Diyar Nurgozhay vs Uran Satybaldiev
Light Heavyweight Bout • UFC Fight Night
Saturday, August 23, 2025
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Diyar Nurgozhay
Last 5 Fights - Uran Satybaldiev
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Nurgozhay advantage: 79.4%Cardio Score
Nurgozhay advantage: 14.2%Overall Rating
Nurgozhay advantage: 22.2%Striking Composite
Nurgozhay advantage: 26.3%Grappling Composite
Nurgozhay advantage: Infinity%Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (89.7 vs 57.3) and Grappling Composite (61.5 vs 32.1). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish data. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
Strikes Landed/Min
Striking Accuracy
Striking Defense
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Takedowns/15min
Takedown Accuracy
Takedown Defense
Submissions/15min
🥊Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆Diyar Nurgozhay Key Advantages
Defensive Excellence
Superior metricsElite defensive striking (57% vs 54%) and takedown defense (88% vs 79%) create fortress-like protection
Championship Cardio
+42% advantageSuperior cardio score (80.2 vs 56.5) and proven five-round durability in championship fights
Wrestling Pressure
+627% volume0.80 takedowns per 15min vs 0.11 - can pressure and control fight geography when needed
🚀Uran Satybaldiev Key Advantages
Knockout Power
83% finish rateElite one-shot knockout power with 10 KO/TKO wins - can end fight with single clean strike
Striking Precision
+17% accuracySuperior striking accuracy (62% vs 53%) and volume (5.00 vs 3.66 SLpM) create constant pressure
Physical Advantages
+4" reachSignificant reach advantage (79" vs 75") and height edge allow control of striking distance
⚠️Unfavorable Scenarios
Power Striking Exchanges
Satybaldiev's knockout power (83% finish rate) and reach advantage create danger in pocket exchanges
Early Round Aggression
Must weather Satybaldiev's early power and precision before cardio advantages take effect
⚠️Unfavorable Scenarios
Late Round Fatigue
Cardio disadvantage becomes critical in championship rounds where Nurgozhay thrives
Wrestling Pressure
Nurgozhay's wrestling volume and superior takedown defense could neutralize striking advantages
📋Likely Gameplan
Defensive Counter-Striking
Use superior defensive metrics to slip strikes and counter with calculated precision
Championship Rounds
Survive early danger and push pace in rounds 4-5 where cardio advantage becomes decisive
📋Likely Gameplan
Early Aggression
Press the action early with power strikes before cardio disadvantage becomes factor
Range Control
Utilize reach advantage to keep Nurgozhay at distance and pick shots with precision
🔮Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
70%
Diyar Nurgozhay Win Probability
Strong chances based on defensive metrics and cardio
30%
Uran Satybaldiev Win Probability
Strong chance with superior striking power and precision
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
Championship Dynamics
This light heavyweight matchup presents a fascinating tactical chess match between Nurgozhay's methodical defensive approach and Satybaldiev's knockout power. As their first meeting, Nurgozhay enters with both psychological and tactical advantages. His superior defensive metrics (57% striking defense vs 54%) and exceptional takedown defense (88% vs 79%) create a defensive fortress that has proven difficult for power strikers to penetrate.
Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals contrasting strengths that could determine the outcome. Nurgozhay's 42% cardio advantage (80.2 vs 56.5) becomes increasingly important in championship rounds where his defensive discipline ultimately prevails. However, Satybaldiev's 17% striking accuracy advantage (62% vs 53%) and devastating knockout power with an 83% finish rate create legitimate pathways to victory, especially in the early storm where his power and reach advantage are most effective.
Key Battle Areas
The fight will be determined by timing and conditioning. Satybaldiev's window of opportunity exists primarily in the first three rounds, where his power and reach advantage (79" vs 75") are most effective. His ability to land clean shots early could negate Nurgozhay's late-round advantages. Conversely, Nurgozhay's path to victory involves weathering the early storm, utilizing his superior defensive metrics and championship conditioning, especially in the late rounds where his cardio superiority becomes decisive.
Final Prediction
While Satybaldiev possesses the tools to score a knockout victory and his striking advantages are substantial, Nurgozhay's proven ability to neutralize his opponent's power, combined with superior defensive metrics and championship conditioning, gives him the slight edge. The 70-30 split reflects the quality of both fighters and the multiple pathways each has to victory. Expect a tactical battle where defensive discipline and late-round cardio ultimately prevail, likely resulting in a decision victory for the challenger to reclaim his title UFC championship.
💰Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
Nurgozhay by Decision (-235)
Satybaldiev by KO/TKO (+170)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-122)
🔮Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Nurgozhay
By Decision
35%Primary path to victory via cardio and defense
By KO/TKO
20%Counter-striking opportunities in later rounds
By Submission
15%Rare but possible via wrestling pressure
⚡Outcome Distribution - Satybaldiev
By KO/TKO
20%Main finishing method - one-shot power
By Decision
9%Less likely due to cardio disadvantage
By Submission
1%Minimal submission threat historically
⏱️Fight Timeline Analysis
Power shots, reach control
Still dangerous, still trying
Cardio swap becomes decisive
⚖️Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level: 7/10 - Competitive first-time matchup with multiple variables
📈Supporting Factors
Defensive Metrics
Nurgozhay's proven defensive skills create reliable foundation
Cardio Advantage
Significant conditioning edge becomes decisive in championship rounds
First Meeting
This is the first meeting between these two fighters, adding unpredictability
⚠️Risk Factors
Knockout Power
Satybaldiev's 83% finish rate means one mistake could end fight
Striking Accuracy
Superior precision (62% vs 53%) creates legitimate pathways to victory
Unknown Variables
First-time matchup creates unpredictable dynamics and adjustments
📋Executive Summary
This light heavyweight matchup presents a fascinating tactical battle between two promising fighters. As their first meeting, this fight carries additional unpredictability as neither fighter has faced the other's specific style and approach before, while Satybaldiev's knockout power ensures that early exchanges carry potential fight-ending consequences.
The statistical analysis favors Nurgozhay's defensive metrics and superior cardio, particularly in championship rounds where his 42% cardio advantage becomes decisive. However, Satybaldiev's 17% striking accuracy advantage and 83% finish rate create legitimate pathways to victory, especially in the early rounds where his power and reach advantage are most effective.
Prediction: Nurgozhay's superior defensive metrics and conditioning give him the edge in this first-time matchup. Expect a tactical battle where defensive discipline and late-round cardio ultimately prevail, likely resulting in a decision victory for Nurgozhay.