Chris Barnett vs Hamdy Abdelwahab
Men's Heavyweight Bout • UFC Abu Dhabi
Saturday, October 25, 2025
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Chris Barnett
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-26 | Kennedy Nzechukwu | L | TKO - Knee to Body and Punches (R1, 4:27) |
| 2022-09-10 | Jake Collier | W | TKO - Punches (R2, 2:24) |
| 2022-04-16 | Martin Buday | L | Technical Decision - Unanimous (R3, 1:38) |
| 2021-11-06 | Gian Villante | W | TKO - Spinning Wheel Kick and Punches (R2, 2:23) |
| 2021-05-22 | Ben Rothwell | L | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R2, 2:07) |
Last 5 Fights - Hamdy Abdelwahab
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-21 | Mohammed Usman | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-02-01 | Jamal Pogues | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-07-30 | Don'Tale Mayes | NC | No Contest - Overturned (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-06-03 | Matthew Strickland | W | KO - Punch (R1, 0:27) |
| 2022-03-19 | Tyler Lee | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 0:26) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Hamdy Abdelwahab advantage: 55.6%Cardio Score
Hamdy Abdelwahab advantage: 41.7%Overall Rating
Hamdy Abdelwahab advantage: 47.6%📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite and Grappling Composite. Reflects combined efficiency in stand-up and ground phases.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures endurance and pace maintenance.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of capabilities combining skills and conditioning.
Striking Composite
Hamdy Abdelwahab advantage: 8.3%Grappling Composite
Hamdy Abdelwahab advantage: 150.0%Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven 3-round prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Range & Cage Dynamics
Large 30-foot Octagon favors movement and range control. Abdelwahab's height and clinch entries can steer the fight, while Barnett's 3-inch reach helps at distance.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Barnett owns higher SLpM and finishing power but suffers from low striking defense and takedown defense. Abdelwahab brings efficient striking, strong wrestling (1.33 TD/15 at 67% Acc), and elite TD defense (100%).
🧩Key Battle Areas
Early Barnett power vs. Abdelwahab's clinch/wrestle pressure. If Barnett cannot secure damage early, Abdelwahab's cardio and control trend the fight to the cards.
🏁Final Prediction
Minutes favor Abdelwahab; moments favor Barnett. Over 3 rounds, Abdelwahab's defensive wrestling and pace tilt this contest unless Barnett lands early. Projection: Abdelwahab decision most often; Barnett early KO is live.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 50% | Market: N/A
FAIR VALUE
Model: 25% | Market: N/A
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 66.7% | Market: N/A
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis (3-Round Fight)
100 hypothetical 3-round fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Chris Barnett
Uncommon path; must bank minutes
Primary lane via early power
Minimal submission threat
💥Outcome Distribution - Hamdy Abdelwahab
Occasional finishing pressure
Primary path via control and cardio
Rare submission attempts
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Round Fight)
⚡Window of Opportunity - Chris Barnett
- • First 5 minutes: Peak KO equity before reads settle.
- • Long-range flurries: Use reach to snipe entries.
- • Avoid clinch: Keep off fence to deny TDs.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Hamdy Abdelwahab
- • Clinch/wrestle: Chain TDs and cage control.
- • Minute winning: Efficient jabs, fence control.
- • Defense first: Maintain high guard and exits.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Conviction level: 8/10 — Wrestler control vs heavyweight volatility
Confidence Level
Abdelwahab's cardio/wrestling edge is clear; early KO danger keeps risk.
✅Supporting Factors
- • Abdelwahab 100% TD Defense (UFC sample)
- • Higher StrDef (52%) and lower SApM (4.49)
- • Reliable pacing to decisions; cardio advantage
- • Wrestling control neutralizes Barnett's bursts
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Heavyweight variance; Barnett KO power (25% route)
- • Small UFC sample for Abdelwahab
- • Barnett 3" reach edge at distance
- • Judges and close-round optics
🏁Executive Summary
Abdelwahab's defensive wrestling, efficient striking, and superior cardio provide a statistical edge across three rounds. Barnett's path is early knockout leveraging his higher SLpM and reach; otherwise, control minutes accumulate for the wrestler.
Prediction: Abdelwahab by Decision most often; Barnett KO/TKO live early.