Lone'er Kavanagh vs Charles Johnson
UFC Men's Flyweight Division • UFC Fight Night
Saturday, August 23, 2025
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Prospect Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Contender Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Lone'er Kavanagh
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-22 | Felipe dos Santos | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-11-23 | Jose Ochoa | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-08-13 | An Tuan Ho | W | TKO - Left Hook (R1, 2:35) |
| 2024-03-30 | Shawn Marcos da Silva | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-03-17 | Davide Scarano | W | TKO - Spinning Heel-Kick & Punches (R3, 0:58) |
Last 5 Fights - Charles Johnson
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-01 | Ramazan Temirov | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-10-19 | Su Mudaerji | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-07-13 | Joshua Van | W | KO - Right Uppercut (R3, 0:20) |
| 2024-05-11 | Jake Hadley | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-03 | Azat Maksum | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (49 vs 51) and Grappling Composite (47 vs 28). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Lone'er Kavanagh Key Advantages
1.85 takedowns per 15min vs 0.50 - massive grappling pressure advantage with perfect 100% TDD
25-year-old undefeated prospect with 9 years age advantage and perfect winning momentum
Superior striking defense (62% vs 58%) with elite takedown defense creates fortress-like protection
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
3" reach and height disadvantage forces constant pressure to close distance against experienced striker
Lower striking output (3.73 vs 4.74 SLpM) could lose rounds if takedowns fail to materialize
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use constant takedown threats to close distance, control position for rounds, neutralize Johnson's striking output
Control center of octagon, force exchanges in pocket where reach advantage diminishes
🚀 Charles Johnson Key Advantages
Superior striking rate (4.74 vs 3.73 SLpM) with consistent pressure and volume scoring ability
Significant reach (70" vs 67") and height advantages allow control of distance and striking range
Superior cardio score (72 vs 64) with 11 UFC fights experience vs 2 for young prospect
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Kavanagh's relentless takedown attempts could neutralize striking advantages and force defensive wrestling
Defending constant wrestling pressure in later rounds could reduce striking effectiveness and volume
📋 Likely Gameplan
Utilize reach advantage to keep Kavanagh at distance, pump jab and straight punches to control pace
Maintain high striking output to win rounds on volume, use footwork to avoid takedown attempts
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Prospect vs Veteran Dynamics
This flyweight bout presents a classic prospect vs veteran dynamic where Kavanagh's undefeated momentum and youthful energy meets Johnson's experience and proven UFC durability. The statistical analysis reveals contrasting strengths that create genuine uncertainty about the outcome, with Kavanagh's wrestling control (1.85 TD/15min vs 0.50) potentially neutralizing Johnson's superior striking volume (4.74 vs 3.73 SLpM).
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical comparison reveals complementary strengths rather than overwhelming advantages. Kavanagh's perfect 100% takedown defense and superior grappling composite (47 vs 28) contrasts with Johnson's 27% higher striking output and significant reach advantage. The key battle lies in whether Kavanagh can implement his wrestling game plan against an experienced veteran who has shown improved defensive wrestling in recent performances.
⚡Key Battle Areas
The fight will likely be determined by three critical phases: the opening exchanges where Johnson's reach and striking volume could establish early control; the wrestling transitions where Kavanagh's takedown attempts meet Johnson's experience; and the later rounds where cardio becomes paramount. Johnson's superior cardio score (72 vs 64) could become decisive if the fight remains competitive into the third round.
🔮Final Prediction
Kavanagh's youth, perfect record, and wrestling advantages give him a slight edge, but Johnson's experience, physical advantages, and proven striking ability create multiple paths to victory. The 58-42 split reflects the genuine competitiveness of this matchup. Expect a tactical battle where Kavanagh's pressure wrestling meets Johnson's range management, with the winner likely emerging through either sustained grappling control or superior striking volume and range management.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Key Market Discrepancies
POTENTIAL VALUE
Model: 30% | Expected market: ~22%
POTENTIAL VALUE
Model: 26% | Expected market: ~18%
BALANCED
Model: 55.6% | Expected market: ~52%
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Kavanagh
Primary path via wrestling control and cardio advantage
Counter-striking opportunities in later rounds
Rare but possible if wrestling succeeds
💥Outcome Distribution - Johnson
Volume striking with range control
Late-fight accumulation from volume striking
Minimal submission threat historically
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level: 6/10 - Competitive rematch with multiple variables
Confidence Level
Moderate confidence due to contrasting fighting styles
✅Supporting Factors
- • Kavanagh's perfect takedown defense
- • Superior wrestling volume and control
- • Youth and undefeated momentum
- • Strong cardio for 3 rounds
- • Proven finishing ability
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Johnson's significant reach advantage
- • Superior striking output and volume
- • UFC experience advantage
- • Proven ability against wrestlers
- • Flyweight division unpredictability
🏁Executive Summary
This flyweight bout represents an intriguing clash between Kavanagh's undefeated wrestling-based approach and Johnson's veteran striking experience. The statistical analysis reveals a close matchup where Kavanagh's wrestling volume (1.85 TD/15min vs 0.50) and perfect defensive wrestling create clear paths to victory, while Johnson's superior striking output (+27%) and physical advantages present equally viable routes.
The key variables include Kavanagh's ability to implement his wrestling game plan against an experienced UFC veteran who has shown improved defensive capabilities in recent fights. Johnson's reach advantage and superior cardio score could become decisive factors if he can neutralize the takedown threats and force a striking battle.
Prediction: Kavanagh's youth, perfect record, and wrestling advantages give him a slight edge in what should be a competitive three-round battle. The 58-42 split reflects genuine uncertainty, with the winner likely emerging through either sustained grappling control or superior striking volume and range management.