Where is UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan being held?

The event is at Meta APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada, United States.

Where can I find predictions, odds and fight card breakdowns for UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan?

This page provides AI-powered predictions, model probabilities vs market odds, best value bets and full fight card analysis for UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan.

Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan - UFC APEX Las Vegas

Q: When is UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan and what time does it start?

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan takes place on April 4, 2026. The main card starts at 6:00 PM ET on Paramount+.

Saturday, April 4, 2026

Las Vegas, Nevada, United States

Meta APEX

completed14 Fights🏆 0 Title Fights

Main Card: Paramount+

Prelims: Paramount+

Start Time: 6:00 PM ET

Start Time by Timezone

Times are estimated; Early Prelims ~2h, Prelims ~2h, Main Card ~2h. Subject to change.

PT (Local)

Las Vegas (PT shown)

Early

2:00 PM

Prelims

3:00 PM

Main

5:00 PM

Eastern US/Canada

Early

5:00 PM

Prelims

6:00 PM

Main

8:00 PM

BST

United Kingdom / Ireland

Early

10:00 PM

Prelims

11:00 PM

Main

1:00 AM (Sun)

CET

Central Europe

Early

11:00 PM

Prelims

12:00 AM (Sun)

Main

2:00 AM (Sun)

AEST

Australia (East)

Early

9:00 AM (Sun)

Prelims

10:00 AM (Sun)

Main

12:00 PM (Sun)

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UFC Fight Night Las Vegas: Full Card Analytics & Predictions

Moicano vs. Duncan — Meta APEX, Las Vegas — April 4, 2026

This one's a grappler's dream. Renato Moicano (20-7-1) brings world-class BJJ credentials into a lightweight main event against Scotland's Chris Duncan (15-2) — and here's the twist: Duncan is a submission artist too. Moicano's 12 UFC wins include 6 by submission (50%), making him one of the most dangerous grapplers in the 155-pound division. Duncan, just 27, has won six of seven UFC bouts — three by sub, three by decision — with zero knockouts. This fight will be won on the mat. Paramount+ at 6:00 PM ET.

Our AI-powered analytics cover every fight on the card with model probabilities vs. market odds and value-bet flags. Keep an eye on the undercard: Jandiroba vs. Ricci is a near coin-flip (52-48 model split), and Park vs. Shahbazyan (57-43 edge to Park) could deliver fireworks.

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What is UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan?

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan takes place April 4, 2026, at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas on Paramount+ (main card 6:00 PM ET). It's a battle of submission hunters: Renato Moicano (20-7-1, 12-7 UFC) chokes people out for a living — 50% of his UFC wins by submission, another 17% by KO/TKO. Chris Duncan (15-2, 6-1 UFC) mirrors that ground game with half his UFC wins by submission and the other half by decision, zero knockouts. When both fighters want the fight on the mat, the scrambles should be elite. The 14-fight card spans five weight classes.

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What are the predictions for Moicano vs. Duncan?

Moicano gets the nod at 64% in the main event — his championship-round cardio and higher submission volume should wear down a less battle-tested Duncan over five rounds. On the undercard, Park at 57% over Shahbazyan is an interesting live dog spot (early KO power vs. a fighter who fades late), Nicoll at 68% over Costa projects a clinch-to-ground path to victory, and Barbosa at 68% over Gatto should thrive with grappling pressure in the APEX's smaller cage. Every fight on the card includes win probabilities, method-of-victory likelihoods, and model-vs-market comparisons to spot value.

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How to watch UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan and what time does it start?

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan goes down Saturday, April 4, 2026. Main card at 6:00 PM ET (2:00 PM PT / 10:00 PM GMT / 9:00 AM AEDT Sunday) on Paramount+. Prelims start roughly two hours earlier, also on Paramount+. The Meta APEX in Las Vegas serves as the venue — the UFC's compact arena that amplifies every exchange.

Main Event — Lightweight

Moicano vs. Duncan

Moicano's 12-7 UFC record tells the story: 6 submissions (50%) and 2 KO/TKOs — the man finishes fights on the mat. Duncan is 6-1 with 3 sub wins and 3 decisions, zero knockouts. Model favors Moicano at 64%, but Duncan's ground game makes the scrambles unpredictable.

