UFC 319: du Plessis vs Chimaev - Event Fights, Analytics & Predictions
UFC 319 Chicago: Du Plessis vs Chimaev Predictions, Odds & Start Time
UFC 319 Full Fight Card Analytics & Breakdowns at United Center (Chicago, IL)
Advanced UFC 319 fight card analysis for Chicago at the United Center on August 16, 2025, featuring detailed fighter performance metrics, model probabilities vs market odds, expert UFC betting picks and how to watch with main card start time 10:00 PM ET. Our comprehensive MMA analytics platform delivers in-depth technical breakdowns, statistical analysis and predictions for Du Plessis vs Chimaev and the full card.
We deliver super‑detailed fight analysis using proprietary MMA data combined with AI‑powered models to maximize decision‑making value. Get fight‑by‑fight value betting analysis with model probabilities vs market odds, best value bets, projected odds and actionable fight picks. Plus ongoing UFC 319 news on fighters, camps and preparation, weigh‑ins, injuries and market movement — aligned to high‑intent keywords like predictions, odds, full fight card, value bets and model edges.
📊Analysis Reliability Framework
Our analytical model considers UFC experience as one of several factors for optimal predictions. While we can analyze any fight, fighters with 5+ UFC bouts provide more comprehensive data for our statistical modeling. This doesn't diminish the quality of our analysis for newer fighters - it's simply one criterion we factor into our confidence assessments.
High Risk (**)
<3 UFC Bouts
Limited UFC data available. Analysis relies more heavily on external sources and pre-UFC performance patterns.
Moderate Risk (*)
3-4 UFC Bouts
Meaningful UFC sample size with good analytical foundation. Reliable insights with solid confidence levels.
Optimal Data
5+ UFC Bouts
Comprehensive statistical foundation enabling highest confidence analysis and predictive accuracy.
Note: All fights receive thorough analysis regardless of UFC experience levels. This framework simply helps calibrate confidence in our predictions.
UFC 319: du Plessis vs Chimaev Fights, Analytics & Predictions
We display the best available odds for each fighter to maximize value. Preference is given to BetOnline when available; otherwise, we select the highest‑value line and show the sportsbook and implied probability (I.P %).
Performance of the Night
Performance of the Night
Aaron Pico
13-5-0
Performance of the NightCarlos Prates
22-7-0
Performance of the NightTim Elliott
21-13-1
Kai Asakura
21-6-0
Drakkar Klose
16-3-1
Event Recap
🏆Chimaev Crowned Champion in Dominant Fashion
Khamzat Chimaev realized his championship ambitions with a masterful grappling performance to defeat Dricus du Plessis and capture the UFC Middleweight title. He racked up overwhelming control time and left no doubt on the judges' scorecards (50-44 x3), extending his undefeated record to 15-0 and earning a Performance of the Night bonus.
💥A Night of Spectacular Spinning Elbow Finishes
Lerone Murphy and Carlos Prates both scored stunning first-round spinning back elbow knockouts, electrifying the crowd and earning Performance of the Night honors. Murphy stopped Aaron Pico at 3:21 of Round 1, while Prates delivered his KO with one second left in the opening frame at 4:59.
⭐Veterans Shine and Prospects Emerge
Tim Elliott submitted Kai Asakura with a rare guillotine from mount; Michał Oleksiejczuk blitzed Gerald Meerschaert with ground-and-pound; Alexander Hernandez secured a last-second R1 KO; Michael Page outpointed Jared Cannonier; Loopy Godinez earned a signature win over Jessica Andrade; and Drakkar Klose outworked Edson Barboza.
💰Official Performance Bonuses
- Performance of the Night: Khamzat Chimaev ($50,000)
- Performance of the Night: Lerone Murphy ($50,000)
- Performance of the Night: Carlos Prates ($50,000)
- Performance of the Night: Tim Elliott ($50,000)
Model Probabilities vs Market Odds Summary
| Fight | Fighter A | Model Prob A | Market Odds A | Implied Prob A | Fighter B | Model Prob B | Market Odds B | Implied Prob B | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus vs Khamzat🟢 | Dricus du Plessis | 62.0% | N/A | — | Khamzat Chimaev | 38.0% | N/A | — | Plessis +62.0% |
| Geoff vs Carlos🟢 | Geoff Neal | 60.0% | N/A | — | Carlos Prates | 40.0% | N/A | — | Neal +60.0% |
| Jared vs Michael🟡 | Jared Cannonier | 70.0% | N/A | — | Michael Page | 30.0% | N/A | — | Cannonier +70.0% |
| Gerald vs Michał🟢 | Gerald Meerschaert | 60.0% | N/A | — | Michał Oleksiejczuk | 40.0% | N/A | — | Meerschaert +60.0% |
| Jéssica vs Lupita🟢 | Jéssica Andrade | 43.0% | N/A | — | Lupita Godinez | 57.0% | N/A | — | Godinez +57.0% |
| Alexander vs Chase🟢 | Alexander Hernandez | 60.0% | N/A | — | Chase Hooper | 40.0% | N/A | — | Hernandez +60.0% |
| Edson vs Drakkar🟢 | Edson Barboza | 35.0% | N/A | — | Drakkar Klose | 65.0% | N/A | — | Klose +65.0% |
| Karine vs Dione🟡 | Karine Silva | 68.0% | N/A | — | Dione Barbosa | 32.0% | N/A | — | Silva +68.0% |
| King vs Diego🔴 | CANCELLED | — | — | — | CANCELLED | — | — | — | CANCELLED |
| Nursulton vs Bryan🟢 | CANCELLED | — | — | — | CANCELLED | — | — | — | CANCELLED |
Accuracy of our Picks
Overall Summary (Optimal + Moderate)
Correct Predictions (Optimal)
Incorrect Predictions (Optimal)
Moderate Risk Picks Summary
UFC 319 News & Articles
Inside Khamzat Chimaev's Revolutionary UFC 319 Training Camp: How Coach Cal's Garage Transformed "Borz" Into a Championship Machine
Inside Khamzat Chimaev's UFC 319 title-camp with Coach Cal: the garage, science-driven conditioning, elite partners, mental prep, and the road to August 16.
Expert Picks and Value Opportunities for UFC 319
Expert betting analysis and value picks for UFC 319: Du Plessis vs Chimaev, plus undercard opportunities and model vs market edges.
From Wrestling Prodigy to UFC Debut: The Complete Aaron Pico Story
Aaron Pico's journey from wrestling prodigy to his UFC 319 debut against Lerone Murphy — history, preparation, odds, and expert analysis.
