Umar Nurmagomedov vs Mario Bautista
UFC 321 • Abu Dhabi
Saturday, October 25, 2025
Championship-Caliber Control
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Momentum Contender
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Umar Nurmagomedov
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | Merab Dvalishvili | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-08-03 | Cory Sandhagen | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-02 | Bekzat Almakhan | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-01-14 | Raoni Barcelos | W | KO/TKO - Punch to Head At Distance (R1, 4:40) |
| 2022-06-25 | Nate Maness | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Mario Bautista
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-07 | Patchy Mix | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-10-05 | Jose Aldo | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-01-13 | Ricky Simon | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-08-19 | Da'Mon Blackshear | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-03-11 | Guido Cannetti | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 3:18) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (78 vs 76) and Grappling Composite (86 vs 68). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Umar Nurmagomedov Key Advantages
Superior TD volume (3.26 vs 1.67 per 15), elite TD defense (79%) and positional control create sustained scoring opportunities and submission setups.
Absorbs far fewer strikes (2.15 vs 4.45 SApM) with superior striking defense (61% vs 56%)—mitigates high-volume pressure.
Efficient 57% striking accuracy pairs with takedown threats to open counters and control exchanges.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If early takedowns are stuffed, Bautista's reach and volume can create a round-by-round striking deficit.
Merab-like pace could tax output if Umar is forced to strike for prolonged periods without grappling leverage.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Mix singles/doubles with clinch trips; advance position and mix ground strikes to set up submissions or ride control.
Use level-change threats to open clean counters on the feet; prioritize accuracy over volume.
🚀 Mario Bautista Key Advantages
6.13 SLpM with 3" reach advantage drives distance control and scoring in standing exchanges.
Solid first-layer takedown defense and scramble ability can extend standing phases to harness volume.
Strategic body work can tax Umar over time if takedowns are limited and distance is controlled.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Ground control phases limit volume; positional advances increase submission risk.
Clinch and fence control from Umar reduces space, negating reach and limiting combinations.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Keep the fight at range; build volume behind the jab, target body and legs to slow entries.
Prioritize underhooks and frames to exit clinch; scramble immediately to avoid control accumulation.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Style Matchup Dynamics
This bantamweight clash pits Umar's elite grappling and defensive efficiency against Bautista's high-volume striking and reach. The large 30-foot Octagon provides space for entries and exits, but Umar's takedown chains and control time historically overcome volume when opponents cannot keep the fight at distance for long stretches.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Grappling composite edge (86 vs 68) and defensive metrics (61% StrDef, 2.15 SApM) tilt the fight toward Umar in extended sequences. Bautista's 6.13 SLpM and 3" reach require consistent distance management to offset takedown threats.
⚡Key Battle Areas
Early entries vs first-layer TDD; mid-fight cage wrestling vs distance resets; late-round control vs volume bursts. Umar's efficiency tends to trump output when grappling momentum is established.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Umar by Decision is the most likely path (control and accuracy over three rounds), with submission live if extended ground phases occur. Bautista's route is distance striking volume over three rounds or a well-timed counter leading to a stoppage.
🏁Final Prediction
With a 75-25 model split, Umar's grappling and defensive profile provides a clear edge. Expect distance battles early but progressive control as entries accumulate. Prediction: Umar by Decision.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 52% | Market: 52% (fair)
GOOD VALUE
Model: 15% | Market: 16.7%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: ~60% | Market: 60%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Volume vs Efficiency — Market may overweight SLpM without accounting for SApM and accuracy differential.
- • Grappling Impact — Control time often undervalued in 3-round scoring dynamics.
- • Reach Adjustment — 3" reach advantage mitigated by takedown threat and fence wrestling.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Umar Nurmagomedov
Primary path given control profile
Live if prolonged ground phases
Counter opportunities
💥Outcome Distribution - Mario Bautista
Volume at range
Counter power windows
Opportunistic scrambles
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Mario Bautista
- • First 5 minutes: Maximum distance control leverage
- • Jab and body work: Set pace and discourage entries
- • Urgent exits: Avoid extended clinch/cage time
🎯Progressive Dominance - Umar Nurmagomedov
- • Round 2+: Takedown chains and top control add up
- • Fence wrestling: Wear down first-layer TDD, reduce space
- • Finish equity: Live if extended ground time accumulates
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
High conviction: defensive and grappling metrics dominate
✅Supporting Factors
- • Elite TD defense and efficiency vs high volume
- • Clear grappling composite edge (86 vs 68)
- • Lower SApM with higher accuracy
- • Proven control vs top-tier competition
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Early distance striking momentum for Mario
- • Short bursts of volume winning optics
- • Potential for low control time in large cage
🏁Executive Summary
Umar's efficiency and grappling posture a strong decision path in a 3-round framework. Mario's reach and volume create early risk windows, but the takedown threat bends the fight toward control phases and accuracy rather than raw output.
Final Verdict: Umar Nurmagomedov by Decision. Market aligns near fair price; derivative angles favor Umar decision and fight going the distance.