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UFC Fight Night: Usman vs Buckley - AI Fight Analysis & Predictions

UFC Fight Night: Usman vs Buckley Poster - MMA Analytics
Saturday, June 14, 2025
Atlanta, Georgia
State Farm Arena
Event Completed13 Fights
Main Card: ESPN+
Prelims: ESPN/ESPN+
Start Time: 7:00 PM ET

UFC Fight Night: Usman vs Buckley Event Analysis & Predictions

UFC Fight Night: Usman vs Buckley Analysis & Prediction

UFC Fight Night: Usman vs Buckley Analytics & Fight Breakdowns

Our comprehensive UFC fight analysis for Usman vs Buckley features detailed fighter statistics, AI-powered predictions, and expert MMA handicapping insights. This complete UFC event breakdown includes technical comparisons, performance data, and betting analysis for all fights on the card.

📊Analysis Reliability Framework

Our analytical model considers UFC experience as one of several factors for optimal predictions. While we can analyze any fight, fighters with 5+ UFC bouts provide more comprehensive data for our statistical modeling. This doesn't diminish the quality of our analysis for newer fighters - it's simply one criterion we factor into our confidence assessments.

🔴

High Risk (**)

<3 UFC Bouts

Limited UFC data available. Analysis relies more heavily on external sources and pre-UFC performance patterns.

🟡

Moderate Risk (*)

3-4 UFC Bouts

Meaningful UFC sample size with good analytical foundation. Reliable insights with solid confidence levels.

🟢

Optimal Data

5+ UFC Bouts

Comprehensive statistical foundation enabling highest confidence analysis and predictive accuracy.

Note: All fights receive thorough analysis regardless of UFC experience levels. This framework simply helps calibrate confidence in our predictions.

Main EventWelterweight🟢
Kamaru Usman winsFight of the Night
Kamaru Usman

Kamaru Usman

"The Nigerian Nightmare"

21-4-0

VS
+225 / -265
Decision - Unanimous
Scorecards: 49-46, 49-46, 48-47
R5 5:00
Joaquin Buckley

Joaquin Buckley

"New Mansa"

21-7-0

Co-Main EventWomen's Flyweight🟢
Rose Namajunas wins
Rose Namajunas

Rose Namajunas

"Thug Rose"

14-7-0

VS
-245 / +210
Decision - Unanimous
Scorecards: 30-27, 30-27, 29-28
R3 5:00
Miranda Maverick

Miranda Maverick

"Fear The"

15-6-0

Middleweight🟢
Edmen Shahbazyan wins
Edmen Shahbazyan

Edmen Shahbazyan

"The Golden Boy"

15-5-0

VS
-185 / +160
Decision - Unanimous
Scorecards: 30-27, 30-27, 29-28
R3 5:00
Bantamweight🟢
Raoni Barcelos wins
Cody Garbrandt

Cody Garbrandt

"No Love"

14-7-0

VS
+141 / -161
Decision - Unanimous
Scorecards: 29-28, 29-28, 29-28
R3 5:00
Middleweight🟡
Mansur Abdul-Malik wins
VS
+500 / -700
Technical Decision - Unanimous
Scorecards: 30-27, 29-28, 29-28
R3 5:00
Light Heavyweight🟡
Alonzo Menifield wins
Alonzo Menifield

Alonzo Menifield

"Atomic"

17-5-1

VS
+400 / -550
Decision - Unanimous
Scorecards: 29-28, 29-28, 29-28
R3 5:00
Oumar Sy

Oumar Sy

11-1-0

Light Heavyweight🔴
No Contest
Paul Craig

Paul Craig

"Bearjew"

17-9-2

VS
+285 / -350
No Contest
Illegal upkick by Bellato
R1 4:58
Welterweight🟢
Michael Chiesa wins
Michael Chiesa

Michael Chiesa

"Maverick"

