Roman Kopylov vs Marco Tulio
Men's Middleweight Bout • UFC 328
Saturday, May 9, 2026
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Roman Kopylov
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Marco Tulio
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Roman Kopylov
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-15 | Gregory Rodrigues | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-07-19 | Paulo Costa | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-01-11 | Chris Curtis | W | TKO - Head Kick (R3, 4:59) |
| 2024-06-01 | César Almeida | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-17 | Anthony Hernandez | L | Submission - RNC (R2, 3:23) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Marco Tulio
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | Christian Leroy Duncan | L | TKO - Spinning Backfist & Punches (R2, 3:28) |
| 2025-04-12 | Tresean Gore | W | TKO - Straight Right (R2, 3:16) |
| 2025-01-11 | Ihor Potieria | W | TKO - Right Hook to Ground Strikes (R1, 3:04) |
| 2024-08-27 | Matthieu Duclos | W | TKO - Spinning Back Kick & Punches (R2, 2:38) |
| 2024-01-27 | Cemey dos Santos | W | TKO - Straight Right & Follow Up Punches (R2, 2:20) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (68 vs 72) and Grappling Composite (42 vs 28). Kopylov's grappling edge from UFC experience offsets Tulio's raw striking output advantage.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate, and finish rate. Kopylov's 10:22 average fight duration vs Tulio's 5:54 indicates he's conditioned for longer bouts and sustained pressure.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical and Cardio scores. Kopylov's overall edge reflects his UFC-tested durability and technical diversity, while Tulio's rating is weighted toward explosive finishing power.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Roman Kopylov Key Advantages
Kopylov's 11 UFC fights vs Tulio's 3 represents a vast experience gap that matters most in close exchanges. He's been tested by ranked middleweights including Paulo Costa and Anthony Hernandez, and has never been stopped by strikes in his career—a remarkable stat given how hard he's been hit. This durability and cage-time experience means he'll be composed when Tulio pressures, won't panic under early fire, and knows how to survive adversity and find his shots.
Despite going 0-2 recently, Kopylov's 12 KO/TKO wins (86% of all victories) demonstrate elite one-shot power and timing. His head kick finish of Chris Curtis in January 2025 showcased the snap that's always been there. Against a defensively suspect Tulio—who concedes 4.18 strikes per minute and has been stopped twice—Kopylov's finishing instincts could end this fight in the first contact window if Tulio pushes forward recklessly.
Kopylov's 10:22 average fight duration vs Tulio's 5:54 reveals a fundamental conditioning difference. Tulio has never been in a fight that went deep—his longest bouts ended in Round 2. Kopylov has survived full 3-round battles against top competition and 7 of his 14 wins came in Round 3. If this fight extends past the midpoint, Kopylov's conditioning advantage compounds and Tulio enters unknown territory.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Tulio's most dangerous window is the opening 90 seconds of each round when his explosive combinations land before opponents find range. Kopylov's 3.71 strikes absorbed per minute indicates he walks into shots, and if Tulio lands his straight right counter-to-blitz sequence early, Kopylov could be in serious trouble before his timing and experience factors kick in.
Back-to-back losses to Rodrigues and Costa—both by unanimous decision—suggest Kopylov may have durability at a high level but struggles to win rounds against top-half middleweights. If Tulio can match him in the striking exchanges early, the scorecards could trend against Kopylov the same way they did in his last two outings, particularly if he absorbs clean shots and fails to find his KO shot.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Kopylov should target Tulio's base with leg kicks to disrupt his offensive momentum and slow his forward march. Body shots in clinch exchanges can drain Tulio's cardio reserves—tested across 3 UFC fights—and cause him to second-guess his all-out aggression. Establishing these damage accumulation layers early forces Tulio to recalibrate rather than simply blitz forward.
Tulio's 52% striking accuracy combined with his aggressive forward pressure creates counter-punching opportunities. Kopylov's best path to a finish is the left hook or head kick counter as Tulio commits to his combinations—similar to how he stopped Curtis. Allowing Tulio to come forward while timing the exit angle gives Kopylov his optimal finishing window.
