UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Almabayev Event Analytics & Predictions
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Almabayev — Predictions, Odds & Start Time
Full Fight Card Analytics & Breakdowns (Arena CDMX)
Advanced UFC Fight Night analysis for Moreno vs Almabayev featuring detailed fighter performance metrics, model probabilities vs market odds, expert UFC betting picks, how to watch and start time. Our MMA analytics platform delivers in‑depth technical breakdowns and predictions for a top flyweight matchup from Mexico City.
📊Analysis Reliability Framework
Our analytical model considers UFC experience as one of several factors for optimal predictions. While we can analyze any fight, fighters with 5+ UFC bouts provide more comprehensive data for our statistical modeling. This doesn't diminish the quality of our analysis for newer fighters - it's simply one criterion we factor into our confidence assessments.
High Risk (**)
<3 UFC Bouts
Limited UFC data available. Analysis relies more heavily on external sources and pre-UFC performance patterns.
Moderate Risk (*)
3-4 UFC Bouts
Meaningful UFC sample size with good analytical foundation. Reliable insights with solid confidence levels.
Optimal Data
5+ UFC Bouts
Comprehensive statistical foundation enabling highest confidence analysis and predictive accuracy.
Note: All fights receive thorough analysis regardless of UFC experience levels. This framework simply helps calibrate confidence in our predictions.
UFC Fight Night Fights, Analytics & Predictions
We display the best available odds for each fighter to maximize value. Preference is given to BetOnline when available; otherwise, we select the highest‑value line and show the sportsbook and implied probability (I.P %).
Model Probabilities vs Market Odds Summary
| Fight | Fighter A | Model Prob A | Market Odds A | Implied Prob A | Fighter B | Model Prob B | Market Odds B | Implied Prob B | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreno vs Almabayev🟢 | Brandon Moreno | 65.0% | N/A | — | Asu Almabayev | 35.0% | N/A | — | Moreno +65.0%Reach advantage and takedown defense in large cage |
| Chiasson vs Pérez🟢 | Macy Chiasson | 35.0% | N/A | — | Ailín Pérez | 65.0% | N/A | — | Pérez +65.0%Size advantage and long-range striking |
| Zellhuber vs Green🟢 | Daniel Zellhuber | 36.0% | N/A | — | King Green | 64.0% | N/A | — | Green +64.0% |
| Vera vs Martinez🟡 | Marlon Vera | 32.0% | N/A | — | David Martinez | 68.0% | N/A | — | Martinez +68.0% |
| Cháirez vs Bunes🟡 | Edgar Cháirez | 40.0% | N/A | — | Felipe Bunes | 60.0% | N/A | — | Bunes +60.0%Submission threat in scrambles and transitions |
| Quiñonez vs Moutinho🟡 | Cristian Quiñonez | 78.0% | N/A | — | Kris Moutinho | 22.0% | N/A | — | Quiñonez +78.0% |
Event Discussion
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