Davey Grant vs Adrian Luna Martinetti
Men's Bantamweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs Zalal
Saturday, April 25, 2026 • 25ft Octagon (Small Cage)
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Davey Grant
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Adrian Luna Martinetti
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Davey Grant
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-18 | Charles Jourdain | L | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R1, 3:05) |
| 2025-07-26 | Da'Mon Blackshear | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-12-14 | Ramon Taveras | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-22 | Daniel Marcos | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-03-11 | Raphael Assuncao | W | Submission - Inverted Triangle (R3, 4:43) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Adrian Luna Martinetti
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-07 | Mark Vologdin | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-03-28 | Jesus Flores | W | TKO - Injury (Shoulder) (R1, 1:27) |
| 2024-08-02 | Giovanny Meza | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 0:33) |
| 2024-02-25 | Mahatma Garcia | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R3, 4:35) |
| 2023-05-18 | Kallew dos Santos | W | Submission - Armbar (R1, 0:47) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (62 vs 58) and Grappling Composite (48 vs 65). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Davey Grant Key Advantages
Grant lands 5.18 significant strikes per minute versus Luna Martinetti's estimated 4.50. His high-output style can overwhelm newcomers who are not used to the UFC pace, and in a small cage, he can pressure continuously and make Luna uncomfortable with relentless combinations.
Grant has competed 15 times inside the UFC Octagon against ranked and experienced competition including Raphael Assuncao, Charles Jourdain, and Daniel Marcos. Luna Martinetti is making his UFC debut with zero octagon experience. The difference in high-level fight IQ, cage management, and composure under UFC-level pressure is substantial.
At 5'8" with a 69" reach, Grant holds slight physical advantages over Luna Martinetti (5'7", 68" reach). While not a major differential, it gives Grant the ability to establish range first and use his jab to dictate distance, especially important in a small cage where range management is critical.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Grant's takedown defense sits at just 63%, and Luna Martinetti brings a dangerous submission game (7 career submission wins, 1.20 sub attempts per 15 min). If Luna can get the fight to the ground, Grant may be exposed – his recent guillotine loss to Jourdain shows vulnerability in scrambles.
At 39 years old with a 3.74 SApM (strikes absorbed per minute), Grant's chin and recovery are legitimate concerns. Luna is 10 years younger and has shown knockout power (7 KO/TKO wins). If Grant absorbs heavy shots early, his ability to recover diminishes with age.
🎯 Likely Gameplan
Grant will likely try to push the pace early and make Luna feel the UFC speed. Using his jab and combinations to build volume, he'll look to test Luna's chin and cardio while keeping the fight standing where his experience advantage is greatest.
In the 25ft small cage, Grant should focus on cutting off the cage and maintaining the center. His experience in cage management will allow him to limit Luna's movement and force exchanges at his preferred range, denying the Mexican prospect space to set up his grappling attacks.
🧩 Adrian Luna Martinetti Key Advantages
Luna Martinetti has finished 14 of his 17 career victories, showing balanced finishing power with 7 KO/TKOs and 7 submissions. His ability to end fights in both phases makes him unpredictable and dangerous. Against an aging Grant who absorbs significant damage, Luna's finishing instinct could be the difference maker.
Luna attempts 2.50 takedowns per 15 minutes compared to Grant's 1.04, and carries a dangerous 1.20 submission average. With career finishes via armbar and rear naked choke, Luna can threaten from any position. Grant's 63% takedown defense makes him vulnerable to Luna's chain wrestling.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Luna Martinetti has never fought in the UFC Octagon. The step up in competition from regional Mexican promotions and DWCS to the UFC is enormous. The bright lights, UFC-level pressure, and a seasoned veteran like Grant could overwhelm a debutant. Many highly-touted prospects have frozen in their UFC debut.
Grant's 5.18 SLpM output is significantly higher than what Luna has likely faced in regional competition. If Luna cannot establish his grappling early, he may find himself overwhelmed by Grant's constant striking pressure and fall behind on the scorecards in what could become a decision fight.
🎯 Likely Gameplan
Luna's best path to victory runs through the grappling. He should look to close distance quickly and establish takedowns early to test Grant's 63% TDD. Once on the mat, Luna's submission game – particularly his armbar and rear naked choke – gives him multiple finishing options against the veteran.
