Shamil Gaziev vs Brando Peričić
Men's Heavyweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott
Saturday, April 18, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage) • Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
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Shamil Gaziev
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Brando Peričić
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Shamil Gaziev
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2025 | Waldo Cortes-Acosta | L | TKO (Right Hook) (R1, 1:22) |
| Feb 1, 2025 | Thomas Petersen | W | TKO (Right Hook) (R1, 3:12) |
| Aug 3, 2024 | Don'Tale Mayes | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| Mar 2, 2024 | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | L | TKO (Retirement) (R4, 5:00) |
| Dec 16, 2023 | Martin Buday | W | TKO (Elbows & Punches) (R2, 0:56) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Brando Peričić
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Louie Sutherland | W | TKO (Punches) (R1, 1:48) |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Elisha Ellison | W | TKO (Punches From Top Position) (R1, 1:55) |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Orion Kenny | W | TKO (Ground & Pound) (R1, 1:08) |
| Oct 25, 2024 | Tumanako Phillips | W | TKO (Strikes) (R1, 0:17) |
| May 4, 2024 | Randall Rayment | L | Submission (Rear Naked Choke) (R2, 1:36) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (62.0 vs 58.0) and Grappling Composite (68.0 vs 35.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Shamil Gaziev Key Advantages
Gaziev brings substantially more experience into this fight with 16 professional bouts (14-2) compared to Periçić's 7 (6-1). More importantly, Gaziev has 5 UFC fights including victories over ranked heavyweights like Waldo Cortes-Acosta and a competitive showing against Jairzinho Rozenstruik that lasted 4 rounds. Periçić has only 2 UFC fights totaling under 4 minutes of octagon time—meaning he's never been tested in deeper waters at the UFC level. Gaziev's Dagestani wrestling pedigree (trained under the late Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov) and his ability to win by decision against Don'Tale Mayes proves he can adapt when Plan A doesn't produce a quick finish. This experience gap becomes critical if the fight extends beyond the first round.
Gaziev's 100% takedown defense across 5 UFC fights is a remarkable statistic that completely neutralizes any wrestling threat from Periçić. While Periçić has shown willingness to go to the ground (TKO via Ground & Pound vs Kenny, TKO from Top Position vs Ellison), his 15% takedown accuracy suggests he can't reliably get opponents down. Against Gaziev's Dagestani wrestling base, any takedown attempt by Periçić will be stuffed decisively, wasting energy and potentially creating counter-wrestling opportunities. Gaziev's 1.03 TD15 rate and wrestling-first approach means he dictates where the fight takes place—and his defensive wrestling ensures Periçić cannot reverse that dynamic.
Gaziev possesses devastating one-punch knockout power, demonstrated by his most recent finish against Thomas Petersen—a first-round TKO via right hook. His 9 career KO/TKO wins (64% of victories) show this is a consistent weapon, not a fluke. Combined with 3 submission victories, Gaziev's 80% UFC finish rate (4 finishes in 5 UFC fights) gives him multiple paths to victory. His Dagestani grappling allows him to mix takedown threats with power punching, keeping opponents guessing about whether the next level change is a shot or a power right hand. This wrestling-to-striking blend is exceptionally difficult to defend against at heavyweight where one clean shot can end the fight.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Periçić's City Kickboxing pedigree (training alongside Adesanya and Ulberg) and 100% finish rate with all wins inside the first round makes the opening minutes extremely dangerous. His 15.13 SLpM and 59% striking accuracy—though inflated by short fight times—reflect explosive volume that can overwhelm opponents before they establish their gameplan. Gaziev's 44% striking defense is below average, meaning he absorbs strikes at a concerning rate. If Periçić connects with a clean combination early, Gaziev's chin could be tested— and both his career losses came by KO/TKO.
Periçić holds a 1-inch height advantage (6'5" vs 6'4"), 1-inch reach advantage (80" vs 79"), and a significant 2-inch leg reach advantage (47" vs 45"). At heavyweight, these seemingly small differences matter more because of the power both fighters carry. Periçić can use his frame to keep Gaziev at the end of his punches where Gaziev's power is diminished. The leg reach advantage also allows Periçić to establish range with kicks—a weapon from his kickboxing background that Gaziev may not be prepared for.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Gaziev's optimal approach is to mix takedown feints with heavy right hands—the same right hook that finished both Cortes-Acosta and Petersen. His wrestling threat forces Periçić to respect level changes, which opens up the striking. Gaziev should use his clinch wrestling to dirty box against the cage, where Periçić's kickboxing range advantage is nullified. Body-lock takedowns and trips from the clinch can sap Periçić's energy and limit his explosive output. Once on top, Gaziev's ground-and-pound (demonstrated in the Buday TKO via elbows and punches) becomes a devastating weapon against a fighter with limited defensive grappling experience.