🚀 Marco Tulio Key Advantages
Tulio's 71% KO/TKO win rate with diverse finishing methods—spinning back kicks, straight rights, hooks to ground strikes—makes him impossible to prepare for dimensionally. He isn't a one-trick knockout artist; he sets up his power shots with volume and angles. Against Kopylov, who has never been stopped by strikes but absorbs 3.71 per minute, Tulio's combination-to-knockout sequence represents a genuine stoppage threat from the opening bell.
Tulio's 5.43 SLpM output vs Kopylov's 4.84—combined with 52% accuracy—means he's landing more clean shots per minute. His straight right in particular has been a fight-ender in multiple fights, and his ability to chain it with follow-up ground strikes shows punch variety. If Kopylov allows Tulio to stay in his preferred range (mid-distance straight punching lane), the Brazilian's output advantage becomes a sustained damage differential.
Tulio's 76-inch reach and 6'1" frame gives him a physical size advantage that allows him to land his straight right at a range Kopylov can't immediately counter. The Contender Series stoppages showed how Tulio converts his reach into timing—extending his right hand at the precise moment opponents close range. This physical edge forces Kopylov to take risks to get inside, creating danger windows during his own offense.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Tulio's 49% striking defense is notably weak—he gets hit, and he gets hit cleanly. Christian Leroy Duncan exposed this with a spinning backfist that Tulio didn't see coming. Kopylov, as a patient counter-puncher with 12 career stoppages, has the tools to time Tulio's forward aggression. If Kopylov can stay disciplined and pick his spots rather than engaging in wild exchanges, he can land his one-shot power shots against Tulio's porous guard.
Tulio's average fight duration of 5:54 means he has never been in a full-pace fight beyond the second round. If Kopylov survives the early storm and drags Tulio into the third round, Tulio will be operating on untested cardio. Kopylov's 10:22 average duration and 7 career Round 3 finishes represent a late-game threat that Tulio simply hasn't faced at this level.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Tulio's optimal strategy is to establish his straight right early and blend it with jabs and hooks to keep Kopylov guessing. Forcing Kopylov to cover and back up removes his timing advantage and prevents him from setting his feet for counter shots. The Brazilian needs to stay busy, land in volume, and set up his power shots through combination pressure rather than telegraphed single strikes.
Given Tulio's untested late-round conditioning, his best path to victory is a Round 1 or Round 2 finish. He should use his reach to establish the jab and create timing for his right hand, applying cage pressure to limit Kopylov's movement. All 10 of his KO/TKO wins came in Round 1 or 2—he should play to his strengths and avoid a strategic firefight that bleeds into Round 3 where Kopylov has historically dominated.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Striking Matchup Dynamics
This is a pure striker's bout with minimal grappling expected from either side. Tulio holds a slight statistical edge in output (5.43 vs 4.84 SLpM) and accuracy (52% vs 48%), but Kopylov's superior striking defense (56% vs 49%) partially offsets this. The key variable is whether Tulio's explosive early-round combinations can penetrate before Kopylov finds his timing. Kopylov has never been stopped by strikes in his career—a testament to his chin and defensive awareness—but Tulio's combination variety makes him a genuine finishing threat even against durable opponents.
🎯Experience vs. Power
The central tension of this fight is Kopylov's veteran savvy against Tulio's explosive finishing instinct. Kopylov's 11 UFC fights have been a doctoral program in middleweight combat—he's fought Costa, Hernandez, and Rodrigues and emerged without a single striking stoppage loss. Tulio, meanwhile, has delivered elite-level finishes on the Contender Series and in early UFC appearances, but has only three UFC fights under his belt and has never gone past Round 2. This sets up a classic gatekeeper vs. prospect dynamic where the outcome hinges on whether Tulio's tools are sophisticated enough to navigate an experienced operator.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three moments will define this fight: the first exchange of the first round (who establishes range and landing first), Round 2 if both men survive (where Kopylov's conditioning begins to matter and Tulio's power starts to fade), and the clinch (where Kopylov's 0.73 TD15 could disrupt Tulio's rhythm). Tulio must not allow the fight to reach the third round without a clear lead. Kopylov must resist the urge to match Tulio in a wild early exchange and instead survive the storm to impose his pace.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Roman Kopylov by TKO/KO in Round 2 or 3 (28% probability)—his counter-striking timing finds Tulio as the Brazilian overcommits in the middle rounds. Tulio by KO/TKO in Round 1 or 2 (26%) is nearly as likely given his elite finishing speed. A Kopylov decision (17%) is the third most probable path if he controls range and defends well. Tulio by decision (9%) or late finish (8%) are the least likely scenarios given his untested late-round conditioning. Despite the near-coin-flip win probability, this fight is predicted to be a violent first-two-round affair unlikely to see scorecards.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💡Value Assessment
Kopylov Value Angle
If the market prices Tulio as a meaningful favorite due to his finishing power and prospect hype, Kopylov represents value based on his durability (never stopped by strikes), conditioning edge in a 3-round bout, and counter-striking ability. His +EV case is strongest if he opens at +130 or longer—a veteran who has never been KO'd fighting an opponent with three UFC fights.