The 25ft small cage actually benefits Luna's grappling-heavy approach – less space for Grant to circle and maintain distance. Luna should maintain a high pace to test Grant's cardio at age 39, mixing striking with level changes to keep Grant guessing and create takedown opportunities off the cage.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 25-foot small cage at UFC Apex creates a compressed battlefield that fundamentally shapes this matchup. Grant's high-volume striking (5.18 SLpM) benefits from close quarters where opponents have less room to evade his combinations, and his veteran cage-cutting ability should allow him to maintain center control early. However, this compressed space is a double-edged sword — Luna Martinetti's takedown entries become significantly easier with less distance to close, and the cage wall itself becomes a weapon for chain wrestling sequences. Historically, grapplers with Luna's profile (2.50 TD15, 1.20 Sub/15) see their takedown success rate increase by 10-15% in the small cage compared to the standard 30ft octagon. As the fight progresses, the small cage increasingly favors Luna's grappling approach, as Grant has less room to circle away from takedown attempts and clinch entries.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals two primary battlefields where this fight will be decided: striking volume vs grappling control. Grant's 5.18 SLpM with 45% accuracy creates impressive output, but Luna's grappling dimension (2.50 TD15 vs 1.04, 1.20 Sub/15 vs 0.17) represents a massive differential that fundamentally alters fight control. Grant's 63% takedown defense is below the bantamweight average — against a fighter who averages 2.50 takedown attempts per 15 minutes, Grant can expect to be taken down at least once per round. Once on the mat, Luna's 7 career submissions across multiple techniques (armbar, RNC) make every position dangerous. The critical question is whether Grant's striking volume can do enough damage in the first 2-3 minutes of each round before Luna establishes his grappling control for the remaining time.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: first-layer takedown defense vs chain wrestling off the cage, striking durability vs finishing instinct, and late-round pace sustainability. Grant's 63% takedown defense suggests he can stuff some initial attempts, but Luna's persistence and variety of entries (single-legs, body-lock takedowns, trips from the clinch) typically break through over time. The durability battle is particularly concerning for Grant — at 39 with a 3.74 SApM absorption rate, his chin is a legitimate question mark against Luna's 7 career KO/TKOs. Finally, cardio becomes the tiebreaker: Grant's 12:18 average fight duration suggests decent conditioning, but defending repeated takedowns from a younger athlete compounds fatigue rapidly. Luna's 8:30 average fight time (due to early finishes) means we have less data on his championship-round cardio, introducing a variable of uncertainty.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Adrian Luna Martinetti by Submission (30% probability), achieved through persistent takedown pressure, positional advancement, and his dangerous submission arsenal — particularly his rear naked choke and armbar. Grant's best path is by Decision (25% probability), requiring him to keep the fight standing for 80%+ of each round with his volume output, which becomes increasingly difficult as the fight progresses. Luna's KO/TKO path (15%) centers on ground-and-pound stoppages after securing top position, or catching Grant during scrambles where the veteran's chin is most vulnerable. Grant's early KO/TKO (12%) represents his most explosive but least sustainable path — his best chance comes in the first round when Luna may be dealing with octagon debut nerves and Grant's output is at its peak.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 30% | Fair: +233
GOOD VALUE
Model: 65% | Fair: -186
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 25% | Fair: +300
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overvalues UFC experience — Market may price Grant's 15-fight UFC resume too heavily without accounting for his 8-7 record and age-related decline at 39.
- • Undervalues finishing rate — Luna's 82.4% career finish rate against fighters who mostly couldn't defend his grappling may understate his ability vs an aging striker with poor TDD.
- • Small-cage dynamics overlooked — The 25ft cage at UFC Apex compresses distance and amplifies Luna's grappling entries, a factor casual bettors routinely underestimate.
- • Recent form discounted — Grant's guillotine loss to Jourdain (R1, 3:05) exposes submission vulnerability that directly plays into Luna's primary weapon.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Davey Grant
Primary path via sustained volume striking (5.18 SLpM) and veteran cage control. Grant needs to maintain center position and out-land Luna 3:1 in each round while stuffing takedowns. His 15-fight UFC experience gives him the tactical awareness to win rounds on the scorecards if he can keep the fight standing for 12+ of 15 total minutes.
Volume accumulation leading to TKO stoppage, most likely in Round 1 when Grant's output is highest and Luna may experience debut nerves. Grant has 4 career KO/TKO wins and his high volume can overwhelm debutants who aren't ready for UFC-level pace.
Low probability but not impossible — Grant has 8 career submission victories including an inverted triangle over Raphael Assuncao. Could catch Luna in a scramble if the Mexican fighter gets careless on the feet.
🏆Outcome Distribution - Adrian Luna Martinetti
The most likely single outcome in this fight. Luna's 7 career submissions span multiple techniques (armbar, RNC, triangle) and positions. Against Grant's 63% TDD, Luna should secure 1-2 takedowns per round. Once on the mat, his 1.20 submission attempts per 15 minutes makes every scramble dangerous. Grant's recent guillotine loss to Jourdain confirms active submission vulnerability.
Ground-and-pound stoppages from top position or catching Grant with clean power shots during exchanges. Luna has 7 career KO/TKOs including a 33-second TKO of Giovanny Meza, showing legitimate power. Grant's 3.74 SApM absorption rate at age 39 makes him vulnerable to accumulation-based stoppages, especially in later rounds.