Gaziev must weather Periçić's explosive opening minutes. Every one of Periçić's 6 wins came in the first round, suggesting he loads up early and may not have the gas tank for a sustained 15-minute fight. If Gaziev can survive the initial onslaught and push the fight into rounds 2 and 3, the experience gap becomes massive—Periçić has never been past the second round in his career. Gaziev's 3-round decision win over Mayes proves he can pace himself. Clinch work, smothering wrestling, and patient distance management during R1 could drain Periçić's explosive energy reserves.
🚀 Brando Peričić Key Advantages
Periçić has finished every single one of his 6 professional wins, with 5 coming in the first round. His 15.13 SLpM output (inflated by short fights but still indicative of explosive volume) combined with 59% striking accuracy demonstrates a fighter who comes out with devastating intent. From the 17-second destruction of Tumanako Phillips to the 1:48 TKO of Louie Sutherland in his most recent UFC fight, Periçić has shown an ability to end fights before opponents can establish their gameplan. His City Kickboxing training under Eugene Bareman provides world-class striking technique to complement his raw power—the same camp that produced Israel Adesanya and Carlos Ulberg at the championship level.
At 6'5" with an 80-inch reach and 47-inch leg reach, Periçić has size advantages across every physical dimension. His professional kickboxing background (18-2 record, IKBF/ISKA Super Heavyweight Champion) means he knows how to leverage these attributes—using jabs, front kicks, and long combinations to control distance. His 66% striking defense vastly outperforms Gaziev's 44%, suggesting superior head movement and defensive technique. His 85% takedown defense further indicates he has the sprawling ability to keep the fight standing where his kickboxing arsenal shines. The 1.57 strikes absorbed per minute (vs Gaziev's 3.72) shows he's rarely taking damage—though this metric is from only 2 short UFC fights.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Gaziev's Dagestani wrestling pedigree represents the biggest unknown for Periçić. While his 85% takedown defense looks strong on paper, it's based on only 2 UFC fights against relatively low-level competition (Ellison and Sutherland). Against a purpose-built wrestler like Gaziev who averages 1.03 takedowns per 15 minutes and has 30% accuracy, the volume of wrestling threats could overwhelm Periçić's sprawl. If Gaziev gets the fight to the mat, Periçić's only career loss came by rear naked choke submission—showing vulnerability on the ground against experienced grapplers. Gaziev's clinch wrestling and cage work could systematically drain Periçić's explosive energy.
Periçić has never fought past the second round in his professional career. All 6 wins came in R1, and his only loss (to Randall Rayment) was in R2. This creates a massive question mark about his cardio, chin durability, and mental composure if the fight extends into deeper waters. Gaziev has shown he can fight 3 full rounds (decision win over Mayes) and even into R4 (Rozenstruik fight). If Periçić fails to finish early, he enters completely uncharted territory against a more experienced opponent who thrives in later rounds.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Periçić's path to victory runs through an early finish. He should look to establish range with his jab and front kick, then close distance with explosive combinations. His kickboxing background means he's comfortable throwing in bunches—hooks, uppercuts, and knees in the clinch. The key is to land heavy in the first 2-3 minutes before Gaziev can establish his wrestling rhythm. Given Gaziev's 44% striking defense, there are openings to be exploited with clean technique and volume. Periçić should target the body early to slow Gaziev's takedown entries and drain his cardio for later rounds.
When Gaziev attempts to close distance for wrestling, Periçić must use his 80-inch reach to keep him at the end of his punches and his 85% takedown defense to stuff shots. Circling off the cage is essential— Gaziev's clinch work is his most dangerous wrestling tool, and getting pinned against the fence eliminates Periçić's striking range advantage. If taken down, Periçić must get back to his feet immediately rather than engaging in ground battles where Gaziev's Dagestani grappling is dominant. Wall walks, underhook escapes, and explosive hip movements are critical defensive tools.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon creates favorable conditions for both fighters' preferred ranges. Periçić's kickboxing background benefits from the larger space—more room to establish range with his 80-inch reach, throw kicks, and circle away from Gaziev's wrestling entries. However, the larger cage also gives Gaziev more runway to set up his takedowns with feints and footwork before committing to a level change.
