Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady vs Matheus Camilo
Men's Lightweight Bout • UFC Abu Dhabi
Saturday, October 25, 2025
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Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-02 | Loik Radzhabov | L | KO/TKO - Punches (R3, 0:49) |
| 2023-08-15 | George Hardwick | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-02-17 | Mike Murphy | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2022-09-23 | Chris Pecero | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R1, 2:44) |
| 2022-02-27 | Nick Compton | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Matheus Camilo
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-17 | Gabe Green | L | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R2, 3:43) |
| 2024-12-14 | Dorobshokh Nabotov | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-10-11 | Jhonasky Sojo | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-09-17 | Dorian Ramos | W | Submission - Triangle Armbar (R3, 2:43) |
| 2023-05-06 | Alberto Romo | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R1, 4:43) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Matheus Camilo advantage: 35.1%Cardio Score
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady advantage: 11.5%Overall Rating
Matheus Camilo advantage: 7.4%📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (51 vs 51) and Grappling Composite (24 vs 48). Shows skill balance across the main phases.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Reflects sustained output and endurance.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill and conditioning.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Matheus Camilo advantage: 100.0%🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of SLpM, StrAcc, StrDef, and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Captures offensive efficiency and defensive responsibility.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Based on TD/15, TDAcc, TDDef, and Sub/15. Higher values indicate superior wrestling and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven 3-round prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Range & Cage Dynamics
In the 30-foot cage, Al-Selwady can maximize movement and volume, but Camilo's clinch entries and chain wrestling limit prolonged space.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Striking is essentially even by composite, but Camilo's grappling metrics (TDAcc 66% vs TDDef 20%) forecast top control and submission lanes.
🧩Key Battle Areas
First-layer TDD from Al-Selwady, re-shots from Camilo, and defensive responsibility in exits will determine whether minutes are won on feet or mat.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 30% | Market: N/A
FAIR VALUE
Model: 30% | Market: N/A
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 15% | Market: N/A
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis (3-Round Fight)
100 hypothetical fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Matheus Camilo
Top control and damage accumulation
Ground-and-pound stoppage lanes
Back-takes and chokes after takedowns
💥Outcome Distribution - Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady
Counter entries and flurries on breaks
Out-volume if TDD holds long enough
Limited recorded submission threat
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Round Fight)
⚡Window of Opportunity - Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady
- • Counter entries as Camilo changes levels
- • Target legs early to slow shots
- • Circle off fence to deny clinch control
🎯Progressive Dominance - Matheus Camilo
- • Chain wrestle into rides and mat returns
- • Threaten back takes to open strikes
- • Keep positional control to bank minutes
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment (3-Round Fight)
Conviction level: 8/10 — Grappling differential drives a clear edge
Confidence Level
Strong stylistic advantage for Camilo on the mat
✅Supporting Factors
- • TDAcc 66% vs TDDef 20% mismatch
- • Sub attempts 1.7/15 vs 0.0/15
- • Efficient striking defense (SApM 1.38)
- • Youth and cardio profile over 3 rounds
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Al-Selwady's KO power and volume surges
- • Camilo's past submission losses in scrambles
- • Big cage can delay clinch entries
- • Lightweight volatility in exchanges
🏁Executive Summary
Camilo holds decisive grappling advantages that are well-aligned to exploit Al-Selwady's takedown defense gap. While striking exchanges are competitive, the control, submission, and ride time threat push the bout toward Camilo in most simulations.
Prediction: Camilo by Decision or Submission; Al-Selwady KO as live hedge.