Tulio Value Angle
The "Fight Goes to Decision" prop likely favors Kopylov given both men's tendencies. For Tulio backers, the "Tulio wins by KO/TKO" prop at elevated odds captures his most likely winning path (10 of 14 career wins, all UFC stoppage wins) without paying full favorite moneyline price.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution — Roman Kopylov
Counter timing catches Tulio mid-combination in R2–R3
Volume striking and leg kick damage accumulates on scorecards
Clinch takedown leads to ground control and rear-naked attempt
💥Outcome Distribution — Marco Tulio
Straight right or combination blitz catches Kopylov early
Output advantage builds a scoring lead Kopylov can't erase
Tulio has no submission path — pure striker matchup
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity — Marco Tulio
- • Rounds 1–2: 71% of career wins come in this window; must finish before conditioning gap opens.
- • Straight right setup: Jab to establish range, then convert the straight right as Kopylov counters.
- • Stay upright: Avoiding clinch and grappling preserves Tulio's energy and keeps him on his best ground.
🎯Progressive Advantage — Roman Kopylov
- • Counter timing: Let Tulio lead, exit the angle, and land the overhand right or head kick return.
- • Leg kicks and body work: Accumulate damage to slow Tulio's forward march without trading clean.
- • Round 3 surge: Kopylov's 7 career third-round finishes give him a proven late-game blueprint if ahead or behind on cards.
🏁 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Near-coin-flip matchup. Two strikers with limited UFC sample sizes, a 4-win prospect advantage, and a near-identical KO threat profile make this one of the hardest calls on the UFC 328 card.
✅Supporting Factors
- • Kopylov has never been stopped by strikes in 19 pro fights
- • 3-round conditioning edge is significant given Tulio's 5:54 avg duration
- • Kopylov's 86% career finish rate shows he's dangerous when he finds timing
- • 11 UFC fights vs 3 — the experience gap is real under pressure
- • Tulio's 49% striking defense is the lowest of both fighters
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Kopylov is 2-5 in his last 7 UFC fights — form concerns at this level
- • Tulio's KO power makes every first contact window dangerous
- • Kopylov's 3.71 SApM — he absorbs shots and could be caught cold
- • Tulio's spinning back kick arsenal is virtually impossible to prepare for
- • Only 3 combined UFC fights for Tulio — sample size limits model certainty
🏁Executive Summary
Kopylov vs Tulio is a stylistically clean striker-vs-striker matchup that doubles as a classic gatekeeper test for an ascending Brazilian prospect. Kopylov brings 11 UFC fights of octagon IQ, 12 career KO/TKO wins, and a chin that has never been broken by punches — a remarkable durability record given the level of opposition he's faced. Tulio counters with raw explosive finishing power (10 KO/TKO wins, sub-6-minute average fight time), a 52% striking accuracy that exceeds Kopylov's 48% defense coverage, and a 2-inch reach edge that creates the exact distance where his straight right lives.
Prediction: Kopylov by KO/TKO in Round 2–3 is the single most likely specific outcome (28%) — his counter-striking timing finds Tulio mid-combination as the Brazilian overcommits in the middle rounds. Tulio by KO/TKO in Round 1–2 is nearly as probable (26%), making this a genuine pick'em that turns on a single exchange. At near-even odds, there is limited market edge in either direction; the stronger play is "Fight does not go to decision" — both men's career finish rates (86% and 78.6%) and the striker-vs-striker dynamic make a decision the least likely outcome on the card.