Azat Maksum vs Mitch Raposo
UFC Flyweight Division • UFC 321
Saturday, October 25, 2025
Striker Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Wrestler Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Azat Maksum
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-21 | Tagir Ulanbekov | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-03 | Charles Johnson | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-15 | Tyson Nam | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-01-21 | Fabricio Nunes | W | Submission - Brabo Choke (R1, 4:55) |
| 2022-06-10 | Alan Gabriel | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Mitch Raposo
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-12 | Sumudaerji | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-01 | André Lima | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-01-27 | Justin Valentin | W | KO/TKO (R4, 3:03) |
| 2023-05-27 | Tyler Smythe | W | KO/TKO (R1, 0:49) |
| 2022-11-17 | Flavio Carvalho | W | KO/TKO - Right Hand (R2, 0:19) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (65 vs 60) and Grappling Composite (65 vs 67). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏹 Azat Maksum Key Advantages
Elite 70-inch reach advantage allows distance control and outside striking dominance
Stout 86% takedown defense neutralizes Raposo's primary weapon and forces striking exchanges
3.24 vs 1.62 SLpM - doubles Raposo's striking output when fight stays standing
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Poor 29% striking accuracy allows Raposo to counter-strike and find openings for takedowns
Backing straight to fence when pressured gives Raposo opportunities for clinch work and trips
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use reach and outside calf kicks to maintain distance and prevent Raposo from closing range
Rely on 86% TDD and athletic scrambles to keep fight standing where striking advantage applies
🤼 Mitch Raposo Key Advantages
3.54 vs 2.33 TD per 15min - superior wrestling pressure and chain attempts
38% vs 28% takedown accuracy - higher efficiency when opportunities present themselves
34% vs 29% striking accuracy - cleaner, more precise striking when exchanges occur
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
5.5" reach deficit forces risky entries into Maksum's striking range to initiate takedowns
Poor 50% TDD vulnerable to Maksum's counter-wrestling and submission threats
📋 Likely Gameplan
Chain multiple takedown attempts together to overcome 86% TDD and find openings
Force clinch work against the fence to neutralize reach advantage and work for trips
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🎯Key Battle Dynamics
This flyweight clash presents a classic striker vs wrestler dynamic complicated by significant reach and takedown defense differentials. Maksum's 70-inch reach creates a substantial 5.5-inch advantage that fundamentally alters the fight's geometry, while his elite 86% takedown defense forms a formidable wall against Raposo's primary weapon. The statistical analysis reveals contrasting approaches: Maksum's volume-based striking game (3.24 SLpM) against Raposo's precision-focused attack (34% vs 29% accuracy).
⚡Technical Breakdown
The cage dimensions favor Maksum's length-based game plan, with the 30-foot Octagon providing ample space for distance management. Raposo's 52% higher takedown volume (3.54 vs 2.33 per 15 minutes) and superior accuracy (38% vs 28%) create legitimate pathways to victory, but must overcome Maksum's proven defensive metrics. The conditioning factor becomes critical as Maksum's higher striking output typically sustains throughout three rounds without obvious fade patterns.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Maksum's 70% win probability reflects his ability to control the fight's primary battlefield - the striking exchanges. His path involves utilizing calf kicks and distance strikes to blunt Raposo's entries while relying on his proven TDD to keep the fight standing. Raposo's 30% chance hinges on successfully implementing chain wrestling, forcing clinch exchanges against the fence, and potentially finding submission opportunities if the fight transitions to the ground. The 42% decision rate for Maksum suggests he often controls without finishing, while Raposo's paths are more binary - either dominate through top control or struggle with the range disadvantage.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
FAIR VALUE
Model: 70% | Market: 70.1%
NO VALUE
Model: 64.5% | Market: 64.5%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 42% | Market: ~42%
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏹Outcome Distribution - Maksum
Distance control leads to volume advantage
Accumulation striking or knee on entry
Front headlock guillotine on tired shots
🤼Outcome Distribution - Raposo
Two rounds of top control earn decision
Back-take off scramble into RNC
Counter right over lazy kick
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Rounds)
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level: 7/10 - Competitive rematch with multiple variables
Confidence Level
Strong confidence in reach/TDD advantages
✅Supporting Factors
- • 5.5" reach advantage in 30ft cage
- • Elite 86% takedown defense
- • Double striking output volume
- • Proven pace sustainability
- • Cage size favors length
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Poor 29% striking accuracy
- • Raposo's chain wrestling
- • Backing to fence pattern
- • Raposo's superior TDA
- • Flyweight division volatility
🏁Executive Summary
This flyweight matchup represents a strategic chess match where Maksum's physical advantages (70" reach, 86% TDD) create multiple pathways to victory against Raposo's wrestling-based approach. The simulation strongly favors Maksum's ability to control distance and maintain his defensive wall, particularly in the larger 30-foot Octagon. While Raposo possesses legitimate wrestling credentials and improved takedown accuracy, overcoming the length differential while maintaining offensive pressure presents a complex tactical challenge. The 70-30 probability split reflects both the magnitude of Maksum's advantages and the binary nature of Raposo's pathways to victory.