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UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs Gamrot - Event Fights, Analytics & Predictions

UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs Gamrot Poster - UFC Analytics
Start Time by Timezone
Times are estimated; Early Prelims ~2h, Prelims ~2h, Main Card ~2h. Subject to change.
ET
Eastern US/Canada
Early
4:00 AM
Prelims
6:00 AM
Main
8:00 AM
PT
Pacific US/Canada
Early
1:00 AM
Prelims
3:00 AM
Main
5:00 AM
BST
United Kingdom / Ireland
Early
9:00 AM
Prelims
11:00 AM
Main
1:00 PM
CET
Central Europe
Early
10:00 AM
Prelims
12:00 PM
Main
2:00 PM
Local
Local (TBD)
Early
1:00 PM
Prelims
3:00 PM
Main
5:00 PM
Saturday, October 11, 2025
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Farmasi Arena
completed16 Fights
Main Card: ESPN+
Prelims: ESPN+
Start Time: TBD

UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs Gamrot Predictions, Odds & Start Time

Full Fight Card Analytics & Breakdowns (Lightweight Headliner)

Advanced UFC Fight Night analysis for Oliveira vs Gamrot featuring detailed fighter performance metrics, model probabilities vs market odds, expert UFC betting picks, how to watch and start time. Our MMA analytics platform delivers in‑depth technical breakdowns, statistical analysis and predictions for the lightweight main event and the full card including Luque vs Ponzinibbio and Walker vs Usman.

We provide super‑detailed fight analyses using proprietary MMA data and AI‑powered models to maximize decision‑making value. Access fight‑by‑fight value betting analysis model probabilities vs market odds, best value bets, projected odds and actionable fight picks. Stay updated with UFC Fight Night news on fighters and camps, training and preparation notes, weigh‑ins, injuries and market movement — aligned to high‑intent keywords like predictions, odds, full fight card, value bets and model edges.

📊Analysis Reliability Framework

Our analytical model considers UFC experience as one of several factors for optimal predictions. While we can analyze any fight, fighters with 5+ UFC bouts provide more comprehensive data for our statistical modeling. This doesn't diminish the quality of our analysis for newer fighters - it's simply one criterion we factor into our confidence assessments.

🔴

High Risk (**)

<3 UFC Bouts

Limited UFC data available. Analysis relies more heavily on external sources and pre-UFC performance patterns.

🟡

Moderate Risk (*)

3-4 UFC Bouts

Meaningful UFC sample size with good analytical foundation. Reliable insights with solid confidence levels.

🟢

Optimal Data

5+ UFC Bouts

Comprehensive statistical foundation enabling highest confidence analysis and predictive accuracy.

Note: All fights receive thorough analysis regardless of UFC experience levels. This framework simply helps calibrate confidence in our predictions.

UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs Gamrot – Fights, Analytics & Predictions

💡

We display the best available odds for each fighter to maximize value. Preference is given to BetOnline when available; otherwise, we select the highest‑value line and show the sportsbook and implied probability (I.P %).

Main Event
🟢
Charles Oliveira
Performance of the Night

Charles Oliveira

"Do Bronx"

36-11-0

Lightweight
VS
Odds:
Winner: Charles Oliveira
Submission
R2 • 2:48
Performance of the Night
No picks yet
Mateusz Gamrot

Mateusz Gamrot

"Gamer"

25-4-0

Co-Main Event
🟢
Deiveson Figueiredo

Deiveson Figueiredo

"Deus da Guerra"

25-5-1

Bantamweight
VS
Odds:
Winner: Deiveson Figueiredo
Decision - Split
R3 • 5:00
No picks yet
Montel Jackson

Montel Jackson

"Quik"

15-3-0

🟢
Vicente Luque

Vicente Luque

"The Silent Assassin"

23-12-1

Welterweight
VS
Odds:
Winner: Joel Alvarez
Decision - Unanimous
R3 • 5:00
No picks yet
Joel Alvarez

Joel Alvarez

"El Fenómeno"

23-3-0

🔴
Heavyweight
VS
Odds:
Winner: Mario Pinto
KO/TKO
R2 • 4:10
No picks yet
🔴
Featherweight
VS
Odds:
Winner: Kaan Ofli
Submission
R1 • 3:02
No picks yet
Kaan Ofli

Kaan Ofli

12-4-1

🔴
Lightweight
VS
Odds:
Winner: Michael Aswell
KO/TKO
R1 • 1:42
No picks yet
🟡
Vitor Petrino
Performance of the Night

Vitor Petrino

"Icão"

13-2-0

Heavyweight
VS
Odds:
Winner: Vitor Petrino
KO/TKO
R3 • 0:26
Performance of the Night
No picks yet
Thomas Petersen

Thomas Petersen

"The Train"

10-4-0

🔴
Irina Alekseeva

Irina Alekseeva

"Russian Ronda"

5-4-0

Women's Bantamweight
VS
Odds:
Winner: Beatriz Mesquita
Submission
R2 • 2:14
Performance of the Night
No picks yet
Beatriz Mesquita
Performance of the Night
🟡
Flyweight
VS
Odds:
Winner: Jafel Filho
Submission
R1 • 4:42
No picks yet
Clayton Carpenter

