UFC 318: Holloway vs Poirier Event Analytics & Predictions
UFC 318 Analysis & Prediction
UFC 318 Analytics & Fight Breakdowns
Complete UFC 318 event results and analysis featuring the historic BMF Championship bout and spectacular finishes. Max Holloway captured the BMF title with a dominant decision victory over Dustin Poirier, while the card delivered multiple Performance of the Night bonuses and explosive finishes. Our comprehensive post-fight analysisprovides detailed breakdowns, statistical insights, and technical analysis of every bout from this memorable New Orleans event.
📊Analysis Reliability Framework
Our analytical model considers UFC experience as one of several factors for optimal predictions. While we can analyze any fight, fighters with 5+ UFC bouts provide more comprehensive data for our statistical modeling. This doesn't diminish the quality of our analysis for newer fighters - it's simply one criterion we factor into our confidence assessments.
High Risk (**)
<3 UFC Bouts
Limited UFC data available. Analysis relies more heavily on external sources and pre-UFC performance patterns.
Moderate Risk (*)
3-4 UFC Bouts
Meaningful UFC sample size with good analytical foundation. Reliable insights with solid confidence levels.
Optimal Data
5+ UFC Bouts
Comprehensive statistical foundation enabling highest confidence analysis and predictive accuracy.
Note: All fights receive thorough analysis regardless of UFC experience levels. This framework simply helps calibrate confidence in our predictions.
UFC 318 Fights, Analytics & Predictions
Event Recap
🏆Holloway Crowned in Five-Round War
The main event saw Max "Blessed" Holloway deliver a striking masterclass to dethrone Dustin "The Diamond" Poirier and capture the "BMF" belt. In an epic five-round battle, Holloway showed why he is one of the best pound-for-pound strikers in the world, using his relentless volume and precision to dominate Poirier. Although "The Diamond" had his moments, Holloway's endurance and pace were overwhelming, securing a unanimous decision victory and adding a prestigious new title to his legendary career.
💥A Night of Finishes and Technical Showcases
The card was packed with action and spectacular finishes. The night kicked off with a series of quick first-round submissions, as Brunno Ferreira, Ryan Spann, and Jimmy Crute displayed their grappling dominance. Knockout power was also on full display, with Islam Dulatov and Ateba Gautier securing brutal first-round stoppages. Carli Judice closed out the preliminary card with an impressive third-round TKO, earning a well-deserved performance bonus.
⭐Memorable Night Highlights
UFC 318 delivered an unforgettable evening with fights that lived up to the hype. The battle between Brendan Allen and Marvin Vettori was awarded "Fight of the Night," a clash of styles in the middleweight division that kept fans on the edge of their seats. Paulo Costa returned to the win column with a solid performance against Roman Kopylov, while veterans like Patrício Pitbull and Michael Johnson proved their mettle with decision victories. From hard-fought decisions to explosive finishes, the event showcased the incredible depth of talent across all of the UFC's divisions.
Accuracy of our Picks
Our AI-powered MMA analytics model correctly predicted 4 out of 8 fight outcomes for the UFC 318: Holloway vs Poirier optimal setup bouts, achieving a 50% accuracy rate. With proper odds calculation, we finished with a -0.86 unit loss for this event. These were fights where both fighters had sufficient UFC experience for reliable statistical analysis.
Correct Predictions (4) | +2.14 Units
Predicted: Holloway (58%) ✓ Won: Holloway | +0.83 Units (-120 odds)
Predicted: Allen (58%) ✓ Won: Allen | +0.63 Units (-160 odds)
Predicted: Crute (65%) ✓ Won: Crute | +0.25 Units (-400 odds)
Predicted: Spann (75%) ✓ Won: Spann | +0.43 Units (-230 odds)
Incorrect Predictions (4) | -4 Units
Predicted: Zellhuber (58%) ✗ Won: Johnson | -1 Unit (-900 odds)
Predicted: Kopylov (65%) ✗ Won: Costa | -1 Unit (-210 odds)
Predicted: Holland (58%) ✗ Won: Rodriguez | -1 Unit (-625 odds)
Predicted: Oliveira (58%) ✗ Won: Phillips | -1 Unit (no odds provided)
Betting Unit System: Each pick represents 1 unit. Actual odds determine profit/loss. Total P&L: +2.14 (wins) - 4 (losses) = -0.86 units
These 8 optimal setup fights featured fighters with sufficient UFC experience for reliable analysis. Our 50% accuracy rate resulted in a net loss due to the heavy favorites providing minimal profit despite winning.
Model Probabilities vs Market Odds Summary
| Fight | Fighter A | Model Prob A | Market Odds A | Implied Prob A | Fighter B | Model Prob B | Market Odds B | Implied Prob B | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max vs Dustin | Max Holloway | 58.0% | -130 | 56.5% | Dustin Poirier | 42.0% | +110 | 47.6% | Aligned |
| Michael vs Daniel | Michael Johnson | 42.0% | +375 | 21.1% | Daniel Zellhuber | 58.0% | -500 | 83.3% | Johnson +20.9% |
| Paulo vs Roman | Paulo Costa | 35.0% | +235 | 29.9% | Roman Kopylov | 65.0% | -275 | 73.3% | Costa +5.1% |
| Kevin vs Daniel | Kevin Holland | 58.0% | -375 | 78.9% | Daniel Rodriguez | 42.0% | +310 | 24.4% | Rodriguez +17.6% |
| Marvin vs Brendan | Marvin Vettori | 42.0% | +225 | 30.8% | Brendan Allen | 58.0% | -265 | 72.6% | Vettori +11.2% |
| Kyler vs Vinicius | Kyler Phillips | 42.0% | +155 | 39.2% | Vinicius Oliveira (*) | 58.0% | -180 | 64.3% | Aligned |
| Jimmy vs Marcin | Jimmy Crute | 65.0% | -280 | 73.7% | Marcin Prachnio | 35.0% | +240 | 29.4% | Prachnio +5.6% |
| Ryan vs Lukasz | Ryan Spann | 75.0% | -245 | 71.0% | Lukasz Brzeski | 25.0% | +210 | 32.3% | Aligned |
Event Highlights
Event Recap
BMF Championship Victory
Max "Blessed" Hollowaycaptured the BMF Championship with a dominant unanimous decision victory overDustin "The Diamond" Poirier. Holloway's masterful striking display included 187 significant strikes and relentless pressure over five rounds, earning him a decisive 50-45 scorecard sweep. The performance reminded everyone why Holloway is considered one of the greatest strikers in MMA history.
Performance Bonuses & Finishes
UFC 318 delivered spectacular finishes with three Performance of the Night bonuses awarded. Islam Dulatov, Ateba Gautier, and Carli Judice all earned bonuses for their devastating knockout finishes. Brendan Allen vs Marvin Vettori took home Fight of the Night honors in a thrilling middleweight battle. The card featured multiple first-round finishes and showcased the incredible depth of talent across all divisions.
Memorable Moments
UFC 318 in New Orleans delivered unforgettable moments across seven weight classes.Holloway'sBMF title victory capped off a career-defining performance, whilePatricio Pitbull's successful UFC debutproved his elite status. The night featured spectacular finishes including devastating knockouts and slick submissions, with multiple prospects announcing their arrival in dramatic fashion. Veterans likeMichael JohnsonandPaulo Costashowed they still belong at the top level.