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UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 Event Analytics & Predictions

UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 Poster - UFC Fight Analytics
Saturday, December 6, 2025
Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
T-Mobile Arena
completed14 Fights๐Ÿ† 2 Title Fights
Main Card: ESPN+ PPV
Prelims: ESPN/ESPN+
Start Time: 10:00 PM ET
Start Time by Timezone
Times are estimated; Early Prelims ~2h, Prelims ~2h, Main Card ~2h. Subject to change.
ET (Local)
Las Vegas (ET shown)
Early
7:00 PM
Prelims
8:00 PM
Main
10:00 PM
PT
Pacific US/Canada
Early
4:00 PM
Prelims
5:00 PM
Main
7:00 PM
BST
United Kingdom / Ireland
Early
12:00 AM (Sun)
Prelims
1:00 AM (Sun)
Main
3:00 AM (Sun)
CET
Central Europe
Early
1:00 AM (Sun)
Prelims
2:00 AM (Sun)
Main
4:00 AM (Sun)
ET
Eastern US/Canada
Early
7:00 PM
Prelims
8:00 PM
Main
10:00 PM

UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 โ€” Predictions, Odds & Start Time

Full Fight Card Analytics & Breakdowns (Tโ€‘Mobile Arena)

Advanced UFC 323 analysis for Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 featuring detailed fighter performance metrics, model probabilities vs market odds, expert UFC betting picks, how to watch and start time. Our MMA analytics platform delivers inโ€‘depth technical breakdowns and predictions for a championship doubleโ€‘header and the full card including Pantoja vs Van.

We provide superโ€‘detailed fight analyses using proprietary MMA data and AIโ€‘powered models to maximize decisionโ€‘making value. Access fightโ€‘byโ€‘fight value betting analysis โ€” model probabilities vs market odds, best value bets, projected odds and actionable fight picks.

๐Ÿ“ŠAnalysis Reliability Framework

Our analytical model considers UFC experience as one of several factors for optimal predictions. While we can analyze any fight, fighters with 5+ UFC bouts provide more comprehensive data for our statistical modeling. This doesn't diminish the quality of our analysis for newer fighters - it's simply one criterion we factor into our confidence assessments.

๐Ÿ”ด

High Risk (**)

<3 UFC Bouts

Limited UFC data available. Analysis relies more heavily on external sources and pre-UFC performance patterns.

๐ŸŸก

Moderate Risk (*)

3-4 UFC Bouts

Meaningful UFC sample size with good analytical foundation. Reliable insights with solid confidence levels.

๐ŸŸข

Optimal Data

5+ UFC Bouts

Comprehensive statistical foundation enabling highest confidence analysis and predictive accuracy.

Note: All fights receive thorough analysis regardless of UFC experience levels. This framework simply helps calibrate confidence in our predictions.

UFC 323 Fights, Analytics & Predictions

๐Ÿ’ก

We display the best available odds for each fighter to maximize value. Preference is given to BetOnline when available; otherwise, we select the highestโ€‘value line and show the sportsbook and implied probability (I.P %).

๐Ÿ† Main Event
๐ŸŸข
Merab Dvalishvili

Merab Dvalishvili

"The Machine"

21-5-0

๐Ÿ† UFC Bantamweight Championship
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
Petr Yan

Petr Yan

"No Mercy"

20-5-0

โญ Co-Main Event
๐ŸŸข
Alexandre Pantoja

Alexandre Pantoja

"The Cannibal"

30-6-0

๐Ÿ† UFC Flyweight Championship
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
๐ŸŸข
Henry Cejudo

Henry Cejudo

"Triple C"

16-6-0

Bantamweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
๐ŸŸข
Light Heavyweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
๐ŸŸข
Brandon Moreno

Brandon Moreno

"The Assassin Baby"

23-9-2

Flyweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
๐ŸŸข
Grant Dawson

Grant Dawson

"KGD"

23-3-1

Lightweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
Manuel Torres

Manuel Torres

"El Loco"

17-3-0

๐ŸŸข
Women's Flyweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
๐Ÿ”ด
Middleweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
๐ŸŸข
Chris Duncan

Chris Duncan

"The Problem"

15-2-0

Lightweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
Terrance McKinney

Terrance McKinney

"T.Wrecks"

17-8-0

๐ŸŸข
Nazim Sadykhov

Nazim Sadykhov

"Black Wolf"

11-2-1

Lightweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
Fares Ziam

Fares Ziam

"Smile Killer"

18-4-0

๐ŸŸข
Marvin Vettori

Marvin Vettori

"The Italian Dream"

