Virna Jandiroba vs Mackenzie Dern
Women's Strawweight Bout • UFC Abu Dhabi
Saturday, October 25, 2025
Virna Jandiroba
22-3-0
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Mackenzie Dern
15-5-0
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Virna Jandiroba
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-12 | Yan Xiaonan | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-07-20 | Amanda Lemos | W | Submission - Armbar (R2, 4:48) |
| 2024-03-30 | Loopy Godinez | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-05-06 | Marina Rodriguez | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-05-14 | Angela Hill | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Mackenzie Dern
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | Amanda Ribas | W | Submission - Armbar (R3, 4:56) |
| 2024-08-03 | Loopy Godinez | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-17 | Amanda Lemos | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-11-11 | Jessica Andrade | L | KO/TKO - Punch (R2, 3:15) |
| 2023-05-20 | Angela Hill | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Virna Jandiroba advantage: 8.3%Cardio Score
Virna Jandiroba advantage: 9.3%Overall Rating
Virna Jandiroba advantage: 8.8%📊 Technical Score
Average of Striking Composite and Grappling Composite derived from UFC rate metrics and defensive efficiency.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, sustained output (SLpM/TD rate), and finish rate adjustments.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical and Cardio scores for a holistic capability index.
Striking Composite
Mackenzie Dern advantage: 7.7%Grappling Composite
Virna Jandiroba advantage: 23.0%🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of SLpM, StrAcc, StrDef, and StrAbs/Min to reflect offensive and defensive striking.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from TD/15, TDAcc, TDDef, and Sub/15 to measure positional control and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven 5-round prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Range & Cage Dynamics
Large cage favors footwork and range, but Jandiroba’s clinch entries and mat control can bank minutes when exchanges even out.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Dern holds higher SLpM, but Jandiroba’s takedown volume and defense tilt location control. Takedown reliability edge supports her game-over-time.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Early submission traps from Dern vs sustained clinch-to-mat pressure from Jandiroba; defensive responsibility exiting exchanges is pivotal.
🏁Final Prediction
Minutes favor Jandiroba through control and defense; moments favor Dern via submission flurries. Projection: Jandiroba edges a decision or finds a submission when entries stack.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 30% | Market: N/A
FAIR VALUE
Model: 30% | Market: N/A
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 45% | Market: N/A
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Control vs moments – model weights positional control more than early submission surges.
- • Takedown reliability – Jandiroba’s TD/15 and TDDef advantages aren’t fully priced at times.
- • Durability and cardio – late-round attrition favors control-based scorer in a big cage.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis (5-Round Fight)
100 hypothetical 5-round fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Virna Jandiroba
Primary path via control and defense
Ground-and-pound sequences
Transitions from sustained top control
💥Outcome Distribution - Mackenzie Dern
Accumulated damage in standup flurries
Volume advantage if kept upright
Opportunistic subs in scrambles
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
📈Timeline Projections
- • 0-5 minutes: Jandiroba clinch entries and takedown attempts (20% finish probability)
- • 5-10 minutes: Dern submission flurries and defensive scrambles (25% finish probability)
- • 10-15 minutes: Control vs volume battle - Jandiroba's defense tested (20% finish probability)
- • 15-25 minutes: Championship rounds favor Jandiroba's sustained control (35% total)
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment (5-Round Fight)
Conviction level: 8/10 – Control edge with live submission volatility
Confidence Level
Sustained control and defense favor Jandiroba; early subs are Dern’s path.
✅Supporting Factors
- • TD/15 and TDDef edges support fight location control
- • Lower strikes absorbed per minute improves minute-winning
- • Recent 5-fight streak vs ranked competition
- • Balanced finish toolkit (DEC/SUB)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Dern’s submission surge early in fights
- • Extended standup minutes can boost Dern’s volume optics
- • Five-round variance in large cage
🏁Executive Summary
Control-over-time vs moment-based finishing defines this title bout. The model leans 65–35 toward Jandiroba on sustained control, with decision and submission as primary routes.
Prediction: Jandiroba by Decision or Submission; hedge: Dern Submission.