Sergei Pavlovich vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta
UFC Fight Night: Shanghai, China
Saturday, August 23, 2025
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Sergei Pavlovich
19-3-0
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Waldo Cortes-Acosta
14-1-0
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Sergei Pavlovich
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-01 | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | W | Decision - Unanimous (3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-22 | Alexander Volkov | L | Decision - Unanimous (3, 5:00) |
| 2023-11-11 | Tom Aspinall | L | TKO (punches) (1, 1:09) |
| 2023-04-22 | Curtis Blaydes | W | TKO (punches) (1, 3:08) |
| 2022-12-03 | Tai Tuivasa | W | TKO (punches) (1, 0:54) |
Last 5 Fights - Waldo Cortes-Acosta
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-07 | Serghei Spivac | W | Decision - Unanimous (3, 5:00) |
| 2025-03-15 | Ryan Spann | W | TKO (punches) (2, 4:48) |
| 2024-05-11 | Robelis Despaigne | W | Decision - Unanimous (3, 5:00) |
| 2024-01-13 | Andrei Arlovski | W | Decision - Unanimous (3, 5:00) |
| 2023-08-26 | Łukasz Brzeski | W | TKO (punches) (1, 3:01) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (85 vs 70) and Grappling Composite (50 vs 45). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Sergei Pavlovich Key Advantages
Massive reach advantage (84" vs 70") with devastating knockout power (85.7% finish rate)
79% of career wins come in Round 1 - devastating early finishing ability
Left-handed stance creates awkward angles against orthodox opponent
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Cardio limitations become critical if fight extends past first round
Volume striking exchanges could expose cardio disadvantage over time
📋 Likely Gameplan
Press forward immediately, utilize reach advantage before cardio disadvantage emerges
Use stance to create awkward angles and land left straight down the pipe
🚀 Waldo Cortes-Acosta Key Advantages
Much longer average fight duration (11:50 vs 4:47) - significant cardio advantage
Higher striking output (5.98 vs 4.54 SLpM) with better accuracy (49% vs 44%)
Riding 5-fight win streak vs Pavlovich coming off decision loss
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Vulnerable to early knockout power - must survive first round storm
14-inch reach deficit forces him into dangerous pocket range
📋 Likely Gameplan
Weather early storm, use movement to survive R1, capitalize on cardio advantage
Maintain high output, force Pavlovich to work at uncomfortable pace
🎯Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Power vs Cardio Dynamic
This heavyweight bout presents a classic power vs endurance matchup. Pavlovich enters as a -300 favorite due to his devastating first-round finishing ability (15 of 19 career wins in Round 1) and massive reach advantage (84" vs 70"). His 85.7% finish rate demonstrates elite knockout power that can end the fight instantly. However, his average fight duration of just 4:47 indicates significant cardio limitations that become pronounced if the fight extends beyond the opening round.
🎯Cortes-Acosta's Path to Victory
The 25% win probability for Cortes-Acosta reflects his ability to survive the early storm and capitalize on superior conditioning. His 5-fight win streak and much longer average fight duration (11:50) suggest he can maintain pace throughout all three rounds. With better volume output (5.98 vs 4.54 SLpM) and accuracy (49% vs 44%), he has clear pathways to victory if he can weather the opening minutes where Pavlovich's power is most dangerous.
🔮Fight Timeline Prediction
Statistical analysis indicates a 60% probability of early finish (Rounds 1-2) driven primarily by Pavlovich's knockout power. The remaining 40% favor extended exchanges where Cortes-Acosta's cardio advantage becomes decisive. The large cage environment slightly favors the underdog by providing additional space to avoid early power shots and implement a movement-based strategy. Key factor: Pavlovich's ability to close distance early versus Cortes-Acosta's survival skills.
💰Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
STRONG VALUE
Model: 35.7% | Expected: ~+180
FAIR VALUE
Model: 60% | Expected: ~-150
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 25% | Expected: +300
🎯Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Pavlovich
Main finishing method - raw fight-ending power
Limited path due to cardio disadvantage
Rare but possible in scrambles
💥Outcome Distribution - Cortes-Acosta
Primary path through volume and cardio
Late-round accumulation damage
Minimal submission threat historically
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Rounds)
🎯Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level: 8/10 - Clear power vs cardio dynamic with decisive advantages
Confidence Level
High confidence due to clear physical and stylistic advantages
✅Supporting Factors
- • Massive reach advantage (14 inches)
- • Elite knockout power (85.7% finish rate)
- • Southpaw vs orthodox advantage
- • Strong takedown defense
- • R1 specialist (15/19 wins)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Cardio limitations past R1
- • Cortes-Acosta's 5-fight streak
- • Volume striking disadvantage
- • Extended fight scenarios
- • Heavyweight division volatility
🏁Executive Summary
This heavyweight clash epitomizes the classic power vs conditioning matchup in modern MMA. Pavlovich enters with overwhelming physical advantages - a massive 14-inch reach advantage, devastating southpaw power (85.7% finish rate), and proven ability to end fights in Round 1 (15 of 19 career wins). His knockout power represents a constant threat that can neutralize any tactical advantages his opponent might possess.
Cortes-Acosta's path to victory centers on survival and cardio exploitation. His superior conditioning (11:50 vs 4:47 average fight duration) and higher volume output (5.98 vs 4.54 SLpM) create legitimate pathways to victory if he can navigate the opening storm. The 25% win probability reflects both his underdog status and the genuine threat posed by his five-fight win streak and volume-based approach.
Prediction: Pavlovich's reach and power advantages, combined with his proven finishing ability, make him a deserving 3-to-1 favorite. The statistical model heavily favors early finishes (60% probability in first two rounds), aligning with Pavlovich's historical pattern. Expect an explosive start where Pavlovich's reach and southpaw angles create immediate danger, likely resulting in a first-round knockout victory for the Russian powerhouse.