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UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland — Newark

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland Poster - UFC Fight Analytics
Saturday, May 9, 2026
Newark, New Jersey, United States
Prudential Center
⚡ Upcoming Event9 Fights🏆 1 Title Fight
Main Card: Paramount+
Prelims: Paramount+
Start Time: 5:00 PM ET
Start Time by Timezone
Times are estimated; Early Prelims ~2h, Prelims ~2h, Main Card ~2h. Subject to change.
PT
US West Coast
Early
2:00 PM
Prelims
3:00 PM
Main
5:00 PM
ET
Eastern US/Canada
Early
5:00 PM
Prelims
6:00 PM
Main
8:00 PM
BST
United Kingdom / Ireland
Early
10:00 PM
Prelims
11:00 PM
Main
1:00 AM (Sun)
CET
Central Europe
Early
11:00 PM
Prelims
12:00 AM (Sun)
Main
2:00 AM (Sun)
AEST
Australia (East)
Early
9:00 AM (Sun)
Prelims
10:00 AM (Sun)
Main
12:00 PM (Sun)
🏆

UFC 328: Full Card Analytics & Predictions

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland — Prudential Center, Newark — May 9, 2026

The boogeyman gets his biggest test. Undefeated Khamzat Chimaev (15-0, 9-0 UFC) puts the middleweight title on the line against the man nobody wants to fight, Sean Strickland (30-7, 17-7 UFC), at Prudential Center in Newark. Chimaev's 44% submission rate and 22% KO/TKO rate in the UFC make him a nightmare matchup — he has literally never lost a professional fight. Strickland counters with relentless volume (65% of his UFC wins by decision), legitimate knockout power (29% by KO/TKO), and the championship experience that comes from dethroning Adesanya. This is the ultimate grappler-vs-striker title fight. Paramount+ at 5:00 PM ET.

AI-powered analytics cover the full 9-fight card with predictions, odds comparisons, and method-of-victory projections. The undercard is stacked: Brady vs. Buckley at welterweight is a top-10 clash, Volkov vs. Cortes-Acosta brings heavyweight power, and Błachowicz vs. Guskov at light heavyweight features a former champion.

🥊

What is UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland?

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland is a PPV event on May 9, 2026, at Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey — and it's the most anticipated middleweight title fight in years. Undefeated Khamzat Chimaev (15-0, 9-0 UFC) is the scariest 185-pounder on the planet: four submission wins and two KO/TKOs in the UFC, zero defeats anywhere. Sean Strickland (30-7, 17-7 UFC) brings relentless volume striking and the kind of mental toughness forged across 24 UFC appearances, including winning and losing the title. The 9-fight card airs on Paramount+ starting at 5:00 PM ET.

🤖

What are the predictions for Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland?

Our model leans Chimaev — and the reasoning is straightforward. His undefeated record, dominant grappling (44% submission rate in the UFC), and his recent title win over Du Plessis all point to a fighter who hasn't been figured out yet. Strickland's high-output striking (65% decision rate) and championship composure make him the most dangerous opponent Chimaev has faced, but Strickland's limited submission offense (6% finish rate) narrows his paths to victory once this fight hits the mat. Brady vs. Buckley at welterweight projects as a compelling grappler-vs-striker mirror of the main event, and Volkov vs. Cortes-Acosta at heavyweight offers potential underdog value. Every fight includes AI predictions, odds comparisons, and method-of-victory projections.

📺

How to watch UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland and what time does it start?

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland goes live Saturday, May 9, 2026. Main card at 5:00 PM ET (2:00 PM PT / 10:00 PM BST) on Paramount+. Prelims start roughly two hours earlier, also on Paramount+. Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey hosts what could be the most explosive title fight of 2026.

Main Event — MW Title

Chimaev vs. Strickland

The definitive grappler-vs-striker title fight at 185 lbs. Chimaev's smothering grappling (44% SUB rate) against Strickland's relentless volume striking (65% DEC rate) — whoever dictates where this fight takes place wins.