19-9-1

Catchweight (189 lbs)
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
Brunno Ferreira

Brunno Ferreira

"The Hulk"

15-2-0

๐ŸŸข
Edson Barboza

Edson Barboza

"Junior"

24-14-0

Lightweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
Jalin Turner

Jalin Turner

"The Tarantula"

15-9-0

๐Ÿ”ด
Ibo Aslan

Ibo Aslan

14-4-0

Light Heavyweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
๐ŸŸก
Catchweight (148 lbs)
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet

Model Probabilities vs Market Odds Summary

FightFighter AModel Prob AMarket Odds AImplied Prob AFighter BModel Prob BMarket Odds BImplied Prob BValue
Dvalishvili vs Yan๐ŸŸขMerab Dvalishvili67.0%N/Aโ€”Petr Yan33.0%N/Aโ€”Dvalishvili +67.0%
Pantoja vs Van๐ŸŸขAlexandre Pantoja68.0%N/Aโ€”Joshua Van32.0%N/Aโ€”Pantoja +68.0%
Cejudo vs Talbott๐ŸŸขHenry Cejudo39.0%N/Aโ€”Payton Talbott61.0%N/Aโ€”Talbott +61.0%
Bล‚achowicz vs Guskov๐ŸŸขJan Bล‚achowicz38.0%N/Aโ€”Bogdan Guskov62.0%N/Aโ€”Guskov +62.0%
Moreno vs Taira๐ŸŸขBrandon Moreno60.0%N/Aโ€”Tatsuro Taira40.0%N/Aโ€”Moreno +60.0%
Dawson vs Torres๐ŸŸขGrant Dawson68.0%N/Aโ€”Manuel Torres32.0%N/Aโ€”Dawson +68.0%
Barber vs Silva๐ŸŸขMaycee Barber63.0%N/Aโ€”Karine Silva37.0%N/Aโ€”Barber +63.0%
Duncan vs McKinney๐ŸŸขChris Duncan55.0%N/Aโ€”Terrance McKinney45.0%N/Aโ€”Duncan +55.0%
Sadykhov vs Ziam๐ŸŸขNazim Sadykhov38.0%N/Aโ€”Fares Ziam62.0%N/Aโ€”Ziam +62.0%
Vettori vs Ferreira๐ŸŸขMarvin Vettori61.0%N/Aโ€”Brunno Ferreira39.0%N/Aโ€”Vettori +61.0%
Barboza vs Turner๐ŸŸขEdson Barboza58.0%N/Aโ€”Jalin Turner42.0%N/Aโ€”Barboza +58.0%
Naimov vs Santos๐ŸŸกMuhammad Naimov30.0%N/Aโ€”Mairon Santos70.0%N/Aโ€”Santos +70.0%
High Value
15%+ Edge
Medium Value
10-15% Edge
Low Value
5-10% Edge
No Value
Under 5% Edge

Accuracy of our Picks

๐Ÿ“Š Overall Summary (Optimal + Moderate)

5/12
Correct Picks
42%
Accuracy
-3.36u
Total Units
-28.0%
ROI

๐ŸŽฏ Optimal Setup (4W-6L-1D)

36%
Accuracy
-3.82u
Units
-34.7%
ROI
Merab Dvalishvilivs Petr Yan
โœ—-1.00u
Alexandre Pantojavs Joshua Van
โœ—-1.00u
Payton Talbottvs Henry Cejudo(-275)
โœ“+0.36u
Bogdan Guskovvs Jan Bล‚achowicz
โ€“0.00u
Brandon Morenovs Tatsuro Taira
โœ—-1.00u
Grant Dawsonvs Manuel Torres
โœ—-1.00u
Maycee Barbervs Karine Silva(-170)
โœ“+0.59u
Chris Duncanvs Terrance McKinney(-190)
โœ“+0.53u
Fares Ziamvs Nazim Sadykhov(-142)
โœ“+0.70u
Marvin Vettorivs Brunno Ferreira
โœ—-1.00u
Edson Barbozavs Jalin Turner
โœ—-1.00u

โš ๏ธ Moderate Risk (1W-0L)

100%
Accuracy
+0.45u
Units
+45.5%
ROI
Mairon Santosvs Muhammad Naimov(-220)
โœ“+0.45u

Fight of the Night ($50,000 each)

Petr Yanvs Merab Dvalishvili
Merab Dvalishvilivs Petr Yan

Performance of the Night ($50,000)

Manuel Torresvs Grant Dawson
Iwo Baraniewskivs Ibo Aslan

Event Discussion

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