Nasrat Haqparast vs Quillan Salkilld
Men's Lightweight Bout • UFC 321
Saturday, October 25, 2025
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Haqparast Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Salkilld Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Nasrat Haqparast
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-01 | Esteban Ribovics | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-22 | Jared Gordon | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-12-09 | Jamie Mullarkey | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 1:44) |
| 2023-09-09 | Landon Quinones | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-09-03 | John Makdessi | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Quillan Salkilld
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-07 | Yanal Ashmouz | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-02-08 | Anshul Jubli | W | TKO - Punch (R1, 0:19) |
| 2024-09-03 | Gauge Young | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-10 | Dom Mar Fan | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R2, 3:03) |
| 2023-10-28 | Brett Pastore | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (72 vs 68) and Grappling Composite (52 vs 80). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
Fight Dynamics & Stylistic Clash
This lightweight bout represents a classic striker-versus-grappler dynamic, but with modern MMA complexity layered throughout. Haqparast brings seven years of UFC experience across 14 fights, showcasing evolved defensive wrestling (85% TDD) and volume striking that has carried him through wars against elite competition.
Salkilld represents the new generation of Australian MMA talent—a high-pace chain-wrestler with submission threat who's shown finishing ability across all three methods. His 8.41 takedowns per 15 minutes and 100% takedown defense in his limited UFC sample suggest elite-level grappling fundamentals.
The 30-foot cage creates interesting dynamics: more space favors Haqparast's movement and jab-and-counter game, but also provides Salkilld longer entries and more room to chain wrestling sequences. The veteran's minute-winning style becomes increasingly valuable as takedown success rates typically decline in later rounds.
Technical Breakdown & Statistical Edge
Haqparast's striking metrics paint a picture of high-volume, pressure-based offense. His 6.4 significant strikes per minute ranks among the lightweight elite, while his 45% accuracy shows selective targeting rather than wild aggression. The concerning element is his 6.01 strikes absorbed per minute, suggesting he willingly engages in exchanges to maintain his pace.
Salkilld's grappling dominance is statistically overwhelming: 8.41 takedowns per 15 minutes nearly doubles the lightweight average, while his 38% takedown accuracy indicates quality over quantity. His 0.49 submission attempts per 15 minutes and 100% takedown defense (albeit in limited sample) suggest complete grappling competency.
The critical question becomes whether Haqparast's 85% takedown defense, built against 14 UFC opponents, can neutralize Salkilld's elite wrestling volume. If it holds near historical rates, the fight's geography shifts toward striking exchanges where Haqparast's volume and counter-timing become decisive factors.
Round-by-Round Battle Areas & Momentum Shifts
Round 1 heavily favors Salkilld's explosive entries and chain-wrestling sequences. His 3-inch reach advantage becomes most dangerous here, allowing him to hide takedown attempts behind straight punches and level changes. Haqparast's southpaw stance can be neutralized early if Salkilld controls the center and forces fence-walking scenarios.
Round 2 represents the transition period where Haqparast's veteran instincts begin showing. His jab-and-pivot game becomes more effective as Salkilld's entries become slightly more predictable. The German's ability to immediately hip-heist and create scrambles off takedown attempts becomes crucial in maintaining striking geography.
Round 3 tilts decisively toward Haqparast's pace and counter-timing. His 6.4 SLpM sustained over 12+ minute average fight duration suggests superior cardio management. Salkilld's wrestling success rate typically declines as entries become longer and more telegraphed, creating counter-windows for Haqparast's left cross and uppercut combinations.
Victory Scenarios & Path Analysis
Haqparast's Primary Path: Decision victory through sustained damage differential and stuffed takedown attempts. His volume striking creates consistent scoring opportunities while his elite takedown defense prevents Salkilld from banking control time. Late-round KO/TKO windows open if Salkilld's entries become increasingly desperate and sloppy.
Haqparast's Secondary Path: Early knockout via counter-left when Salkilld overextends on takedown attempts. His southpaw stance creates angles for uppercuts and left crosses that can catch aggressive wrestlers moving forward.
Salkilld's Primary Path: Early submission or dominant decision through sustained top control. His body-lock takedowns and single-to-double chains create opportunities for rear-naked chokes and arm-triangle submissions. Ground-and-pound can accumulate damage while preventing Haqparast's stand-up game.
Salkilld's Secondary Path: Decision victory through consistent takedowns and control time, even if submissions don't materialize. His wrestling volume can overwhelm Haqparast's defensive capabilities, especially if the German's cardio shows signs of decline in later rounds.
