Mateusz Rebecki vs Ludovit Klein
Men's Lightweight Bout • UFC 321
Saturday, October 25, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights
Last 5 Fights - Mateusz Rebecki
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-02 | Chris Duncan | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-10-26 | Myktybek Orolbai | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-05-11 | Diego Ferreira | L | TKO - Punches (R3, 4:51) |
| 2023-11-11 | Roosevelt Roberts | W | Submission - Armbar (R1, 3:08) |
| 2023-06-24 | Loik Radzhabov | W | TKO - Punch (R2, 2:36) |
Last 5 Fights - Ludovit Klein
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-31 | Mateusz Gamrot | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-09-28 | Roosevelt Roberts | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-08 | Thiago Moises | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-02 | A.J. Cunningham | W | TKO - Front Kick to the Body and Punches (R1, 4:36) |
| 2023-08-05 | Ignacio Bahamondes | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Mateusz Rebecki advantage: 4.0%Cardio Score
Mateusz Rebecki advantage: 5.1%Overall Rating
Mateusz Rebecki advantage: 4.6%📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (70 vs 82) and Grappling Composite (86 vs 68). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Ludovit Klein advantage: 17.1%Grappling Composite
Mateusz Rebecki advantage: 26.5%🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Mateusz Rebecki Key Advantages
Elite takedown volume (3.84/15) with 75% accuracy and 0.77 subs/15 — sustained control threat.
Converts from clinch with high efficiency; transitions smoothly to dominant positions and submissions.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
6.5" reach disadvantage vs a 53% accurate striker makes prolonged distance exchanges risky.
Klein’s 76% takedown defense can stall entries and force striking exchanges.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Walk forward behind feints, clinch to sap base, chain attempts until a mat return opens submissions.
Prioritize control and submission chains over volume strikes to bank rounds and finish opportunities.
🚀 Ludovit Klein Key Advantages
Controls range with precision (53% accuracy), makes entries expensive for opponents.
Proven ability to stuff entries and reset to striking, especially in 3-round pace fights.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Minimal submission offense (0.00 subs/15) limits threats off the back against control grapplers.
Being stuck in clinch cycles drains pace and reduces striking volume advantage.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Work behind the jab and kicks, keep outside foot, punish level changes with counters.
Counter uppercuts and knees on shots; circle off fence to avoid prolonged clinch control.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Championship Dynamics
This three-round lightweight bout amplifies the value of range control and early momentum. Klein’s reach and defensive metrics favor minute-winning at distance, while Rebecki’s path runs through clinch entries and mat returns.
⚔️Technical Breakdown
Klein’s striking composite (82) and 6.5" reach edge give him a consistent stand-up edge, particularly with 76% TDD. Rebecki’s grappling composite (86) and submission rate (0.77/15) remain the equalizer if he can set the terms of engagement.
🎯Key Battle Areas
Early range control and takedown denial for Klein vs. Rebecki’s clinch chains and top control. With only 3 rounds, stuffed entries carry outsized impact on scoring and clock.
🏁Final Prediction
The model leans Klein 65-35, reflecting a stylistic tilt toward a range-managed decision. Rebecki remains live via early grappling pressure and submission equity.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 20% | Market: ~9.8%
FAIR VALUE
Model: 40% | Market: ~40%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 62% | Market: 60%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Undervalues Rebecki’s sub equity — Mat control creates real finish threat.
- • Overweights range-only minutes — Single takedown can swing a 3-rounder.
- • Recency bias for strikers — Grappling win conditions priced conservatively.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Mateusz Rebecki
Primary finishing path via clinch-to-top transitions
Control time and damage accrue round-winning minutes
Less common but possible via GNP
💥Outcome Distribution - Ludovit Klein
Main finishing method via counters and range shots
Likely outcome through range control and volume
Minimal historical submission offense
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Ludovit Klein
- • First 7 minutes: Maximize range and volume before grappling adjustments.
- • Rounds 1-2: Counter level changes; reset to center quickly.
- • Distance control: Jab, kicks, and lateral exits off fence.
- • Energy management: Avoid clinch cycles.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Mateusz Rebecki
- • Round 2+: Cumulative clinch and mat returns slow striking exchanges.
- • Accumulation: Top pressure yields control and submission attempts.
- • Finishing threat: Constant once on top.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level: 8/10 - Clear striker vs grappler dynamics
Confidence Level
High confidence in Klein’s range minutes vs Rebecki’s submission equity
✅Supporting Factors
- • Klein reach and accuracy edge (6.5" & 53%)
- • 76% takedown defense vs grappling entries
- • 3-round format favors range minute-winning
- • Rebecki sub equity is concentrated; fewer decision paths
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Rebecki’s high TD accuracy (75%)
- • Submission chains once grounded
- • Small-cage/grappling-favorable dynamics (if applicable)
- • Judges valuing control time
🏁Executive Summary
Classic striker vs grappler dynamics in a 3-round frame. Klein’s distance tools and takedown defense produce consistent scoring minutes, while Rebecki’s submission equity remains live off early clinch chains. Model leans Klein via decision; Rebecki’s best path is early mat returns and submissions.