Clayton Carpenter

"Clutch"

8-2-0

🔴
Flyweight
VS
Odds:
Winner: Lucas Rocha
Decision - Unanimous
R3 • 5:00
No picks yet
Stewart Nicoll

Stewart Nicoll

"The Freak"

8-2-0

🟡
Julia Polastri
Performance of the Night

Julia Polastri

"Psycho"

14-5-0

Women's Strawweight
VS
Odds:
Winner: Julia Polastri
KO/TKO
R3 • 2:56
Performance of the Night
No picks yet
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

"The Polish Princess"

16-10-0

🔴
Bantamweight
VS
Odds:
Winner: Luan Lacerda
TBD
R0 • TBD
No picks yet
CANCELLED
🟢
Charles Oliveira

Charles Oliveira

"Do Bronx"

35-11-0

Lightweight
CANCELLED
Odds:
No picks yet
Rafael Fiziev

Rafael Fiziev

"Ataman"

13-4-0

CANCELLED
🟡
Heavyweight
CANCELLED
Odds:
No picks yet
Mohammed Usman

Mohammed Usman

"The Motor"

11-4-0

CANCELLED
🟢
Welterweight
CANCELLED
Odds:
No picks yet
CANCELLED
🟢
Vicente Luque

Vicente Luque

"The Silent Assassin"

23-11-1

Welterweight
CANCELLED
Odds:
No picks yet
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Santiago Ponzinibbio

"Argentine Dagger"

30-9-0

Model Probabilities vs Market Odds Summary

FightFighter AModel Prob AMarket Odds AImplied Prob AFighter BModel Prob BMarket Odds BImplied Prob BValue
Charles vs Mateusz🟢Charles Oliveira42.0%Mateusz Gamrot58.0%No odds yet
Deiveson vs Montel🟢Deiveson Figueiredo30.0%Montel Jackson70.0%No odds yet
Vicente vs Joel🟢Vicente Luque55.0%Joel Alvarez45.0%No odds yet
Vitor vs Thomas🟡Vitor Petrino39.0%Thomas Petersen61.0%No odds yet
Jafel vs Clayton🟡Jafel Filho42.0%Clayton Carpenter58.0%No odds yet
Julia vs Karolina🟡Julia Polastri65.0%Karolina Kowalkiewicz35.0%No odds yet
High Value
15%+ Edge
Medium Value
10-15% Edge
Low Value
5-10% Edge
No Value
Under 5% Edge

Accuracy of our Picks

Note: These metrics are reference-only. We use flat staking of 1.00 unit per pick regardless of model confidence or probability. Historical units reflect this constant stake size.
17%
Prediction Accuracy (Overall)
1
Correct Predictions (Overall)
6
Total Setup Fights
-4.82u
Betting Units (Overall)
0%
Prediction Accuracy (Optimal)
0
Correct Predictions (Optimal)
4
Optimal Setup Fights
-4.00u
Betting Units (Optimal)
Correct Predictions (Optimal)
None
Incorrect Predictions (Optimal)
Charles Oliveira vs Mateusz Gamrot
Pick: Mateusz Gamrot | -1.00u
Result: Submission
Deiveson Figueiredo vs Montel Jackson
Pick: Montel Jackson | -1.00u
Result: Decision - Split
Vicente Luque vs Joel Alvarez
Pick: Vicente Luque | -1.00u
Result: Decision - Unanimous
Vitor Petrino vs Thomas Petersen
Pick: Thomas Petersen | -1.00u
Result: KO/TKO
Moderate Risk Picks Summary
50%
Prediction Accuracy (Moderate)
1
Correct Predictions (Moderate)
2
Moderate Setup Fights
-0.82u
Betting Units (Moderate)
Total Units (Moderate): -0.82u
Jafel Filho vs Clayton Carpenter
Pick: Clayton Carpenter | -1.00u
Julia Polastri vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Pick: Julia Polastri (-550) | +0.18u

Event Discussion

Event Highlights

Lightweight Main Event Spotlight

Charles Oliveira meets wrestling-heavy contender Mateusz Gamrot in a high‑octane lightweight headliner. Oliveira brings world‑class submission threats and pressure boxing, while Gamrot offers elite wrestling, chain‑takedowns and top control.

Veterans and Finishers on the Card

Fan‑favorite bouts include Vicente Luque vs Santiago Ponzinibbio and Deiveson Figueiredo vs Montel Jackson, plus heavyweight power with Jhonata Diniz vs Mario Pinto. Additional welterweight action features Gabriel Bonfim vs Randy Brown, and flyweight prospects Lucas Rocha vs Stewart Nicoll.

Notable Storylines

Can Oliveira's submission game neutralize Fiziev's striking? Will Luque's durability and pressure overcome Ponzinibbio's boxing? Watch emerging prospects at flyweight and heavyweight for breakout performances. The card also features rising welterweight Gabriel Bonfim and lightweight prospect Lucas Almeida in competitive matchups.

Event Analytics Overview

13
Total Fights
6
Main Card Fights
7
Divisions
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