Closest Fight — Strawweight

Jandiroba vs. Ricci

The closest fight on the card at 52-48 in Jandiroba's favor. Her elite submission game meets Ricci's defensive efficiency — this comes down to who controls the grappling exchanges.

Upset Watch — Middleweight

Park vs. Shahbazyan

Park at 57% over Shahbazyan is worth watching. Park's early knockout power and high-volume pressure exploit a fighter who historically fades in late rounds — if it goes past round 2, Park should pull away.

📊Analysis Reliability Framework

Our analytical model considers UFC experience as one of several factors for optimal predictions. While we can analyze any fight, fighters with 5+ UFC bouts provide more comprehensive data for our statistical modeling. This doesn't diminish the quality of our analysis for newer fighters - it's simply one criterion we factor into our confidence assessments.

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High Risk (**)

<3 UFC Bouts

Limited UFC data available. Analysis relies more heavily on external sources and pre-UFC performance patterns.

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Moderate Risk (*)

3-4 UFC Bouts

Meaningful UFC sample size with good analytical foundation. Reliable insights with solid confidence levels.

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Optimal Data

5+ UFC Bouts

Comprehensive statistical foundation enabling highest confidence analysis and predictive accuracy.

Note: All fights receive thorough analysis regardless of UFC experience levels. This framework simply helps calibrate confidence in our predictions.

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan Fights, Analytics & Predictions

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We display the best available odds for each fighter to maximize value. Preference is given to BetOnline when available; otherwise, we select the highest‑value line and show the sportsbook and implied probability (I.P %).

Darrius Flowers

12-8-1

⛔ CANCELLED

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Edmen Shahbazyan

16-5-0

Middleweight

CANCELLED

Market Odds

...vs...

No picks yet

Jun Yong Park

19-7-0

Model Probabilities vs Market Odds Summary

Fight	Fighter A	Model Prob A	Market Odds A	Implied Prob A	Fighter B	Model Prob B	Market Odds B	Implied Prob B	Value
Moicano vs Duncan🟢	Renato Moicano	64.0%	N/A	—	Chris Duncan	36.0%	N/A	—	Moicano +64.0%Experience, cardio, and elite BJJ in championship rounds
Jandiroba vs Ricci🟢	Virna Jandiroba	52.0%	N/A	—	Tabatha Ricci	48.0%	N/A	—	Jandiroba +52.0%Elite submission threat and defensive efficiency
Costa vs Nicoll🟡	Alessandro Costa	32.0%	N/A	—	Stewart Nicoll	68.0%	N/A	—	Nicoll +68.0%Submission path via clinch and ground control
Barbosa vs Gatto🟡	Dione Barbosa	68.0%	N/A	—	Melissa Gatto	32.0%	N/A	—	Barbosa +68.0%Grappling pressure and damage economy in small cage
Bekoev vs Gore🟡	Azamat Bekoev	68.0%	N/A	—	Tresean Gore	32.0%	N/A	—	Bekoev +68.0%Grappling pressure and damage economy in small cage
Vannata vs Flowers🟡	Lando Vannata	74.0%	N/A	—	Darrius Flowers	26.0%	N/A	—	Vannata +74.0%Striking defense edge, volume, and submission threat

Event Discussion

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Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan - UFC APEX Las Vegas

UFC Fight Night Las Vegas: Full Card Analytics & Predictions

What is UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan?

What are the predictions for Moicano vs. Duncan?

How to watch UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan and what time does it start?

Moicano vs. Duncan

Jandiroba vs. Ricci

Park vs. Shahbazyan

📊Analysis Reliability Framework

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan Fights, Analytics & Predictions

Renato Moicano

Chris Duncan

Virna Jandiroba

Tabatha Ricci

Hailey Cowan

Alice Pereira

Alessandro Costa

Stewart Nicoll

Dione Barbosa

Melissa Gatto

Azamat Bekoev

Tresean Gore

Tommy McMillen

Manolo Zecchini

Thomas Petersen

Guilherme Pat

Robert Ruchala

Jose Delano

Rafael Estevam

Ethyn Ewing

Charles Radtke

Jose Henrique Souza

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev

Brendson Ribeiro

Lando Vannata

Darrius Flowers

Edmen Shahbazyan

Jun Yong Park

Model Probabilities vs Market Odds Summary

Event Discussion

THE FUTURE OFCOMBAT SPORTS ANALYTICS

THE FUTURE OF
COMBAT SPORTS ANALYTICS