21-7-0

VS
-350 / +285
Decision - Unanimous
Scorecards: 30-27, 30-27, 29-28
R3 5:00
Court McGee

Court McGee

"The Crusher"

21-14-0

Bantamweight🔴
Malcolm Wellmaker winsPerformance of the Night
VS
+775 / -1300
KO - Right Hook
Knockout via right hook
R1 2:37
Flyweight🔴
Jose Ochoa wins
VS
+150 / -175
KO - Uppercut
Knockout via uppercut
R2 0:11
Bantamweight🔴
Ricky Simon wins
VS
-525 / +400
Decision - Unanimous
Scorecards: 30-27, 30-27, 29-28
R3 5:00
Welterweight🟢
Phill Rowe wins
VS
+115 / -135
TKO - Strikes
TKO via strikes
R3 4:03
Women's Flyweight🟡
Jamey-Lyn Horth wins
VS
+330 / -400
Decision - Unanimous
Scorecards: 30-27, 30-27, 30-27
R3 5:00

Model Probabilities vs Market Odds Summary

Accuracy of our Picks

Note: These metrics are reference-only. We use flat staking of 1.00 unit per pick regardless of model confidence or probability. Historical units reflect this constant stake size.

Overall Summary (Optimal + Moderate)

67%
Prediction Accuracy (Overall)
6
Correct Predictions (Overall)
9
Total Setup Fights
-0.75
Betting Units (Overall)
67%
Prediction Accuracy (Optimal)
4
Correct Predictions (Optimal)
6
Optimal Setup Fights
-0.14
Betting Units (Optimal)

Correct Predictions (Optimal)

Rose Namajunas vs Miranda Maverick
Pick: Rose Namajunas (-245) | +0.41u
Result: Decision - Unanimous
Edmen Shahbazyan vs Andre Petroski
Pick: Edmen Shahbazyan (-185) | +0.54u
Result: Decision - Unanimous
Cody Garbrandt vs Raoni Barcelos
Pick: Raoni Barcelos (-161) | +0.62u
Result: Decision - Unanimous
Michael Chiesa vs Court McGee
Pick: Michael Chiesa (-350) | +0.29u
Result: Decision - Unanimous

Incorrect Predictions (Optimal)

Kamaru Usman vs Joaquin Buckley
Pick: Joaquin Buckley (-265) | -1.00u
Result: Decision - Unanimous
Phill Rowe vs Ange Loosa
Pick: Ange Loosa (-135) | -1.00u
Result: TKO - Strikes

Moderate Risk Picks Summary

67%
Prediction Accuracy (Moderate)
2
Correct Predictions (Moderate)
3
Moderate Setup Fights
-0.61
Betting Units (Moderate)
Cody Brundage vs Mansur Abdul-Malik
Pick: Mansur Abdul-Malik (-700) | +0.14u
Alonzo Menifield vs Oumar Sy
Pick: Oumar Sy | -1.00u
Vanessa Demepoulos vs Jamey-Lyn Horth
Pick: Jamey-Lyn Horth (-400) | +0.25u

Event Analytics Summary

13
Total Fights
2
Main Card Bouts
6
Weight Classes

Event Highlights

Main Event Showcase

Former welterweight champion Kamaru Usman made a triumphant return against rising contender Joaquin Buckley in an electrifying main event that earned Fight of the Night honors, showcasing elite-level striking and grappling throughout all five rounds.

Performance Bonus

Malcolm Wellmaker delivered a spectacular performance, earning Performance of the Night with a devastating knockout victory that sent shockwaves through the bantamweight division.

Notable Moments & Event Insights

From decisive knockouts to strategic battles going the distance, this event showcased the full spectrum of MMA. A particularly rare outcome was the No Contest in the Paul Craig vs. Rodolfo Bellato light heavyweight bout, which was stopped due to an illegal upkick. This, combined with multiple finishes and hard-fought decisions, made for a memorable and unpredictable night of fights.

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