Jose Delgado vs Nathaniel Wood
Men's Featherweight Bout • UFC 321
Saturday, October 25, 2025
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Jose Delgado
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-28 | Hyder Amil | W | KO/TKO - Knee and Elbows (R1, 0:26) |
| 2025-02-15 | Connor Matthews | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R1, 2:58) |
| 2024-08-13 | Ernie Juarez | W | KO/TKO - Knee and Punches (R2, 1:25) |
| 2024-07-12 | Joao Lucas Faria | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R1, 1:20) |
| 2024-04-27 | Alberto Romo | W | TKO - Punches and Elbows (R3, 0:16) |
Last 5 Fights - Nathaniel Wood
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-22 | Morgan Charriere | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-07-27 | Daniel Pineda | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-10-21 | Muhammadjon Naimov | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-22 | Andre Fili | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-09-03 | Charles Jourdain | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (82 vs 78) and Grappling Composite (85 vs 76). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Jose Delgado Key Advantages
5-inch height and reach advantage enables range striking and knees up the middle.
Sustained volume with efficient absorption (3.67 SApM) can overwhelm early.
60% TD accuracy with chain attempts creates top control opportunities.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Wood’s 72% TDD holds, extended striking exchanges could invite counters.
If the fight extends, Wood’s superior proven cardio can swing momentum.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use long weapons to set up level changes; prioritize ground-and-pound pressure.
🚀 Nathaniel Wood Key Advantages
Strong takedown defense and defensive striking (56% StrDef) sustain late-round success.
Proven 3-round durability and round-winning pace in decision-heavy wins.
Efficient pocket striking aligns with decision equity over three rounds.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Getting stuck under top control amplifies damage taken and reduces volume.
Fighting at the end of Delgado’s reach limits pocket entries where Wood excels.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Push pace to the pocket, sprawl-and-brawl, and bank minutes with clean counters.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
📐Physical Attributes and Age
Delgado holds 5-inch height and reach advantages (5'11" / 74") over Wood (5'6" / 69"), enabling long-range control in a switch stance. Wood’s 32-year-old veteran craft counters Delgado’s 27-year-old explosiveness, but the physical gap may force Wood to close distance into takedown threats and knees.
📈Resume & Efficiency
Wood’s 12 UFC bouts (9-3) and decision acumen highlight consistency across 15 minutes. Delgado’s perfect 2-0 UFC start and 100% career finish rate underscore fight-ending danger, especially in Round 1–2 surges.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Delgado’s 7.13 SLpM and 4.58 TD/15 min vs Wood’s 5.66 SLpM and 72% TDD set a pressure-versus-resistance dynamic. If takedowns land, Delgado’s top control plus long strikes compound scoring; if denied, Wood’s pocket precision and cardio can flip momentum in minutes.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Delgado: early KO/TKO or R2 finish via range-to-wrestle sequences; decision possible if control accumulates. Wood: weather early storm, stuff shots, and outpoint late; opportunistic sub attempts can appear during scrambles.
🏁Final Prediction
Metrics lean Delgado 65-35 in a 3-round fight where early dynamics matter more than deep endurance. Wood’s path clusters around decisions; Delgado’s around early finishes and control-based rounds. Projection: Delgado edges with higher early leverage.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 45% | Market: —
GOOD VALUE
Model: 55%+ finish combine | Market: —
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: Early finish cluster | Market: —
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Early danger underpriced – Delgado’s R1/R2 finishes not fully reflected.
- • Decision reliance for Wood – Three-round volatility favors faster starter.
- • Wrestling leverage – TD volume creates control time undervalued in lines.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Delgado
Primary route via range entries to GNP
Transitions after takedown sequences
Control-heavy 3-round path
💥Outcome Distribution - Wood
Pocket precision and pace
Lower one-shot equity here
Opportunistic counters in scrambles
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Wood
- • Later minutes: Bank activity in R3 as cardio edge appears.
- • Counter lanes: Intercept entries with tight combinations.
- • Scramble subs: Hunt necks if sprawls create front headlocks.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Delgado
- • Minute-winning: Jabs, long kicks, and clinch control.
- • Chain attempts: Stack TDs to create top control and damage.
- • Risk management: Exit pockets clean to deny counters.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Solid edge for Delgado with veteran resistance.
✅Supporting Factors
- • Clear reach/height leverage
- • Higher SLpM and TD output
- • 100% finish rate in wins
- • Positive momentum (7 straight)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Wood’s cardio and late-round pace
- • 72% TDD can blunt wrestling sequences
- • Sample size on Delgado's deep-rounds
- • Featherweight volatility
🏁Executive Summary
The matchup pits Delgado’s range-and-wrestle pressure against Wood’s defensive craft and decision equity. Over three rounds, the model leans 65–35 toward Delgado on early leverage, with Wood’s veteran cardio narrowing margins late.
Prediction: Delgado by KO/TKO or Decision; live hedge: Wood Decision.