Michel Pereira vs Marco Tulio
Men's Middleweight Bout • UFC Fight Night
Saturday, August 23, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Veteran Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Prospect Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Michel Pereira
Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
---|---|---|---|
2025-04-26 | Abus Magomedov | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
2024-10-19 | Anthony Hernandez | L | TKO - Ground-and-Pound (R5, 2:22) |
2024-05-04 | Ihor Potieria | W | Submission - Standing Guillotine (R1, 0:54) |
2024-03-09 | Michał Oleksiejczuk | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 1:01) |
2023-10-14 | Andre Petroski | W | TKO - Punches + GNP (R1, 1:06) |
Last 5 Fights - Marco Tulio
Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
---|---|---|---|
2025-04-12 | Tresean Gore | W | TKO - Straight Right (R2, 3:16) |
2025-01-11 | Ihor Potieria | W | TKO - Right Hook (R1, 3:04) |
2024-08-27 | Matthieu Duclos | W | TKO - Spinning Back Kick + Punches (R2, 2:38) |
2024-01-27 | Cemey dos Santos | W | TKO - Straight Right (R2, 2:20) |
2023-08-29 | Yousri Belgaroui | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (74 vs 86) and Grappling Composite (68 vs 55). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Michel Pereira Key Advantages
Vastly superior UFC experience (13 vs 2 fights) with seasoned ability to handle pressure and diverse opponents
Superior cardio score (76 vs 68) and average fight duration suggest better conditioning for a 3-round war
Higher submission rate (0.72 vs 0.44 per 15min) and grappling composite provide finish threat from ground
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Tulio's superior striking volume and accuracy could dominate in extended standing exchanges
Tulio's knockout power (78.6% finish rate) could end fight before experience advantage matters
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use takedown attempts and clinch work to neutralize Tulio's striking advantages
Push pace in round 3 where cardio advantage becomes decisive factor
🚀 Marco Tulio Key Advantages
Elite finishing ability with 10 KO/TKO wins - can end fight with single clean shot
Superior striking accuracy (60% vs 52%) and volume (7.54 vs 4.5 SLpM) create efficiency advantage
Reach advantage (74.5" vs 73") provides distance control and ability to stay safe while striking
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Extended ground time could expose Tulio to Pereira's superior submission threat
Cardio disadvantage becomes critical in round 3 where Pereira typically thrives
📋 Likely Gameplan
Press the action early with power shots before cardio disadvantage becomes factor
Use reach advantage to keep Pereira at distance and avoid grappling exchanges
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Experience vs Youth
This middleweight clash represents a classic experience versus rising prospect matchup. Pereira's 13 UFC fights provide tactical knowledge and proven ability to handle adversity, while Tulio's 2-0 UFC record showcases explosive potential but limited high-level experience. The statistical analysis reveals Tulio's striking superiority (60% vs 52% accuracy, 7.54 vs 4.5 SLpM) balanced against Pereira's proven cardio advantage and grappling threat.
⚡Key Battle Areas
The fight outcome hinges on whether Tulio can capitalize on his striking advantages before Pereira's experience and cardio become decisive factors. Tulio's 78.6% finish rate and knockout power create legitimate early finish opportunities, but Pereira's superior conditioning (76 vs 68 cardio score) suggests late-round dominance if the fight extends. The grappling exchanges favor Pereira's submission threat and experience.
🔮Final Prediction
Tulio earns the slight edge due to his knockout power and striking precision, but this represents a genuinely competitive matchup where timing and game plan execution will be crucial. The 55-45 split reflects both Tulio's finishing ability and the genuine uncertainty that Pereira's experience and late-round conditioning bring to this stylistic clash. Expect an exciting fight with potential for explosive early finish or tactical decision based on who can implement their preferred fight strategy.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 45% | Market: 40%
EXCELLENT VALUE
Model: 68.3% | Market: 42.6%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 28% | Market: 23.8%
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Pereira
Primary path via cardio and experience
Best potential threat weapon
Less likely due to cardio disadvantage
💥Outcome Distribution - Tulio
Main finishing method - one shot power
Less likely due to cardio disadvantage
Minimal submission threat historically
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level: 6/10 - Competitive matchup with multiple variables
Confidence Level
Moderate confidence due to evenly matched styles
✅Supporting Factors
- • Tulio's knockout power and precision
- • Superior striking accuracy
- • Reach advantage advantage
- • High finish rate (78.6%)
- • Early round explosiveness
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Pereira's UFC experience edge
- • Superior cardio conditioning
- • Submission threat capability
- • Grappling advantage
- • Middleweight division volatility
🏁Executive Summary
This middleweight clash presents a compelling experience versus youth dynamic where rising prospect Marco Tulio faces seasoned veteran Michel Pereira. Tulio enters with clear striking advantages - superior accuracy (60% vs 52%), higher volume (7.54 vs 4.5 SLpM), and devastating knockout power reflected in his 78.6% finish rate. His 14-1 record and 10-fight win streak demonstrate legitimate championship potential.
However, Pereira's 13 UFC fights provide tactical maturity and proven ability to handle adversity that could prove decisive. His superior cardio score (76 vs 68) and experience in high-pressure situations create legitimate pathways to victory, particularly if the fight extends to the later rounds where his conditioning advantage becomes pronounced. The submission threat, while modest, represents additional finishing potential that Tulio's limited UFC experience may struggle to navigate.
Prediction: Tulio's knockout power and striking precision earn him the slight edge, but this represents a genuinely competitive matchup where timing and game plan execution will be crucial. The 55-45 split reflects both Tulio's finishing ability and the genuine uncertainty that Pereira's experience and late-round conditioning bring to this stylistic clash. Expect an exciting fight with potential for explosive early finish or tactical decision based on who can implement their preferred fight strategy.