Alexander Volkov vs Jailton Almeida
Men's Heavyweight Bout • UFC 321
Saturday, October 25, 2025
Distance Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Grappler Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Alexander Volkov
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-07 | Ciryl Gane | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-22 | Sergei Pavlovich | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-09-10 | Tai Tuivasa | W | Submission - Ezekiel Choke (R2, 4:37) |
| 2023-03-11 | Alexander Romanov | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 2:16) |
| 2022-06-04 | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 2:12) |
Last 5 Fights - Jailton Almeida
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | Serghei Spivac | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 4:53) |
| 2024-06-01 | Alexander Romanov | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 2:27) |
| 2024-03-09 | Curtis Blaydes | L | KO - Punch (R2, 0:36) |
| 2023-11-04 | Derrick Lewis | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-05-13 | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 3:43) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (59 vs 57) and Grappling Composite (49 vs 80). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
📏 Alexander Volkov Key Advantages
Massive physical advantages with 4" height and 1" reach edge - can control distance and force Almeida to fight at range
Superior striking output (4.97 vs 2.62 SLpM) can accumulate damage and prevent Almeida's takedown entries
Long kicking game makes level changes hazardous - can punish Almeida's wrestling entries with knees and teeps
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Once trapped against the fence, Volkov's defensive wrestling weaknesses become exposed to Almeida's elite grappling
If Almeida secures early takedown (77% of his wins in R1), Volkov's limited bottom game becomes a major liability
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use jabs, teeps, and body kicks to maintain distance; punish level changes with knees up the middle
Avoid backing straight up to fence; circle out laterally after sprawling to reset distance advantage
🤼 Jailton Almeida Key Advantages
Elite takedown volume (6.58 vs 0.61 per 15min) and submission threat (2.41 vs 0.24 attempts) - complete grappling advantage
Explosive first round threat with 17 of 22 wins in Round 1 - can end fight quickly before cardio becomes factor
Elite damage avoidance (0.89 vs 2.99 strikes absorbed/min) - gets to grappling before accumulating significant damage
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Extended periods at kicking range allow Volkov to accumulate damage and negate takedown opportunities
If fight extends beyond Round 2, cardio advantage shifts heavily toward Volkov's favor (12:57 vs 6:50 avg duration)
📋 Likely Gameplan
Press forward aggressively; force clinch exchanges and body-lock opportunities; avoid extended striking exchanges
Target submission finish in Rounds 1-2 before Volkov's size and cardio advantages become decisive factors
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🥊Style Clash Analysis
This heavyweight bout represents the classic striker vs. grappler dynamic that has defined many of the division's most exciting encounters. Volkov brings a rare combination of size and technique for the heavyweight division, standing 6'7" with an 80" reach that allows him to control distance like few heavyweights can. His kickboxing background and improved wrestling defense (72% TDD) have evolved significantly since his early UFC appearances, making him a more complete mixed martial artist.
📊Statistical Breakdown
The numbers reveal a fascinating contrast in fighting approaches. Almeida's grappling dominance is staggering: his 6.58 takedowns per 15 minutes represents a 978% advantage over Volkov's 0.61, while his 2.41 submission attempts per 15 minutes dwarfs Volkov's 0.24. However, Volkov's striking metrics paint an equally compelling picture - his 4.97 significant strikes per minute (89.7% more than Almeida's 2.62) combined with superior defensive positioning (2.99 vs 0.89 strikes absorbed per minute) suggests he can maintain distance effectively.
⏰Timeline Considerations
The fight timeline heavily favors different fighters at different stages. Almeida's 77% first-round finish rate (17 of 22 wins) creates immediate urgency, while Volkov's superior cardio (12:57 vs 6:50 average fight duration) and three-round format suggest advantages in later rounds. The Brazilian's explosive wrestling style requires early success, as Volkov's size and defensive improvements have been specifically tailored to neutralize aggressive grapplers like Curtis Blaydes and Alexander Romanov.
