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UFC Fight Night: Hill vs Rountree - Complete MMA Analytics

UFC Fight Night: Hill vs Rountree Poster - UFC Analytics Platform
Saturday, June 21, 2025
Baku, Azerbaijan
Baku Crystal Hall
Event Completed12 Fights
Main Card: ESPN+
Prelims: ESPN/ESPN+
Start Time: 12:00 PM ET

UFC Fight Night Baku: Hill vs Rountree Jr. Event Analytics

UFC Fight Night: Hill vs Rountree Analysis & Prediction

UFC Fight Night Baku: Hill vs Rountree Jr. Analytics & Fight Breakdowns

Comprehensive UFC fight analysis for Hill vs Rountree fight card featuring detailed statistics, AI-powered predictions, and professional MMA handicapping insights. Our UFC event analytics platform provides technical breakdowns, performance metrics, and betting analysis for this championship bout.

📊Analysis Reliability Framework

Our analytical model considers UFC experience as one of several factors for optimal predictions. While we can analyze any fight, fighters with 5+ UFC bouts provide more comprehensive data for our statistical modeling. This doesn't diminish the quality of our analysis for newer fighters - it's simply one criterion we factor into our confidence assessments.

🔴

High Risk (**)

<3 UFC Bouts

Limited UFC data available. Analysis relies more heavily on external sources and pre-UFC performance patterns.

🟡

Moderate Risk (*)

3-4 UFC Bouts

Meaningful UFC sample size with good analytical foundation. Reliable insights with solid confidence levels.

🟢

Optimal Data

5+ UFC Bouts

Comprehensive statistical foundation enabling highest confidence analysis and predictive accuracy.

Note: All fights receive thorough analysis regardless of UFC experience levels. This framework simply helps calibrate confidence in our predictions.

Main EventLight Heavyweight🟢
Khalil Rountree Jr. wins
Jamahal Hill

Jamahal Hill

"Sweet Dreams"

12-4-0

VS
+136 / -156
Decision - Unanimous
Scorecards: 49-46, 50-45, 50-45
R5 5:00
Khalil Rountree Jr.

Khalil Rountree Jr.

"The War Horse"

14-6-0

Co-Main EventLightweight🟢
Rafael Fiziev wins
Rafael Fiziev

Rafael Fiziev

"Ataman"

13-4-0

VS
-130 / +110
Decision - Unanimous
Scorecards: 30-27, 30-27, 29-28
R3 5:00
Heavyweight🔴
Curtis Blaydes wins
Curtis Blaydes

Curtis Blaydes

"Razor"

19-5-0

VS
-265 / +225
Decision - Split
Scorecards: 29-28, 28-29, 29-28
R3 5:00
Welterweight🟡
Nazim Sadykhov winsFight of the NightPerformance of the Night
VS
-375 / +310
TKO - Strikes
TKO via strikes
R2 3:47
Lightweight🔴
Muhammad Naimov wins
VS
-215 / +185
Decision - Unanimous
Scorecards: 30-27, 30-27, 29-28
R3 5:00
Lightweight🔴
Myktybek Orolbai wins
VS
-170 / +145
Submission - Kimura
Kimura submission
R1 4:12
Welterweight🟢
Jun Yong Park wins
Ismail Naurdiev

Ismail Naurdiev

"The Austrian Wonderboy"

24-8-0

VS
+185 / -220
Decision - Unanimous
Scorecards: 30-27, 30-27, 29-28
R3 5:00
Jun Yong Park

Jun Yong Park

"The Iron Turtle"

19-6-0

Heavyweight🔴
Mohammed Usman wins
Mohammed Usman

Mohammed Usman

"Motor"

11-4-0

VS
+174 / -204
Decision - Unanimous
Scorecards: 30-27, 30-27, 29-28
R3 5:00
Women's Strawweight🔴
Klaudia Sygula wins
VS
-221 / +186
Decision - Unanimous
Scorecards: 30-27, 30-27, 29-28
R3 5:00
Women's Strawweight🔴
Darya Zheleznyakova wins
VS
+211 / -251
Decision - Unanimous
Scorecards: 30-27, 30-27, 29-28
R3 5:00
Bantamweight🔴
Tagir Ulanbekov wins
VS
-133 / +240
Decision - Unanimous
Scorecards: 30-27, 30-27, 29-28
R3 5:00
Welterweight🔴
Seokhyeon Ko wins
VS
+275 / -325
Decision - Unanimous
Scorecards: 30-27, 30-27, 29-28
R3 5:00
Oban Elliott

Oban Elliott

"The Welsh Gangster"

12-3-0

Event Analytics Summary

Model Probabilities vs Market Odds Summary

Accuracy of our Picks

Note: These metrics are reference-only. We use flat staking of 1.00 unit per pick regardless of model confidence or probability. Historical units reflect this constant stake size.

Overall Summary (Optimal + Moderate)

50%
Prediction Accuracy (Overall)
2
Correct Predictions (Overall)
4
Total Setup Fights
-1.28
Betting Units (Overall)
33%
Prediction Accuracy (Optimal)
1
Correct Predictions (Optimal)
3
Optimal Setup Fights
-1.55
Betting Units (Optimal)

Correct Predictions (Optimal)

Ismail Naurdiev vs Jun Yong Park
Pick: Jun Yong Park (-220) | +0.45u
Result: Decision - Unanimous

Incorrect Predictions (Optimal)

Jamahal Hill vs Khalil Rountree Jr.
Pick: Jamahal Hill (+136) | -1.00u
Result: Decision - Unanimous
Rafael Fiziev vs Ignacio Bahamondes
Pick: Ignacio Bahamondes (+110) | -1.00u
Result: Decision - Unanimous

Moderate Risk Picks Summary

100%
Prediction Accuracy (Moderate)
1
Correct Predictions (Moderate)
1
Moderate Setup Fights
+0.27
Betting Units (Moderate)
Nazim Sadykhov vs Nikolas Motta
Pick: Nazim Sadykhov (-375) | +0.27u

Event Analytics Summary

12
Total Fights
2
Main Card Bouts
6
Weight Classes

Event Highlights

Main Event Showcase

In the highly anticipated main event, Khalil Rountree Jr. secured a dominant unanimous decision victory over former light heavyweight champion Jamahal Hill. Rountree Jr. showcased a masterclass in tactical striking, landing 102 significant strikes out of 181 attempts (56% accuracy) compared to Hill's 69 of 172 (40%). He effectively utilized leg kicks, visibly impacting Hill's mobility, and even scored a knockdown in the third round.

Performance Bonus

In a rare move, the "Fight of the Night" and "Performance of the Night" bonuses were both awarded to a single bout: the welterweight clash between Nazim Sadykhov and Nikolas Motta. Both fighters received an impressive $100,000 each for their thrilling encounter, which ended in a TKO victory for Sadykhov in the second round.

Notable Moments & Event Insights

UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. delivered a night of mixed martial arts action from Baku, Azerbaijan. Beyond the main event showcase, Rafael Fiziev's Return in the co-main event saw him snap a three-fight losing streak with a unanimous decision win over Ignacio Bahamondes, demonstrating his striking prowess with 62 significant strikes and four takedowns. Dominant Grappling was on display as Myktybek Orolbai secured one of the night's two finishes with a first-round Kimura submission over Tofiq Musayev, while Seokhyeon Ko controlled Oban Elliott for over 10 minutes en route to a unanimous decision victory. The card featured numerous close decisions, highlighting the competitive nature of many matchups throughout the evening.

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