Exclusive UFC Offer: Join BetOnline through our link and unlock up to $250 in free bets + 100 free spins. BetOnline delivers the earliest and fairest UFC/MMA odds in the market, giving you the competitive edge you need. Start winning today with exclusive access to live betting, mobile apps, 24/7 support, and VIP rewards program!
⚡ LIMITED TIME! Accepts Cryptocurrency. Register now before this exclusive offer expires!
Please gamble responsibly.
BetOnline UFC – Promotional Offer

UFC London: Evloev vs. Murphy Predictions & Odds | The O2 Arena

UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy Poster - UFC Fight Analytics
Saturday, March 21, 2026
London, England
The O2
completed14 Fights
Main Card: Paramount+
Prelims: Paramount+
Start Time: 12:00 PM ET
Start Time by Timezone
Times are estimated; Early Prelims ~2h, Prelims ~2h, Main Card ~2h. Subject to change.
GMT
London (Local)
Early
11:00 AM
Prelims
1:00 PM
Main
4:00 PM
ET
Eastern US/Canada
Early
7:00 AM
Prelims
9:00 AM
Main
12:00 PM
PT
Pacific US/Canada
Early
4:00 AM
Prelims
6:00 AM
Main
9:00 AM
CET
Central Europe
Early
12:00 PM
Prelims
2:00 PM
Main
5:00 PM
AEDT
Australia (East)
Early
10:00 PM
Prelims
12:00 AM (Sun)
Main
3:00 AM (Sun)

UFC Returns to London: Full Card Analytics & Predictions

Evloev vs. Murphy — The O2 Arena, London — March 21, 2026

Two unbeaten featherweights walk into the 20,000-seat O2 Arena — only one keeps the zero. Movsar Evloev (19-0), the relentless Dagestani wrestler who smothers opponents with takedown pressure, faces Lerone Murphy (17-0-1), Manchester's knockout artist fighting on home soil. The stakes are massive: the winner almost certainly gets next crack at the 145-pound title. Live on Paramount+ at 4:00 PM GMT / 12:00 PM ET.

We've broken down every bout on the Evloev vs Murphy card with AI-driven model probabilities vs market odds and value bet flags — from the featherweight headliner all the way through Dolidze vs Duncan, Page vs Patterson, and the full 14-fight prelim lineup.

🥊

What is UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy?

UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy takes place March 21, 2026, at The O2 in London — and this is the kind of matchup that keeps the featherweight division honest. Movsar Evloev (19-0) averages a staggering 4.67 takedowns per 15 minutes with 61% striking defense, making him one of the toughest puzzles at 145 pounds. Lerone Murphy (17-0-1) answers with 4.48 significant strikes per minute at 54% accuracy and 8 career KO/TKOs — raw power with precision behind it. The 14-fight card also features Dolidze vs. Duncan (middleweight), Page vs. Patterson (welterweight), and Jones vs. Sola (lightweight). Streams on Paramount+.

🤖

What are the predictions for Evloev vs. Murphy?

The numbers lean Evloev's way: our model gives him a 63% win probability, most likely by Decision (40%) — expect him to chain wrestle through five rounds, piling up control time that Murphy hasn't faced at this level. Murphy's best path? Early KO/TKO (22%) in rounds 1-2, before the wrestling accumulates and his gas tank gets tested.

Don't sleep on the co-main: Duncan at 66% over Dolidze is our strongest main-card pick, driven by superior volume and accuracy. Page at 60% over Patterson should thrive with his karate-based movement in front of the London crowd. Every fight on the card includes model probabilities vs market odds to flag value bets.

📺

How to watch UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy and what time does it start?

UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy airs Saturday, March 21, 2026, from The O2 in London. Main card kicks off at 12:00 PM ET / 4:00 PM GMT with prelims starting at 9:00 AM ET / 1:00 PM GMT. Catch the full card on Paramount+ (US) or TNT Sports (UK) — international viewers have access via UFC Fight Pass. Heads up for US fans: London timing means this is a rare afternoon card, so plan accordingly.

