suggest he improves as the fight progresses. Crosbie's perfect takedown defense eliminates Song's wrestling as a factor, forcing a purely striking battle where technique meets power.
🔮Final Prediction
While Crosbie possesses superior technical metrics and finishing rate, Song's octagon experience and knockout power give him the edge in this matchup. The 65-35 split reflects Song's proven ability to perform under UFC pressure and his dangerous one-shot power. Expect Song to utilize his experience advantage and reach to control distance early, looking for the knockout opportunity while respecting Crosbie's volume and precision. This fight likely ends via Song's power or Crosbie's accumulated technical damage over three rounds.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 28% | Market: ~24%
FAIR VALUE
Model: 37% | Market: ~37%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 58.5% | Market: 55%
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Song
Main finishing method - one-shot power
Less likely due to cardio disadvantage
Rare but possible wrestling advantage
💥Outcome Distribution - Crosbie
Volume accumulation method
Technical point fighting path
Unique finishing threat historically
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level: 7/10 - Competitive rematch with multiple variables
Confidence Level
Good confidence due to clear experience advantage
✅Supporting Factors
- • Song's proven UFC experience
- • Superior knockout power credentials
- • Reach and physical advantages
- • Strong recent form (2-fight win streak)
- • Historical power vs technique patterns
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Crosbie's superior technical metrics
- • Perfect takedown defense neutralizes wrestling
- • Higher striking volume and accuracy
- • Unique submission threat
- • Welterweight division volatility
🏁Executive Summary
This welterweight clash presents a compelling battle between Song's proven octagon experience and knockout power against Crosbie's superior technical skills and perfect takedown defense. Song enters with significant advantages in UFC experience (11 fights vs 2), knockout power (0.7 KD rate), and physical attributes, while riding a 2-fight win streak that has restored confidence.
However, Crosbie's technical superiority is undeniable - his 47% higher striking output, superior accuracy, and perfect takedown defense create legitimate pathways to victory. His unique submission threat adds another dimension that Song hasn't faced from his recent opponents.
Prediction: Song's experience advantage and knockout power give him the edge in what should be a competitive standup battle. Expect Song to utilize his reach and power early while respecting Crosbie's volume and precision. The fight likely ends via Song's power shots or evolves into a technical battle where Song's experience proves decisive over three rounds.