Final Prediction & Confidence Assessment
Haqparast's veteran experience and volume striking create a sustainable path to victory in the 30-foot cage. His 85% takedown defense, built against elite competition over seven years, provides the foundation for his jab-and-counter game to flourish in rounds 2-3. The German's ability to maintain pace while defending takedowns gives him the edge in a competitive three-round affair.
Salkilld's wrestling dominance cannot be ignored, but his limited UFC sample raises questions about sustainability against veteran competition. His early-round advantages are clear, but Haqparast's defensive wrestling and counter-striking become increasingly effective as the fight progresses.
Confidence Level: Moderate to High (70%) - The statistical edge favors Haqparast's proven defensive capabilities and volume striking, while Salkilld's wrestling threat keeps this competitive. Expect a tactical battle where Haqparast's jab-and-pivot game proves decisive in the championship rounds.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 62% | Market: N/A
GOOD VALUE
Decision-heavy optics in 3R: Goes to Decision ~56%
SLIGHT VALUE
Market line varies; model skews toward minutes.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Nasrat Haqparast
Primary path in a 3-rounder
Counter windows late
Low submission propensity
💥Outcome Distribution - Quillan Salkilld
Clean right-hand threat early
Control optics via top-time
Rear-naked setups from rides
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Quillan Salkilld
- • First 5 minutes: Maximum TD pace and ride time potential
- • Round 1: Clean right-hand equity off entries
- • Distance control: Use reach to force fence exchanges and re-shoots
- • Energy management: Smother wrists, avoid extended pocket trades
🎯Progressive Dominance - Nasrat Haqparast
- • Round 3: Pacing edge and counter windows emerge
- • Accumulation: Hands and exits reduce TD success rates
- • Judging optics: Damage and differential offset brief top-time
- • Minute-winning: Southpaw jab threads lanes in big cage
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Moderate confidence due to stylistic tension (volume vs chain-wrestling)
✅Supporting Factors
- • Haqparast's defensive résumé vs wrestlers
- • Large 30ft cage favors exits and minute-winning
- • Proven pace over 14 UFC fights
- • Southpaw jab and counters
- • Strong judging optics via strike differential
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Salkilld's 8.41 TD/15 pace
- • Submission threat from rides
- • Physical reach advantage (+3")
- • Early swing equity (R1)
- • Smaller Salkilld UFC sample size uncertainty
🏁Executive Summary
This lightweight matchup represents a fascinating clash of styles and experience levels in the UFC's most competitive division. Haqparast's seven-year UFC journey has forged him into a battle-tested volume striker with elite takedown defense (85%), while Salkilld's explosive entry into the promotion showcases the new generation of Australian MMA talent with devastating wrestling and submission skills.
The 30-foot cage creates unique dynamics that favor Haqparast's movement and jab-and-counter game, while simultaneously providing Salkilld ample space for his explosive takedown entries and chain-wrestling sequences. The veteran's minute-winning style becomes increasingly valuable as takedown success rates typically decline in later rounds, while Salkilld's early-round dominance can bank crucial control time and submission attempts.
Our comprehensive analysis, incorporating statistical modeling, stylistic breakdowns, and round-by-round momentum shifts, favors Haqparast at 62% with the primary victory path through decision. The German's volume striking (6.4 SLpM) and proven defensive wrestling create sustainable advantages, while Salkilld's grappling dominance (8.41 TD/15) provides clear early-round pathways to victory.
Market dynamics will vary based on public perception and betting patterns, but value opportunities emerge where our model probability significantly exceeds market implied probability. We recommend focusing on moneyline value, decision-leaning props, and round-specific betting opportunities that align with our round-by-round analysis.
Strategic Betting Approach: Given Haqparast's statistical edge and veteran experience, look for value in his moneyline and decision props. Salkilld's early-round advantages make Round 1 and submission props attractive for those favoring the Australian's grappling prowess. The competitive nature of this matchup suggests live betting opportunities as the fight unfolds.
Final Prediction: Haqparast edges a competitive three-rounder by out-landing and defending enough takedown attempts to maintain striking geography. His jab-and-pivot game proves decisive in rounds 2-3, while Salkilld's clearest path to victory lies in early top-time dominance and quick submission chains. Expect a tactical battle that showcases both fighters' strengths while highlighting the strategic depth of modern MMA.