Welterweight

Brady vs. Buckley

Elite grappler Sean Brady meets knockout artist Joaquin Buckley in a welterweight clash with title-contender implications. Style matchup mirrors the main event.

Heavyweight

Volkov vs. Cortes-Acosta

Veteran heavyweight Alexander Volkov faces rising power puncher Waldo Cortes-Acosta. Our model sees potential value on the underdog in this striking-heavy matchup.

📊Analysis Reliability Framework

Our analytical model considers UFC experience as one of several factors for optimal predictions. While we can analyze any fight, fighters with 5+ UFC bouts provide more comprehensive data for our statistical modeling. This doesn't diminish the quality of our analysis for newer fighters - it's simply one criterion we factor into our confidence assessments.

🔴

High Risk (**)

<3 UFC Bouts

Limited UFC data available. Analysis relies more heavily on external sources and pre-UFC performance patterns.

🟡

Moderate Risk (*)

3-4 UFC Bouts

Meaningful UFC sample size with good analytical foundation. Reliable insights with solid confidence levels.

🟢

Optimal Data

5+ UFC Bouts

Comprehensive statistical foundation enabling highest confidence analysis and predictive accuracy.

Note: All fights receive thorough analysis regardless of UFC experience levels. This framework simply helps calibrate confidence in our predictions.

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland Fights, Analytics & Predictions

💡

We display the best available odds for each fighter to maximize value. Preference is given to BetOnline when available; otherwise, we select the highest‑value line and show the sportsbook and implied probability (I.P %).

🏆 Main Event
🟢
Khamzat Chimaev
🏆 undefined
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
Sean Strickland
🟢
Alexander Volkov
Heavyweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
Waldo Cortes-Acosta
🟢
Sean Brady
Welterweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
Joaquin Buckley
🟢
King Green

King Green

34-17-1

Lightweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
Jeremy Stephens
🟢
Jan Błachowicz
Light Heavyweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
Bogdan Guskov
🟡
Ateba Gautier
Middleweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
Ozzy Diaz

Ozzy Diaz

10-3-0

🟡
Roman Kopylov
Middleweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
Marco Tulio
🟡
Clayton Carpenter
Flyweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
Jose Ochoa
🟡
Baisangur Susurkaev
Middleweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
Djorden Santos

Model Probabilities vs Market Odds Summary

FightFighter AModel Prob AMarket Odds AImplied Prob AFighter BModel Prob BMarket Odds BImplied Prob BValue
Chimaev vs Strickland🟢Khamzat Chimaev50.0%N/A—Sean Strickland50.0%N/A—
Strickland +50.0%
Volkov vs Cortes-Acosta🟢Alexander Volkov50.0%N/A—Waldo Cortes-Acosta50.0%N/A—
Cortes-Acosta +50.0%
Brady vs Buckley🟢Sean Brady50.0%N/A—Joaquin Buckley50.0%N/A—
Buckley +50.0%
Green vs Stephens🟢King Green50.0%N/A—Jeremy Stephens50.0%N/A—
Stephens +50.0%
Błachowicz vs Guskov🟢Jan Błachowicz50.0%N/A—Bogdan Guskov50.0%N/A—
Guskov +50.0%
Gautier vs Diaz🟡Ateba Gautier50.0%N/A—Ozzy Diaz50.0%N/A—
Diaz +50.0%
Kopylov vs Tulio🟡Roman Kopylov50.0%N/A—Marco Tulio50.0%N/A—
Tulio +50.0%
Carpenter vs Ochoa🟡Clayton Carpenter50.0%N/A—Jose Ochoa50.0%N/A—
Ochoa +50.0%
Susurkaev vs Santos🟡Baisangur Susurkaev50.0%N/A—Djorden Santos50.0%N/A—
Santos +50.0%

Event Discussion

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