UFC 317: Topuria vs Oliveira - Championship Fight Analysis
UFC 317 Event Analysis & Predictions
UFC 317: Topuria vs Oliveira Analysis & Prediction
UFC 317 Analytics & Fight Breakdowns
In-depth UFC 317 fight analysis featuring championship bouts with detailed fighter performance data, AI-powered predictions, and expert UFC handicapping insights. Our comprehensive MMA analytics platform delivers technical breakdowns, statistical comparisons, and betting analysis for Topuria vs Oliveira and Pantoja vs Kara-France title fights.
📊Analysis Reliability Framework
Our analytical model considers UFC experience as one of several factors for optimal predictions. While we can analyze any fight, fighters with 5+ UFC bouts provide more comprehensive data for our statistical modeling. This doesn't diminish the quality of our analysis for newer fighters - it's simply one criterion we factor into our confidence assessments.
High Risk (**)
<3 UFC Bouts
Limited UFC data available. Analysis relies more heavily on external sources and pre-UFC performance patterns.
Moderate Risk (*)
3-4 UFC Bouts
Meaningful UFC sample size with good analytical foundation. Reliable insights with solid confidence levels.
Optimal Data
5+ UFC Bouts
Comprehensive statistical foundation enabling highest confidence analysis and predictive accuracy.
Note: All fights receive thorough analysis regardless of UFC experience levels. This framework simply helps calibrate confidence in our predictions.
Hyder Amil
11-1-0
Jose Delgado
10-1-0
Model Probabilities vs Market Odds Summary
| Fight | Fighter A | Model Prob A | Market Odds A | Implied Prob A | Fighter B | Model Prob B | Market Odds B | Implied Prob B | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles vs Ilia | Charles Oliveira | 42.0% | +400 | 20.0% | Ilia Topuria | 58.0% | -525 | 84.0% | Oliveira +22.0% |
| Alexandre vs Kai | Alexandre Pantoja | 60.0% | -250 | 71.4% | Kai Kara-France | 40.0% | +210 | 32.3% | Kara-France +7.7% |
| Renato vs Beneil | Renato Moicano | 45.0% | -120 | 54.5% | Beneil Dariush | 55.0% | +100 | 50.0% | Dariush +5.0% |
| Jack vs Gregory | Jack Hermansson | 58.0% | +185 | 35.1% | Gregory Rodrigues | 42.0% | -220 | 68.8% | Hermansson +22.9% |
| Brandon vs Joshua | Brandon Royval | 38.0% | +100 | 50.0% | Joshua Van | 62.0% | -120 | 54.5% | Van +7.5% |
| Payton vs Felipe | Payton Talbott | 60.0% | +160 | 38.5% | Felipe Lima | 40.0% | -185 | 64.9% | Talbott +21.5% |
| Jhonata vs Alvin | Jhonata Diniz | 65.0% | -355 | 78.0% | Alvin Hines | 35.0% | +290 | 25.6% | Hines +9.4% |
| Viviane vs Tracy | Viviane Araujo | 28.0% | +220 | 31.3% | Tracy Cortez | 72.0% | -260 | 72.2% | Aligned |
| Terrance vs Viacheslav | Terrance McKinney | 72.0% | -164 | 62.1% | Viacheslav Borshchev | 28.0% | +144 | 41.0% | McKinney +9.9% |
| Hyder vs Jose | Hyder Amil | 57.0% | +131 | 43.3% | Jose Delgado | 43.0% | -151 | 60.2% | Amil +13.7% |
| Niko vs Jacobe | Niko Price | 18.0% | +1200 | 7.7% | Jacobe Smith | 82.0% | -2500 | 96.2% | Price +10.3% |
| Christopher vs Jackson | Christopher Ewert | 58.0% | -130 | 56.5% | Jackson McVey | 42.0% | +110 | 47.6% | Aligned |
Accuracy of our Picks
Overall Summary (Optimal + Moderate)
Correct Predictions (Optimal)
Incorrect Predictions (Optimal)
Moderate Risk Picks Summary
Event Highlights
Event Recap
Spectacular Main Event
The main event delivered in spectacular fashion as Ilia Topuria proved his power translates perfectly to the lightweight division. The undefeated champion stunned the MMA world by knocking out Charles Oliveira in just 2:27 of the first round with a devastating combination. Topuria's calculated aggression and precise striking neutralized Oliveira's legendary grappling, capturing the lightweight title and cementing his status as a dual-division threat.
Championship Excellence
The co-main event showcased Alexandre Pantoja's championship resilience as he successfully defended his flyweight title against Kai Kara-France. After a competitive striking battle through two rounds, Pantoja secured a crucial takedown in the third and expertly transitioned to a rear-naked choke, demonstrating his complete skill set and proving why he's the king of the flyweight division.
Memorable Night Highlights
UFC 317 delivered an unforgettable night of action with multiple spectacular finishes. The card featured three devastating first-round knockouts (Topuria, Rodrigues, Delgado) and two impressive submissions (Pantoja, McKinney, Smith). Several undefeated records were tested, with Hyder Amil and Alvin Hines suffering their first professional losses, while others like Jacobe Smith and Joshua Van continued their perfect streaks. The canceled bout between Ewert and McVey was the only disappointment on an otherwise perfect night.
💰 Official Performance Bonuses
Brandon Royval vs. Joshua Van - A thrilling back-and-forth flyweight battle that showcased both fighters' skills in an entertaining unanimous decision.
• Ilia Topuria - Spectacular first-round knockout of Charles Oliveira with a devastating combination
• Gregory Rodrigues - Brutal left hook knockout that ended Jack Hermansson's night in the first round