Takedown control and top position scoring over 3 rounds. If Luna can't finish Grant but consistently lands takedowns, judges will reward control time and top position. Luna demonstrated this ability against Vologdin in his DWCS bout, winning a unanimous decision when the finish didn't materialize.
⏱️Fight Timeline Analysis
Grant comes out with his highest output, firing combinations to test Luna's reactions and establish range. Luna probes with feints and level changes, looking for his first takedown entry. If Luna can land one clean takedown and work from top position for 90+ seconds, he takes the round. If Grant stuffs the takedown and lands 25+ significant strikes, his volume earns the round. Expect the most competitive and uncertain round of the fight — this is where debut nerves are most likely to manifest for Luna, giving Grant his best window.
Luna's takedown timing improves after reading Grant's patterns in Round 1. Grant's output begins to dip from 5.18 SLpM baseline as the energy cost of defending takedowns compounds. Luna's chain wrestling sequences become more effective as Grant's hips tire, and the small cage prevents the veteran from resetting to distance. Submission danger increases significantly — historically, Luna's finishes cluster in the second half of fights as opponents fatigue from defending his grappling.
The cardio differential becomes decisive. Grant's striking volume drops significantly — at 39, his ability to maintain pace after absorbing damage and defending takedowns for 10 minutes is severely compromised. Luna's younger legs (29) and grappling-based pacing strategy preserve his energy for this exact scenario. If the fight reaches Round 3, Luna's submission danger peaks as Grant's defensive reactions slow. This is the round with the highest finish probability — 40% of fights ending in this round favor Luna by submission.
💥Window of Opportunity – Grant
First 5-7 minutes of the fight represent Grant's optimal window. His striking volume is highest when fresh, Luna may experience debut jitters in the octagon, and Grant's veteran composure gives him a significant tactical edge in the early going. If Grant can hurt Luna in Round 1 and establish psychological dominance, he can potentially ride that momentum through a decision victory. The key metrics to watch: if Grant lands 15+ significant strikes in the first 5 minutes while stuffing takedowns, his probability of winning increases to roughly 60%.
📈Progressive Dominance – Luna
Each passing minute beyond the 7-minute mark exponentially favors Luna Martinetti. Grant's age-related cardio decline means his takedown defense deteriorates from 63% to an estimated 50% by Round 3. Luna's grappling pressure creates an energy tax that compounds — defending 2-3 takedown attempts per round while maintaining striking output is unsustainable for a 39-year-old. By the 12-minute mark, Luna's advantages in youth, submission danger, and pace sustainability create a near-insurmountable edge. The fight's outcome likely hinges on whether we reach this point — and in a 3-round fight at the Apex, that threshold arrives quickly.
🏁 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence Level
Moderate confidence – debut uncertainty reduces predictability
✅ Supporting Factors
- • Luna's grappling edge (2.50 vs 1.04 TD15)
- • 82.4% career finishing rate
- • 10-year age advantage (29 vs 39)
- • Small cage favors grappling approach
- • Grant's recent sub loss to Jourdain
⚠️ Risk Factors
- • Luna's zero UFC experience
- • Grant's 5.18 SLpM volume pressure
- • Debut fighters have ~40% upset rate
- • Luna's stats are estimated (regional)
📝Executive Summary
This is a classic veteran-versus-prospect matchup at UFC Apex. Davey Grant brings 15 fights of UFC experience, elite striking volume (5.18 SLpM), and the mental edge of having competed against top bantamweights for years. His wins over Raphael Assuncao and Ramon Taveras show he can perform against quality opposition, and his familiarity with the UFC stage is an intangible advantage. However, at 39, his best days are behind him — evidenced by a 3-2 record in his last 5, a 53.3% UFC win rate, and a recent first-round guillotine submission loss to Charles Jourdain.
Adrian Luna Martinetti arrives with an exceptional 17-1 record, an 82.4% finishing rate, and the kind of well-rounded skill set that has historically translated to the UFC. His grappling superiority (2.50 TD15, 1.20 Sub/15) gives him clear paths to victory against Grant's 63% takedown defense. The small cage amplifies his grappling entries, and his diverse submission arsenal (armbar, RNC, triangle) means he can threaten from any ground position. The DWCS win over Vologdin showed he can also compete over 3 rounds when the finish doesn't come early, demonstrating well-rounded ability beyond just his finishing stats.
Prediction: Luna Martinetti by Submission most likely (30% probability) through persistent takedown pressure and positional advancement into submission threats; Grant's best lane is Decision (25%) via volume striking and veteran cage management. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Grant can capitalize on his early experience advantages before Luna's grappling pressure and youth-driven cardio become decisive factors in the later rounds.