Middleweight • 3 Rounds

Michel Pereira vs Marco Tulio

Men's Middleweight Bout • UFC Fight Night

Saturday, August 23, 2025

Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles

Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.

Michel Pereira
#7

Michel Pereira

"Demolidor"

31-13-0

🥋 Veteran Fighter

Age:
31+1 year
Height:
6'1"+1" taller
Reach:
73"-1.5" shorter
Leg Reach:
42"+1" advantage

Veteran Metrics

Fighting Style
Striker
Finish Rate
61.3%
Total UFC Fights
13
UFC Record
9-4
Current Streak
1 loss
Longest Win Streak
4
Win Rate
70.5%
Avg Fight Duration
11:09
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Marco Tulio
NR

Marco Tulio

"Puro Osso"

14-1-0

🌟 Rising Prospect

Age:
30Prime age
Height:
6'0"Standard
Reach:
74.5"+1.5" advantage
Leg Reach:
41"Standard

Prospect Metrics

Fighting Style
Striker
Finish Rate
78.6%
Total UFC Fights
2
UFC Record
2-0
Current Streak
14 wins
Longest Win Streak
14
Win Rate
93.3%
Avg Fight Duration
8:30
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution

Last 5 Fights - Michel Pereira

DateOpponentResultMethod
2025-04-26Abus MagomedovLDecision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00)
2024-10-19Anthony HernandezLTKO - Ground-and-Pound (R5, 2:22)
2024-05-04Ihor PotieriaWSubmission - Standing Guillotine (R1, 0:54)
2024-03-09Michał OleksiejczukWSubmission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 1:01)
2023-10-14Andre PetroskiWTKO - Punches + GNP (R1, 1:06)

Last 5 Fights - Marco Tulio

DateOpponentResultMethod
2025-04-12Tresean GoreWTKO - Straight Right (R2, 3:16)
2025-01-11Ihor PotieriaWTKO - Right Hook (R1, 3:04)
2024-08-27Matthieu DuclosWTKO - Spinning Back Kick + Punches (R2, 2:38)
2024-01-27Cemey dos SantosWTKO - Straight Right (R2, 2:20)
2023-08-29Yousri BelgarouiWDecision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00)

Technical Analysis

Technical Score

71/10071/100
Michel
Marco

Cardio Score

76/10068/100
Michel
Marco
Michel advantage: 5.6%

Overall Rating

73.5/10069.5/100
Michel
Marco
Michel advantage: 2.8%
📊 Technical Score

Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (74 vs 86) and Grappling Composite (68 vs 55). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.

💪 Cardio Score

Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.

🎯 Overall Rating

Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.

Striking Composite

74/10086/100
Michel
Marco
Marco advantage: 7.5%

Grappling Composite

68/10055/100
Michel
Marco
Michel advantage: 10.6%
🥊 Striking Composite

Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.

🤼 Grappling Composite

Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.

Technical Radar Comparison

Metrics Legend
SLpM: Strikes/Min
StrAcc: Strike Accuracy
StrDef: Strike Defense
TDAcc: TD Accuracy
TDDef: TD Defense
SubPer15: Subs/15min
Michel Pereira
VS
Marco Tulio

Detailed Statistical Comparison

Strikes Landed/Min
Advantage:Marco (+67.6%)
4.5per min7.54per min
Michel
Marco
Difference: 3.04per min
Striking Accuracy
Advantage:Marco (+15.4%)
52%60%
Michel
Marco
Difference: 8.00%
Striking Defense
Advantage:Marco (+19.2%)
52%62%
Michel
Marco
Difference: 10.00%
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Advantage:Michel (+71.1%)
4.33per min2.53per min
Michel
Marco
Difference: 1.80per min
Takedowns/15min
Advantage:Michel (+29.5%)
1.14per 15min0.88per 15min
Michel
Marco
Difference: 0.26per 15min
Takedown Accuracy
Advantage:Michel (+160.0%)
52%20%
Michel
Marco
Difference: 32.00%
Takedown Defense
Advantage:Marco (+5.3%)
76%80%
Michel
Marco
Difference: 4.00%
Submissions/15min
Advantage:Michel (+63.6%)
0.72per 15min0.44per 15min
Michel
Marco
Difference: 0.28per 15min

🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown

🏆 Michel Pereira Key Advantages

🥋Experience Edge
13 UFC fights

Vastly superior UFC experience (13 vs 2 fights) with seasoned ability to handle pressure and diverse opponents

💪Cardio Advantage
+8 cardio score

Superior cardio score (76 vs 68) and average fight duration suggest better conditioning for a 3-round war

🎯Submission Threat
+64% sub rate

Higher submission rate (0.72 vs 0.44 per 15min) and grappling composite provide finish threat from ground

⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios

🎯Striking Exchanges

Tulio's superior striking volume and accuracy could dominate in extended standing exchanges

💥Early Knockout Power

Tulio's knockout power (78.6% finish rate) could end fight before experience advantage matters

📋 Likely Gameplan

🤼Grappling Pressure

Use takedown attempts and clinch work to neutralize Tulio's striking advantages

Late Round Push

Push pace in round 3 where cardio advantage becomes decisive factor

🚀 Marco Tulio Key Advantages

💥Knockout Power
78.6% finish rate

Elite finishing ability with 10 KO/TKO wins - can end fight with single clean shot

