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UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer Event Analytics & Predictions

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer Poster - UFC Fight Analytics
Saturday, March 28, 2026
Seattle, Washington
Climate Pledge Arena
⚡ Upcoming Event12 Fights
Main Card: ESPN+
Prelims: ESPN+
Start Time: 5:00 PM ET
Start Time by Timezone
Times are estimated; Early Prelims ~2h, Prelims ~2h, Main Card ~2h. Subject to change.
PT (Local)
Seattle (PT shown)
Early
12:00 PM
Prelims
2:00 PM
Main
5:00 PM
ET
Eastern US/Canada
Early
3:00 PM
Prelims
5:00 PM
Main
8:00 PM
GMT
United Kingdom / Ireland
Early
7:00 PM
Prelims
9:00 PM
Main
12:00 AM (Sun)
CET
Central Europe
Early
8:00 PM
Prelims
10:00 PM
Main
1:00 AM (Sun)
AEST
Australia (East)
Early
6:00 AM (Sun)
Prelims
8:00 AM (Sun)
Main
11:00 AM (Sun)

What is UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer?

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer is a UFC event scheduled for March 28, 2026, at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, Washington. The five-round middleweight main event features former champion Israel Adesanya (24-5), nicknamed “The Last Stylebender,” against rising contender Joe Pyfer (15-3). Adesanya brings elite striking with a compositeStriking score of 95, an 80-inch reach advantage, and 80% takedown defense. Pyfer is an aggressive finisher who lands 5.8 significant strikes per minute, the highest output on the card. The co-main features Alexa Grasso vs. Maycee Barber at women's flyweight. The entire card streams live on ESPN+.

What are the predictions for Adesanya vs. Pyfer?

MMA Analytics uses a five-model machine learning ensemble (LightGBM, XGBoost, CatBoost, Logistic Regression, and a Siamese Neural Network) to generate fight predictions. The model analyzes 45 SHAP-selected features and achieves 67.6% accuracy on held-out test data. For each fight on the UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer card, the system produces win probabilities, method-of-victory likelihoods, and confidence metrics, comparing model probabilities against market odds to identify potential value bets. All predictions are generated from historical fighter performance data, matchup dynamics, and physical attributes without human editorial bias.

How to watch UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer and what time does it start?

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer takes place on Saturday, March 28, 2026, at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, Washington. The main card begins at 5:00 PM ET / 2:00 PM PT / 9:00 PM GMT / 8:00 AM AEDT (Sunday). Both the prelims and main card stream exclusively on ESPN+ in the United States. This event features a prime-time evening start for East Coast viewers, with the main event expected to begin around 8:00 PM ET.

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer — Predictions, Odds & Start Time

Full Fight Card Analytics & Breakdowns (Climate Pledge Arena)

Advanced UFC Fight Night analysis for Adesanya vs Pyfer featuring detailed fighter performance metrics, model probabilities vs market odds, expert UFC betting picks, how to watch and start time. Our MMA analytics platform delivers in‑depth breakdowns for a marquee middleweight headliner at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle. Former UFC Middleweight Champion Israel Adesanya — widely regarded as one of the greatest strikers in MMA history — faces knockout artist Joe Pyfer. The co‑main features Alexa Grasso vs Maycee Barber in women's flyweight, plus Michael Chiesa vs Curtis Harris in welterweight and Tybura vs Valter Walker in a heavyweight clash.

We provide super‑detailed fight analyses using proprietary MMA data and AI‑powered models to maximize decision‑making value. Access fight‑by‑fight value betting analysis model probabilities vs market odds, best value bets, projected odds and actionable fight picks.

📊Analysis Reliability Framework

Our analytical model considers UFC experience as one of several factors for optimal predictions. While we can analyze any fight, fighters with 5+ UFC bouts provide more comprehensive data for our statistical modeling. This doesn't diminish the quality of our analysis for newer fighters - it's simply one criterion we factor into our confidence assessments.

🔴

High Risk (**)

<3 UFC Bouts

Limited UFC data available. Analysis relies more heavily on external sources and pre-UFC performance patterns.

🟡

Moderate Risk (*)

3-4 UFC Bouts

Meaningful UFC sample size with good analytical foundation. Reliable insights with solid confidence levels.

🟢

Optimal Data

5+ UFC Bouts

Comprehensive statistical foundation enabling highest confidence analysis and predictive accuracy.

Note: All fights receive thorough analysis regardless of UFC experience levels. This framework simply helps calibrate confidence in our predictions.

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer Fights, Analytics & Predictions

💡

We display the best available odds for each fighter to maximize value. Preference is given to BetOnline when available; otherwise, we select the highest-value line and show the sportsbook and implied probability (I.P %).

🏆 Main Event
🟢
Israel Adesanya

Israel Adesanya

"The Last Stylebender"

24-5-0

Middleweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet

Joe Pyfer

15-3-0

Joe Pyfer
🟢
Women's Flyweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet

Maycee Barber

"The Future"

15-2-0

Maycee Barber
🟢
Casey O'Neill

Casey O'Neill

"King Casey"

10-2-0

Women's Flyweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
🟢
Heavyweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
🟢
Michael Chiesa

Michael Chiesa

"Maverick"

19-7-0

Welterweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet

Carlston Harris

"Moçambique"

19-7-0

Carlston Harris
🔴
Middleweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet

Yousri Belgaroui

"Baby Face Assassin"

9-3-0

Yousri Belgaroui
🔴
Featherweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
🔴
Julian Erosa

Julian Erosa

"Juicy J"

31-12-0

Featherweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet

Lerryan Douglas

"Gunslinger"

13-5-0

Lerryan Douglas
🔴
Lightweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet

Lance Gibson Jr

"Fearless"

9-2-0

Lance Gibson Jr
🔴
Light Heavyweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
🔴
Women's Strawweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet

Stephanie Luciano

"Rondinha"

7-2-1

Stephanie Luciano
🟢
Terrance McKinney

Terrance McKinney

"T.Wrecks"

17-8-0

Lightweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet

Kyle Nelson

"The Monster"

17-6-1

Kyle Nelson

Model Probabilities vs Market Odds Summary

FightFighter AModel Prob AMarket Odds AImplied Prob AFighter BModel Prob BMarket Odds BImplied Prob BValue
Adesanya vs PyferAdesanya52.0%Pyfer48.0%+52.0% Adesanya
Grasso vs BarberGrasso34.0%Barber66.0%+66.0% Barber
O'Neill vs FernandesO'Neill62.0%Fernandes38.0%+62.0% O'Neill
Tybura vs WalkerTybura42.0%Walker58.0%+58.0% Walker
Chiesa vs HarrisChiesa62.0%Harris38.0%+62.0% Chiesa
McKinney vs NelsonMcKinney60.0%Nelson40.0%+60.0% McKinney

Event Discussion

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