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UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh Event Analytics & Predictions

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh Poster - UFC Fight Analytics
Saturday, February 28, 2026
Mexico City, Mexico
Arena CDMX
completed13 Fights
Main Card: Paramount+
Prelims: Paramount+
Start Time: 6:00 PM ET
Start Time by Timezone
Times are estimated; Early Prelims ~2h, Prelims ~2h, Main Card ~2h. Subject to change.
ET (Local)
Mexico City (ET shown)
Early
4:00 PM
Prelims
5:00 PM
Main
6:00 PM
PT
Pacific US/Canada
Early
1:00 PM
Prelims
2:00 PM
Main
3:00 PM
BST
United Kingdom / Ireland
Early
9:00 PM
Prelims
10:00 PM
Main
11:00 PM
CET
Central Europe
Early
10:00 PM
Prelims
11:00 PM
Main
12:00 AM (Sun)
ET
Eastern US/Canada
Early
4:00 PM
Prelims
5:00 PM
Main
6:00 PM
🥊

What is UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh?

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh is a mixed martial arts event scheduled for February 28, 2026, at Arena CDMX in Mexico City, Mexico. The five-round flyweight main event features former UFC flyweight champion Brandon "The Assassin Baby" Moreno (23-9-2) against unbeaten contender Lone'er Kavanagh (23-3). Moreno brings championship experience with polished technical striking at 4.8 significant strikes landed per minute, 52% striking accuracy, and 75% takedown defense. Kavanagh is a well-rounded threat averaging 1.8 takedowns per 15 minutes with a composite grappling score of 82. The card streams exclusively on Paramount+ with the main card beginning at 6:00 PM ET.

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What are the predictions for Moreno vs. Kavanagh?

MMA Analytics uses a five-model machine learning ensemble (LightGBM, XGBoost, CatBoost, Logistic Regression, and a Siamese Neural Network) to generate fight predictions. The model analyzes 45 SHAP-selected features and achieves 67.6% accuracy on held-out test data. For each fight on the UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh card, the system produces win probabilities, method-of-victory likelihoods, and confidence metrics, comparing model probabilities against market odds to identify potential value bets. All predictions are generated from historical fighter performance data, matchup dynamics, and physical attributes without human editorial bias.

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How to watch UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh and what time does it start?

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh takes place on Saturday, February 28, 2026. The main card begins at 6:00 PM ET / 3:00 PM PT / 11:00 PM GMT / 10:00 AM AEDT (Sunday). The entire event, including the prelims, streams live on Paramount+ from Arena CDMX in Mexico City, Mexico. A Paramount+ subscription is required to watch the event live, with replay available on demand after the broadcast concludes.

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh — Predictions, Odds & Start Time

Full Fight Card Analytics & Breakdowns (Arena CDMX)

Advanced UFC Fight Night analysis for Moreno vs Kavanagh featuring detailed fighter performance metrics, model probabilities vs market odds, expert UFC betting picks, how to watch and start time. Our MMA analytics platform delivers in‑depth technical breakdowns and predictions for a top flyweight matchup from Mexico City.

📊Analysis Reliability Framework

Our analytical model considers UFC experience as one of several factors for optimal predictions. While we can analyze any fight, fighters with 5+ UFC bouts provide more comprehensive data for our statistical modeling. This doesn't diminish the quality of our analysis for newer fighters - it's simply one criterion we factor into our confidence assessments.

🔴

High Risk (**)

<3 UFC Bouts

Limited UFC data available. Analysis relies more heavily on external sources and pre-UFC performance patterns.

🟡

Moderate Risk (*)

3-4 UFC Bouts

Meaningful UFC sample size with good analytical foundation. Reliable insights with solid confidence levels.

🟢

Optimal Data

5+ UFC Bouts

Comprehensive statistical foundation enabling highest confidence analysis and predictive accuracy.

Note: All fights receive thorough analysis regardless of UFC experience levels. This framework simply helps calibrate confidence in our predictions.

UFC Fight Night Fights, Analytics & Predictions

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We display the best available odds for each fighter to maximize value. Preference is given to BetOnline when available; otherwise, we select the highest‑value line and show the sportsbook and implied probability (I.P %).

🏆 Main Event
🟢
Brandon Moreno

Brandon Moreno

"The Assassin Baby"

23-9-2

Flyweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
Lone'er Kavanagh
⭐ Co-Main Event
🟢
Macy Chiasson

Macy Chiasson

"The Hurricane"

10-5-0

Women's Bantamweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
Ailín Pérez
🟢
Daniel Zellhuber

Daniel Zellhuber

"Golden Boy"

15-3-0

Lightweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
King Green

King Green

33-17-1

🟡
Marlon Vera

Marlon Vera

"Chito"

23-11-1

Bantamweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
David Martinez

David Martinez

"The Black Spartan"

13-1-0

🟡
Edgar Cháirez
Flyweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
Felipe Bunes
🔴
Imanol Rodríguez
Flyweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
Kevin Borjas
🔴
José Medina
Middleweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
Ryan Gandra
🔴
Wes Schultz
Middleweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
Damian Pinas
🔴
Santiago Luna
Bantamweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
Angel Pacheco
🟡
Cristian Quiñonez

Cristian Quiñonez

"Problema"

18-5-0

Bantamweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
Kris Moutinho
🔴
Ernesta Kareckaite

Ernesta Kareckaite

"Heavy-Handed"

6-1-1

Women's Flyweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
Sofia Montenegro
🔴
D. Silva de Andrade
Featherweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
Javier Reyes
🔴
Erik Silva
Featherweight
VS
Market Odds
...vs...
No picks yet
Felipe Marshall

Model Probabilities vs Market Odds Summary

FightFighter AModel Prob AMarket Odds AImplied Prob AFighter BModel Prob BMarket Odds BImplied Prob BValue
Moreno vs Kavanagh🟢Brandon Moreno65.0%N/A—Lone'er Kavanagh35.0%N/A—
Moreno +65.0%Reach advantage and takedown defense in large cage
Chiasson vs Pérez🟢Macy Chiasson35.0%N/A—Ailín Pérez65.0%N/A—
Pérez +65.0%Takedown pressure and superior defense
Zellhuber vs Green🟢Daniel Zellhuber36.0%N/A—King Green64.0%N/A—
Green +64.0%Length + altitude advantage + power finish equity
Vera vs Martinez🟡Marlon Vera32.0%N/A—David Martinez68.0%N/A—
Martinez +68.0%Reach, experience, and submission threat pathways
Cháirez vs Bunes🟡Edgar Cháirez40.0%N/A—Felipe Bunes60.0%N/A—
Bunes +60.0%Submission threat in scrambles and transitions
Quiñonez vs Moutinho🟡Cristian Quiñonez78.0%N/A—Kris Moutinho22.0%N/A—
Quiñonez +78.0%Superior defense, precision striking, and altitude advantage

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