🎯

Main Card Matchup Insights

Main Event — Featherweight
Evloev vs Murphy
Model: Evloev 63% — grinding Decision (40%) is the most likely outcome
The gap: 4.67 vs 1.41 TD/15 — Evloev shoots 3.3x more than Murphy faces
Murphy's window: KO/TKO (22%) — he needs it early, rounds 1-2
Red flag: Murphy's 51% TDD has never faced a wrestler this relentless
Co-Main — Middleweight
Dolidze vs Duncan
Model: Duncan 66% — outworks Dolidze on volume and accuracy
Duncan: 4.60 SLpM, 58% accuracy, 79″ reach — long and sharp
Dolidze: 73% finish rate is scary, but 26% TDD is exploitable
Home crowd behind Duncan — London energy could be the X-factor
Main Card — Welterweight
Page vs Patterson
Model: Page 60% — makes you miss and makes you pay
MVP: 60% StrAcc, karate angles, absorbs just 1.68 SApM
Patterson's threat: 100% TDAcc (small sample) and 2.78 Sub/15
MVP fighting in London — expect the O2 to be electric for this one

📊Analysis Reliability Framework

Our analytical model considers UFC experience as one of several factors for optimal predictions. While we can analyze any fight, fighters with 5+ UFC bouts provide more comprehensive data for our statistical modeling. This doesn't diminish the quality of our analysis for newer fighters - it's simply one criterion we factor into our confidence assessments.

🔴

High Risk (**)

<3 UFC Bouts

Limited UFC data available. Analysis relies more heavily on external sources and pre-UFC performance patterns.

🟡

Moderate Risk (*)

3-4 UFC Bouts

Meaningful UFC sample size with good analytical foundation. Reliable insights with solid confidence levels.

🟢

Optimal Data

5+ UFC Bouts

Comprehensive statistical foundation enabling highest confidence analysis and predictive accuracy.

Note: All fights receive thorough analysis regardless of UFC experience levels. This framework simply helps calibrate confidence in our predictions.

UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy Fights, Analytics & Predictions

💡

We display the best available odds for each fighter to maximize value. Preference is given to BetOnline when available; otherwise, we select the highest-value line and show the sportsbook and implied probability (I.P %).

🏆 Main Event
🟢
Featherweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet

Lerone Murphy

"The Miracle"

17-0-1

Lerone Murphy
🟢
Middleweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
🔴
Featherweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
🟡
Michael Page

Michael Page

"Venom"

24-3-0

Welterweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
🔴
Light Heavyweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
🔴
Featherweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
🔴
Mason Jones

Mason Jones

"The Dragon"

17-2-0

Lightweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet

Axel Sola

11-0-1

Axel Sola
🔴
Nathaniel Wood

Nathaniel Wood

"The Prospect"

22-6-0

Featherweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
🔴
Heavyweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
🔴
Middleweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
🔴
Heavyweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
🔴
Lightweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
🔴
Women's Strawweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
🔴
Women's Bantamweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet

Model Probabilities vs Market Odds Summary

FightFighter AModel Prob AMarket Odds AImplied Prob AFighter BModel Prob BMarket Odds BImplied Prob BValue
Evloev vs MurphyEvloev63.0%Murphy37.0%+63.0% Evloev
Dolidze vs DuncanDolidze34.0%Duncan66.0%+66.0% Duncan
Page vs PattersonPage60.0%Patterson40.0%+60.0% Page

Event Discussion

No comments yet
Intelligence Feed

THE FUTURE OF
COMBAT SPORTS ANALYTICS

Join 10,000+ analysts. Get AI-verified predictions, real-time arbitrage alerts, and deep-dive technical breakdowns delivered to your inbox.

Join the revolution. No spam, just edge. Unsubscribe anytime.

Skip to main content
Use Tab to navigate through elements, Enter to activate buttons and links.