🎯Striking Precision
+17% accuracy

Superior striking accuracy (60% vs 52%) and volume (7.54 vs 4.5 SLpM) create efficiency advantage

📐Physical Advantages
+1.5" reach

Reach advantage (74.5" vs 73") provides distance control and ability to stay safe while striking

⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios

🤼Grappling Exchanges

Extended ground time could expose Tulio to Pereira's superior submission threat

Late Round Fatigue

Cardio disadvantage becomes critical in round 3 where Pereira typically thrives

📋 Likely Gameplan

Early Aggression

Press the action early with power shots before cardio disadvantage becomes factor

📐Range Control

Use reach advantage to keep Pereira at distance and avoid grappling exchanges

🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis

Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis

45%
Michel Pereira Win Probability
Experience and cardio edge vs knockout power
55%
Marco Tulio Win Probability
Slight favorite with superior striking precision

📊Detailed Analysis Summary

🏆Experience vs Youth

This middleweight clash represents a classic experience versus rising prospect matchup. Pereira's 13 UFC fights provide tactical knowledge and proven ability to handle adversity, while Tulio's 2-0 UFC record showcases explosive potential but limited high-level experience. The statistical analysis reveals Tulio's striking superiority (60% vs 52% accuracy, 7.54 vs 4.5 SLpM) balanced against Pereira's proven cardio advantage and grappling threat.

Key Battle Areas

The fight outcome hinges on whether Tulio can capitalize on his striking advantages before Pereira's experience and cardio become decisive factors. Tulio's 78.6% finish rate and knockout power create legitimate early finish opportunities, but Pereira's superior conditioning (76 vs 68 cardio score) suggests late-round dominance if the fight extends. The grappling exchanges favor Pereira's submission threat and experience.

🔮Final Prediction

Tulio earns the slight edge due to his knockout power and striking precision, but this represents a genuinely competitive matchup where timing and game plan execution will be crucial. The 55-45 split reflects both Tulio's finishing ability and the genuine uncertainty that Pereira's experience and late-round conditioning bring to this stylistic clash. Expect an exciting fight with potential for explosive early finish or tactical decision based on who can implement their preferred fight strategy.

💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market

Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities

📊Market Odds

📈
No odds available
Market odds for this fight are not yet available

🤖Analytical Model

Michel Pereira+122
Model Probability: 45%
Marco Tulio-139
Model Probability: 55%
Model Props
Over 2.5 rounds:+40 (68.3%)
Under 2.5 rounds:-110 (44.4%)
Goes the distance:+125 (44.4%)
Doesn't go distance:-155 (60.8%)

💎Value Opportunities

⭐⭐
GOOD VALUE
Pereira (+150)

Model: 45% | Market: 40%

EDGE:
+5%
⭐⭐⭐
EXCELLENT VALUE
Over 2.5 Rounds (+135)

Model: 68.3% | Market: 42.6%

EDGE:
+25.7%
SLIGHT VALUE
Tulio by Decision (+320)

Model: 28% | Market: 23.8%

EDGE:
+4.2%

🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis

100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data

🏆Outcome Distribution - Pereira

By Decision28%

Primary path via cardio and experience

By Submission9%

Best potential threat weapon

By KO/TKO8%

Less likely due to cardio disadvantage

💥Outcome Distribution - Tulio

By KO/TKO37%

Main finishing method - one shot power

By Decision8%

Less likely due to cardio disadvantage

By Submission1%

Minimal submission threat historically

Fight Timeline Analysis

R1
Advantage: Tulio
Power shots, reach control
R2
Advantage: Even
Cardio starts to show
R3
Advantage: Pereira
Cardio edge emerges

🎯 Final Confidence Assessment

Confidence level: 6/10 - Competitive matchup with multiple variables

6/10

Confidence Level

Moderate confidence due to evenly matched styles

Supporting Factors

  • • Tulio's knockout power and precision
  • • Superior striking accuracy
  • • Reach advantage advantage
  • • High finish rate (78.6%)
  • • Early round explosiveness

⚠️Risk Factors

  • • Pereira's UFC experience edge
  • • Superior cardio conditioning
  • • Submission threat capability
  • • Grappling advantage
  • • Middleweight division volatility

🏁Executive Summary

This middleweight clash presents a compelling experience versus youth dynamic where rising prospect Marco Tulio faces seasoned veteran Michel Pereira. Tulio enters with clear striking advantages - superior accuracy (60% vs 52%), higher volume (7.54 vs 4.5 SLpM), and devastating knockout power reflected in his 78.6% finish rate. His 14-1 record and 10-fight win streak demonstrate legitimate championship potential.

However, Pereira's 13 UFC fights provide tactical maturity and proven ability to handle adversity that could prove decisive. His superior cardio score (76 vs 68) and experience in high-pressure situations create legitimate pathways to victory, particularly if the fight extends to the later rounds where his conditioning advantage becomes pronounced. The submission threat, while modest, represents additional finishing potential that Tulio's limited UFC experience may struggle to navigate.

Prediction: Tulio's knockout power and striking precision earn him the slight edge, but this represents a genuinely competitive matchup where timing and game plan execution will be crucial. The 55-45 split reflects both Tulio's finishing ability and the genuine uncertainty that Pereira's experience and late-round conditioning bring to this stylistic clash. Expect an exciting fight with potential for explosive early finish or tactical decision based on who can implement their preferred fight strategy.

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