UFC 321: Aspinall vs Gane Event Analytics & Predictions
UFC 321 Abu Dhabi: Aspinall vs Gane Predictions, Odds & Start Time
Full Fight Card Analytics & Breakdowns (Heavyweight Championship Headliner)
Advanced UFC 321 analysis for Aspinall vs Gane featuring detailed fighter performance metrics, model probabilities vs market odds, expert UFC betting picks, how to watch and start time. Our MMA analytics platform delivers inβdepth technical breakdowns, statistical analysis and predictions for the heavyweight title fight and the full card including Volkov vs Almeida.
We provide superβdetailed fight analyses using proprietary MMA data and AIβpowered models to maximize decisionβmaking value. Access fightβbyβfight value betting analysis β model probabilities vs market odds, best value bets, projected odds and actionable fight picks. Stay updated with UFC 321 news on fighters and camps, training and preparation notes, weighβins, injuries and market movement β aligned to highβintent keywords like predictions, odds, full fight card, value bets and model edges.
πAnalysis Reliability Framework
Our analytical model considers UFC experience as one of several factors for optimal predictions. While we can analyze any fight, fighters with 5+ UFC bouts provide more comprehensive data for our statistical modeling. This doesn't diminish the quality of our analysis for newer fighters - it's simply one criterion we factor into our confidence assessments.
High Risk (**)
<3 UFC Bouts
Limited UFC data available. Analysis relies more heavily on external sources and pre-UFC performance patterns.
Moderate Risk (*)
3-4 UFC Bouts
Meaningful UFC sample size with good analytical foundation. Reliable insights with solid confidence levels.
Optimal Data
5+ UFC Bouts
Comprehensive statistical foundation enabling highest confidence analysis and predictive accuracy.
Note: All fights receive thorough analysis regardless of UFC experience levels. This framework simply helps calibrate confidence in our predictions.
UFC 321 Fights, Analytics & Predictions
We display the best available odds for each fighter to maximize value. Preference is given to BetOnline when available; otherwise, we select the highestβvalue line and show the sportsbook and implied probability (I.P %).
Tom Aspinall
15-3-1
Umar Nurmagomedov
19-1-0
Mario Bautista
16-3-0
Azat Maksum
15-3-0
Mitch Raposo
10-3-0
Nasrat Haqparast
18-5-0
Quillan Salkilld
9-1-0
Valter Walker
14-1-0
Louie Sutherland
10-3-0
Model Probabilities vs Market Odds Summary
| Fight | Fighter A | Model Prob A | Market Odds A | Implied Prob A | Fighter B | Model Prob B | Market Odds B | Implied Prob B | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom vs Cirylπ’ | Tom Aspinall | 54.0% | N/A | β | Ciryl Gane | 46.0% | N/A | β | Aspinall +54.0% |
| Virna vs Mackenzieπ’ | Virna Jandiroba | 65.0% | N/A | β | Mackenzie Dern | 35.0% | N/A | β | Jandiroba +65.0% |
| Alexander vs Jailtonπ’ | Alexander Volkov | 38.0% | N/A | β | Jailton Almeida | 62.0% | N/A | β | Almeida +62.0% |
| Aleksandar vs Azamatπ’ | Aleksandar RakiΔ | 35.0% | N/A | β | Azamat Murzakanov | 65.0% | N/A | β | Murzakanov +65.0% |
| Umar vs Marioπ’ | Umar Nurmagomedov | 75.0% | N/A | β | Mario Bautista | 25.0% | N/A | β | Nurmagomedov +75.0% |
| Azat vs Mitchπ‘ | Azat Maksum | 70.0% | N/A | β | Mitch Raposo | 30.0% | N/A | β | Maksum +70.0% |
| Ikram vs Junπ‘ | Ikram Aliskerov | 70.0% | N/A | β | Jun Yong Park | 30.0% | N/A | β | Aliskerov +70.0% |
| Mateusz vs Ludovitπ’ | Mateusz Rebecki | 35.0% | N/A | β | Ludovit Klein | 65.0% | N/A | β | Klein +65.0% |
Accuracy of our Picks
Event Discussion
Event Highlights
Event Preview
Heavyweight Championship
Tom Aspinall challenges Ciryl "Bon Gamin" Gane for the Heavyweight Championship in Abu Dhabi. This technical masterpiece features Aspinall's explosive grappling and submission skills against Gane's elite striking and footwork. The Englishman's finishing ability meets the Frenchman's technical precision in what promises to be a defining moment for the heavyweight division.
International Showcase
UFC 321 represents the global reach of mixed martial arts, taking place at the stunning Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi. The card features international talent from six countries, showcasing the worldwide depth of MMA skill. The early start time accommodates global audiences for this Middle Eastern championship spectacle.
Division-Defining Moments
Beyond the championship bout, UFC 321 features crucial divisional matchups. Alexander Volkov faces Jailton Almeida in a heavyweight bout that could determine the next title challenger, while Jailton Almeida in a heavyweight bout that could determine the next title challenger, while Aleksandar RakiΔ seeks redemption against the undefeated Azamat Murzakanov in light heavyweight action. The flyweight division is represented by prospects Azat Maksum and Mitch Raposo, showcasing the future of the 125-pound weight class. Additional action includes heavyweight veterans Chris Barnett vs Hamdy Abdelwahab, middleweight prospects Ikram Aliskerov vs Jun Yong Park, women's strawweight contenders Jaqueline Amorim vs Mizuki Inoue, and lightweight action between Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady and Matheus Camilo.
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