Sumudaerji vs Kevin Borjas
Men's Flyweight Bout • UFC Fight Night
Saturday, August 23, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Sumudaerji
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-12 | Mitch Raposo | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-10-19 | Charles Johnson | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-12-09 | Allan Nascimento | L | TKO - Doctor Stoppage (R3, 4:45) |
| 2022-07-16 | Matt Schnell | L | Submission - Triangle Choke (R2, 3:24) |
| 2021-01-20 | Zarrukh Adashev | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Kevin Borjas
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-29 | Ronaldo Rodríguez | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-05-04 | Alessandro Costa | L | TKO - Leg Kicks (R2, 1:35) |
| 2023-11-11 | Joshua Van | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-08-08 | Victor Dias | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-09-25 | Tião Calixto | W | TKO - Retirement (R4, 0:02) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (86 vs 63) and Grappling Composite (76 vs 49). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🦅 Sumudaerji Key Advantages
Elite defensive striking (60% vs 51%) and takedown defense (68% vs 65%) create fortress-like protection
Superior cardio score (68 vs 56) and proven five-round durability in championship fights
0.80 takedowns per 15min vs 0.11 - can pressure and control fight geography when needed
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Borjas's knockout power (80% finish rate) and reach advantage create danger in pocket exchanges
Must weather Borjas's early power and precision before cardio advantages take effect
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use superior defensive metrics to slip strikes and counter with calculated precision
Survive early danger and push pace in rounds 4-5 where cardio advantage becomes decisive
🐓 Kevin Borjas Key Advantages
Elite one-shot knockout power with 10 KO/TKO wins - can end fight with single clean strike
Superior striking accuracy (62% vs 53%) and volume (5.00 vs 3.66 SLpM) create constant pressure
Significant reach advantage (79" vs 75") and height edge allow control of striking distance
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Cardio disadvantage becomes critical in championship rounds where Ankalaev thrives
Ankalaev's wrestling volume and superior takedown defense could neutralize striking advantages
📋 Likely Gameplan
Press the action early with power strikes before cardio disadvantage becomes factor
Utilize reach advantage to keep Ankalaev at distance and pick shots with precision
🔮 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
Sumudaerji Win Probability
Slight favorite based on defensive metrics and cardio
Kevin Borjas Win Probability
Strong chance with superior striking power and precision
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
👑Championship Dynamics
This light heavyweight title rematch presents a fascinating tactical chess match between Ankalaev's methodical defensive approach and Pereira's explosive knockout power. Having already defeated Pereira once via unanimous decision, Ankalaev enters with both psychological and tactical advantages. His superior defensive metrics (57% striking defense vs 54%) and exceptional takedown defense (88% vs 79%) create a defensive fortress that has proven difficult for power strikers to penetrate.
⚔️Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals contrasting strengths that could determine the outcome. Ankalaev's 42% cardio advantage (80.2 vs 56.5) becomes increasingly important in championship rounds, where his superior wrestling pressure (0.80 vs 0.11 takedowns per 15 minutes) provides alternative pathways to victory. However, Pereira's striking advantage are substantial: 17% better accuracy (62% vs 53%), 37% higher volume (5.00 vs 3.66 SLpM), and devastating knockout power with an 83% finish rate.
🎯Key Battle Areas
The fight likely hinges on timing and conditioning. Pereira's window of opportunity exists primarily in the first three rounds, where his power and reach advantage (79" vs 75") are most effective. His ability to land clean shots early could negate Ankalaev's late-round advantages. Conversely, Ankalaev's path to victory involves weathering the early storm, utilizing superior defensive metrics to minimize damage, and pushing the pace in championship rounds where cardio disparity becomes decisive.
🏁Final Prediction
While Pereira possesses the tools to score a knockout and his striking advantages are legitimate, Ankalaev's proven ability to neutralize his opponent's power, combined with superior defensive metrics and championship-level conditioning, gives him the slight edge. Expect a tactical battle where defensive discipline and late-round cardio ultimately prevail, likely resulting in a decision victory for the Tibetan Eagle to continue his UFC journey.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
Sumudaerji by Decision (+257)
Kevin Borjas by KO/TKO (+1170)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-122)
🔮 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🦅Outcome Distribution - Sumudaerji
Primary path to victory via cardio and defense
Counter-striking opportunities in later rounds
Rare but possible via wrestling pressure
🐓Outcome Distribution - Borjas
Main finishing method - one-shot power
Less likely due to cardio disadvantage
Minimal submission threat historically
⏱️Fight Timeline Analysis
Round by Round Probability Analysis (3 Round Fight)
🎖️ Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level: 8/10 - Competitive rematch with multiple variables
Confidence Level
High confidence due to clear defensive advantages
✅Supporting Factors
- • Sumudaerji's defensive superiority
- • Proven wrestling advantage
- • Superior cardio metrics
- • Strong late-round finishing ability
- • Historical flyweight patterns
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Borjas's 80% finish rate
- • Superior striking volume
- • Physical reach advantage
- • Dangerous early in fights
- • Flyweight division volatility
🏁Executive Summary
This flyweight bout represents a fascinating tactical chess match between Sumudaerji's elite defensive approach and Borjas's explosive knockout power. Sumudaerji's superior defensive metrics (60% striking defense vs 51%) and proven cardio advantage create clear paths to victory, while Borjas's 80% finish rate and reach advantage present significant obstacles.
The statistical analysis favors Sumudaerji's defensive metrics and superior cardio, while Borjas's knockout power creates genuine uncertainty. Our model suggests Sumudaerji's proven ability to neutralize power strikers and superior late-round conditioning provide the edge in a competitive matchup.
Prediction: Sumudaerji's proven ability to neutralize his opponent's power, combined with superior defensive metrics and championship-level conditioning, gives him the edge. Expect a tactical battle where defensive discipline and late-round cardio ultimately prevail, likely resulting in a decision victory for the Tibetan Eagle to continue his UFC journey.