UFC Fight Night: Royval vs Kape – Event Analytics & Predictions
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs Kape – Predictions, Odds & Start Time
Full Fight Card Analytics & Breakdowns (UFC Apex)
Advanced UFC Fight Night analysis for Royval vs Kape spotlights two top-five flyweights with contrasting pathways to title contention. Brandon Royval's frantic scrambling, 1.40 submissions per 15 minutes and volume striking collide with Manel Kape's clinical 53% accuracy and elite defensive metrics. Our modeling surfaces where tempo, cardio pacing and late-round leverage create market inefficiencies, pairing scenario-based win probabilities with implied odds so you can see exactly where value opens on the moneyline, round props and live angles.
The co-main between Amanda Lemos and Gillian Robertson contrasts explosive stand-up vs. suffocating grappling, while prospect-heavy prelims—Tereza Bledá vs. Jamey-Lyn Horth, the heavyweight showdowns featuring Allen Frye, Guilherme Pat, Kennedy Nzechukwu and Marcus "Buchecha" Almeida—stack the card with developmental tape. This dashboard keeps the same data-backed voice you trust from pay-per-view builds, combining pace metrics, strength-of-schedule adjustments, finishing risk curves and situational trendlines for every matchup.
📊Analysis Reliability Framework
Our analytical model considers tenure, strength of schedule and finishing sustainability as core inputs. Bouts where both athletes own 5+ UFC appearances give us the broadest data footprint for predictive accuracy. That's why Royval, Kape, Lemos, Robertson, Giga Chikadze and Kennedy Nzechukwu anchor the projections—they supply robust sample sizes across striking, grappling and cardio indicators.
The card still features developing talent where we temper confidence. Heavyweights Allen Frye, Guilherme Pat, Sean Sharaf and Marcus "Buchecha" Almeida plus flyweight prospects Tereza Bledá and Jamey-Lyn Horth are fast risers with limited UFC reps. We keep those fights on the slate, but flag them so you can scale exposure or wait for live confirmation before committing bankroll.
High Risk (**)
<3 UFC bouts
Newcomers like Allen Frye, Guilherme Pat, Sean Sharaf and Marcus Almeida headline this tier. Their regional tape is strong, but limited UFC data means wider volatility bands and a preference for prop nibbling or live-entry hedges.
Moderate Risk (*)
3-4 UFC bouts
Tereza Bledá, Jamey-Lyn Horth, Melsik Baghdasaryan and Melissa Croden supply enough UFC rounds for directional confidence, though opponent quality variance keeps our confidence bands slightly wider than the veteran tier.
Optimal Data
5+ UFC bouts
Brandon Royval, Manel Kape, Amanda Lemos, Gillian Robertson, Giga Chikadze and Kennedy Nzechukwu deliver deep sample sizes, letting our model lean into situational trends like late-fight output, submission chains and defensive durability.
Note: We still surface projections for every matchup. Use the risk icons as a bankroll throttle—go heavier on the 🟢 data-rich fights, stay nimble on 🟡 bouts, and treat 🔴 prospects cautiously when chasing pre-fight or live edges.
UFC Fight Night Fights, Analytics & Predictions
We display the best available odds for each fighter to maximize value. Preference is given to BetOnline when available; otherwise, we select the highest‑value line and show the sportsbook and implied probability (I.P %).
Model Probabilities vs Market Odds Summary
| Fight | Fighter A | Model Prob A | Market Odds A | Implied Prob A | Fighter B | Model Prob B | Market Odds B | Implied Prob B | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royval vs Kape | Brandon Royval | 37.0% | N/A | — | Manel Kape | 63.0% | N/A | — | Kape +63.0% |
| Lemos vs Robertson | Amanda Lemos | 62.0% | N/A | — | Gillian Robertson | 38.0% | N/A | — | Lemos +62.0% |
| Bledá vs Horth | Tereza Bledá | 45.0% | N/A | — | Jamey-Lyn Horth | 55.0% | N/A | — | Horth +55.0% |
| Brito vs Baghdasaryan | Joanderson Brito | 66.0% | N/A | — | Melsik Baghdasaryan | 34.0% | N/A | — | Brito +66.0% |
| Santos vs Croden | Luana Santos | 56.0% | N/A | — | Melissa Croden | 44.0% | N/A | — | Santos +56.0% |
| Charrière vs Costa | Morgan Charrière | 38.0% | N/A | — | Melquizael Costa | 62.0% | N/A | — | Costa +62.0% |
Event Discussion
Event Highlights
Event Preview
Flyweight Headliner at UFC Apex
Brandon Royval takes on Manel Kape in a high‑stakes flyweight main event featuring explosive striking and dangerous grappling threats.
Contenders on the Rise
Strawweight contenders Amanda Lemos and Gillian Robertson add divisional intrigue, while featherweights Giga Chikadze and Joanderson Brito promise fireworks.
Event Analytics Overview
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