🎯Key Battle Areas
The cage geography becomes critical in this matchup. Volkov's lateral movement and fence awareness have improved dramatically, but Almeida's pressure wrestling excels at forcing opponents into compromising positions. The Russian's teep kicks and body work can disrupt takedown timing, while his recent submission victory over Tuivasa demonstrates improved grappling awareness. Conversely, Almeida's ability to chain wrestling attempts and his devastating submission finishing (13 career submission wins) create constant danger once the fight hits the ground.
🏁Final Prediction
While Volkov's physical advantages and improved defensive wrestling create legitimate paths to victory, Almeida's explosive grappling and first-round finishing ability provide more reliable routes to success. The Brazilian's 86.4% finish rate and ability to end fights quickly minimizes the impact of Volkov's size and cardio advantages. Expect Almeida to press forward aggressively from the opening bell, looking to secure early takedowns and submission opportunities. The 62-38 split reflects both Almeida's finishing ability and the inherent unpredictability that Volkov's reach and improved defensive skills bring to the heavyweight division.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 40% | Market: ~39.5%
FAIR VALUE
Model: 25% | Market: ~25%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 60.8% | Market: 58.0%
🎯Key Market Insights
- • Market alignment is strong - Odds closely reflect statistical reality with minimal discrepancies
- • Submission prop offers best value - Almeida's 40% finish rate via submission slightly underpriced
- • Early finish bias correct - 77% of Almeida's wins in R1 supports Under 1.5 rounds pricing
- • Distance fight overvalued - Only 26% chance fight reaches decision based on historical data
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
📏Outcome Distribution - Volkov
63.2% of his wins | Volume accumulation
26.3% of his wins | Distance control
10.5% of his wins | Rare but possible
🤼Outcome Distribution - Almeida
59.1% of his wins | Primary weapon
4.5% of his wins | Control heavy
36.4% of his wins | Ground strikes
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Almeida
- • First 5 minutes: Maximum grappling success rate and energy
- • Early pressure: 77% of wins in Round 1 - must establish dominance quickly
- • Submission window: Before Volkov's defensive adjustments take effect
- • Wrestling chains: Multiple takedown attempts before fatigue sets in
📏Progressive Control - Volkov
- • Survive Round 1: Weather the early storm and force extended exchanges
- • Round 2+: Size and reach advantages become more pronounced
- • Cardio edge: Superior conditioning allows sustained output
- • Distance control: Improved defensive wrestling neutralizes takedowns
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level: 7/10 - Competitive rematch with multiple variables
Confidence Level
Strong statistical foundation with clear stylistic advantages
✅Supporting Factors
- • Almeida's elite grappling metrics
- • 77% first-round finish rate
- • Clear submission threat advantage
- • Three-round format favors early finish
- • Superior damage avoidance statistics
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Volkov's massive size advantage
- • Improved takedown defense (72%)
- • Superior striking volume and range
- • Heavyweight division volatility
- • Almeida's cardio limitations past R2
🏁Executive Summary
This heavyweight clash represents one of the most intriguing stylistic matchups on the card, featuring Almeida's explosive grappling against Volkov's evolved defensive wrestling and massive physical advantages. The Brazilian's 977% takedown volume advantage and 40% submission finish rate create immediate danger, while his 77% first-round finish rate suggests the fight's outcome will likely be determined early.
Volkov's improvements are undeniable - his 72% takedown defense represents significant evolution from early UFC appearances, and his ability to finish Tuivasa via submission demonstrates improved grappling awareness. However, Almeida's relentless pressure and chain wrestling create sustained threats that few heavyweights can neutralize effectively.
Prediction: Almeida's explosive early pressure and elite submission skills provide the most reliable path to victory in this heavyweight encounter. While Volkov's physical advantages create legitimate winning scenarios, particularly if the fight extends beyond the first round, Almeida's ability to end fights quickly and efficiently through his grappling dominance makes him the rightful favorite. The 62-38 probability split reflects the competitive nature of this matchup while acknowledging Almeida's superior finishing ability and early-round explosiveness.