Brian Ortega vs Aljamain Sterling
Men's Featherweight Bout • UFC Fight Night
Saturday, August 23, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Challenger Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Former Champion Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Brian Ortega
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-14 | Diego Lopes | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-24 | Yair Rodríguez | W | Submission - Arm-Triangle Choke (R3, 0:58) |
| 2022-07-16 | Yair Rodríguez | L | TKO - Shoulder Injury (R1, 4:11) |
| 2021-09-25 | Alexander Volkanovski | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2020-10-17 | Chan Sung Jung | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Aljamain Sterling
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-07 | Movsar Evloev | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-04-13 | Calvin Kattar | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-08-19 | Sean O'Malley | L | TKO - Punches (R2, 0:51) |
| 2023-05-06 | Henry Cejudo | W | Decision - Split (R5, 5:00) |
| 2022-10-22 | T.J. Dillashaw | W | TKO - Strikes from Back Mount (R2, 3:44) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (38 vs 61) and Grappling Composite (34 vs 35). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Brian Ortega Key Advantages
Superior submission attempts (1.07 vs 0.69 per 15min) and elite Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu create constant finish threat
Exceptional finish rate with ability to end fights in multiple ways - submissions, knockouts, or ground and pound
Height advantage (5'8" vs 5'7") provides leverage in clinch work and ground positions
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Sterling's superior striking volume and defense could outpoint Ortega in extended striking exchanges
Sterling's reach advantage and footwork could keep fight at distance where his striking volume shines
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use clinch work and takedown attempts to close distance and negate Sterling's reach advantage
Look for submission opportunities in scrambles and transitions where BJJ expertise provides clear advantage
🚀 Aljamain Sterling Key Advantages
Superior striking accuracy (52% vs 38%) and better defensive metrics create significant efficiency advantage
Much higher takedown volume (2.51 vs 1.07 per 15min) allows control of fight location and pace
Reach advantage (71" vs 69") provides distance control and ability to land strikes while staying safe
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Extended ground time could expose Sterling to Ortega's elite submission game and BJJ expertise
Any scrambles or transitions on the ground favor Ortega's world-class submission skills
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use reach advantage and footwork to keep fight at distance where striking accuracy provides advantage
Outpoint Ortega with higher volume and accuracy while avoiding prolonged ground exchanges
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Sterling's Path to Victory
Sterling's path to victory involves leveraging his superior striking volume and defense to outpoint Ortega over three rounds. With a significant advantage in striking accuracy (52% vs 38%) and much better defensive metrics (59% vs 50% striking defense, 2.21 vs 6.59 absorption rate), Sterling can implement a point-fighting strategy. His wrestling pressure (2.51 vs 1.07 takedowns per 15min) provides additional control options while his reach advantage allows distance management.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals Sterling's striking advantage across multiple metrics. His 68% win probability is driven by superior technical execution and safer fighting style. Sterling absorbs 198% fewer strikes per minute while maintaining higher output, creating a massive efficiency gap. However, Ortega's submission threat (1.07 vs 0.69 attempts per 15min) and 87.5% finish rate represent constant danger that prevents Sterling from being an overwhelming favorite.
🔮Key Battle Areas
The fight will be determined by Sterling's ability to maintain distance and volume against Ortega's pressure and submission attempts. Sterling's superior cardio score (42 vs 35) suggests he can maintain pace throughout all three rounds. The critical moments will occur when Ortega attempts level changes or clinch entries - Sterling's takedown defense (43% vs 56%) is actually inferior, creating opportunities for Ortega to implement his ground game.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 28% | Market: ~24%
FAIR VALUE
Model: 37% | Market: ~37%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 58.3% | Market: 55%
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Ortega
50% of his wins | Primary threat weapon
Less likely due to cardio disadvantage
Less likely due to cardio disadvantage
💥Outcome Distribution - Sterling
Primary path via volume and defense
Wrestling entries and back control
Accumulation rather than power shots
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level: 7/10 - Competitive rematch with multiple variables
Confidence Level
High confidence due to clear statistical advantages
✅Supporting Factors
- • Sterling's volume and defense edge
- • Superior striking accuracy
- • Wrestling pressure advantage
- • Better cardio score
- • Reach and range control
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Ortega's submission threat
- • Elite BJJ danger in scrambles
- • High finish rate (87.5%)
- • Unpredictable fight dynamics
- • Featherweight division volatility
🏁Executive Summary
This featherweight bout presents a fascinating tactical chess match between Sterling's proven volume striking and wrestling pressure against Ortega's elite submission threat and finishing ability. Sterling enters with clear statistical advantages across multiple metrics - superior striking accuracy (52% vs 38%), much better defensive statistics (59% vs 50% striking defense), and significantly higher takedown volume (2.51 vs 1.07 per 15 minutes).
The statistical analysis favors Sterling's defensive metrics and superior cardio score (42 vs 35), particularly in a three-round fight where his ability to maintain pace throughout all rounds becomes crucial. However, Ortega's submission threat (1.07 attempts per 15 minutes) and 87.5% finish rate create legitimate pathways to victory that prevent Sterling from being an overwhelming favorite, especially in the featherweight division where dynamics can shift rapidly.
Prediction: Sterling's proven ability to neutralize Ortega's power, combined with superior defensive metrics and championship-level conditioning, gives him the slight edge. The 68-32 split reflects both Sterling's technical advantages and the genuine uncertainty that Ortega's submission skills bring to this stylistic matchup. Expect a competitive, technical battle that likely results in a decision victory for the challenger to claim the first UFC championship.