The fence game heavily favors Gaziev. Once he pushes Periçić against the cage, the Australian's kickboxing range advantage evaporates. Gaziev's clinch wrestling—body locks, trips, and dirty boxing—becomes the dominant weapon in fence exchanges. Periçić must prioritize cage awareness and lateral movement to avoid being cornered, where Gaziev's smothering pressure would be most effective.
🎯Technical Breakdown
This heavyweight clash pits a battle-tested Dagestani wrestler against an explosive but relatively untested kickboxer. Gaziev's 100% takedown defense completely eliminates any grappling threat from Periçić, while his 1.03 TD15 rate and Dagestani wrestling base give him the tools to impose his gameplan. Periçić's 85% takedown defense is strong but untested against high-level wrestling—his only ground loss (RNC vs Rayment) shows vulnerability when controlled.
The striking statistics present an interesting picture. Periçić's 15.13 SLpM and 59% accuracy dwarf Gaziev's 2.43 SLpM and 49% accuracy—but these numbers are heavily inflated by Periçić's extremely short fight times (average 1:52). Gaziev's lower output is similarly skewed by his wrestling-heavy approach. The meaningful comparison is power: both fighters finish fights with devastating strikes. Gaziev's right hook has produced back-to-back R1 TKOs, while Periçić's diverse striking arsenal has yielded 5 KO/TKO wins.
The critical question is whether Periçić can execute his knockout gameplan before Gaziev establishes wrestling control and cardio dominance. Every minute that passes favors the experienced Dagestani.
🧩Key Battle Areas
1) The Opening 3 Minutes: This is THE critical window. Periçić has finished all 6 wins in R1 and has never been in a competitive fight past R2. If he lands his power shots early, the fight could be over before Gaziev implements his wrestling. Gaziev must weather this storm—using movement, clinch work, and takedown threats to survive Periçić's explosive opening and drag him into uncharted territory.
2) Takedown Battle: Gaziev's 1.03 TD15 vs Periçić's 85% TDDef is the key wrestling dynamic. If Gaziev can get the fight to the ground, his Dagestani grappling and ground-and-pound (Buday TKO) become devastating. But if Periçić's sprawl holds up, Gaziev will be forced to strike at range where the Australian has advantages in reach and technique.
3) Chin & Durability: Both fighters have shown vulnerability. Gaziev's 2 career losses are both by KO/TKO, and his 44% striking defense means he gets hit. Periçić's submission loss to Rayment showed he can be overwhelmed on the ground. At heavyweight, one clean shot from either fighter can end this fight—power is the great equalizer.
Verdict: Gaziev's experience, wrestling pedigree, and proven ability to fight in later rounds give him the edge. But Periçić's explosive knockout power and City Kickboxing technique make him a serious threat in the early going. This is a high-risk, high-reward matchup that likely ends by finish.
🏁Final Prediction
Most Likely Outcome: Gaziev by KO/TKO (33%)— Gaziev uses his wrestling threat to set up his devastating right hook, similar to his finishes against Cortes-Acosta and Petersen. His level-change feints freeze Periçić, creating openings for power shots. Alternatively, Gaziev secures a takedown and finishes with ground-and-pound, as he did against Martin Buday.
Periçić by KO/TKO (30%) — Periçić connects with his explosive striking in the opening minutes, exploiting Gaziev's 44% striking defense. His City Kickboxing combinations land clean, and Gaziev's chin—which has been compromised twice in his career—fails him. The finish likely comes in R1 given Periçić's finishing pattern.
Gaziev by Submission (13%) — Gaziev takes the fight down and transitions to a dominant position, eventually securing a submission. His 3 career submission wins and Dagestani grappling give him the tools, and Periçić's vulnerability to RNC (his only loss) makes this a real possibility.
Gaziev by Decision (16%) — Gaziev controls the fight through wrestling pressure and cage work over three rounds, outpointing Periçić who fades after failing to finish early. This outcome requires Periçić to show durability but not enough offense to win rounds.
Assessment: This fight is likely to end by finish given both fighters' high finish rates (80% and 100%). Gaziev's experience, wrestling pedigree, and proven durability against UFC-level competition make him the rightful favorite. However, Periçić's explosive knockout power—backed by elite City Kickboxing coaching— makes him a dangerous opponent who could end this fight in seconds. The R1 window is critical: if Periçić doesn't finish early, Gaziev's advantages compound exponentially.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 85% | Fair: -567
GOOD VALUE
Model: 33% | Fair: +203
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 30% | Fair: +233
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Periçić's small sample size – Only 2 UFC fights totaling under 4 minutes of octagon time makes all his stats unreliable for projection.
- • Gaziev's chin vulnerability – Both career losses came by KO/TKO; 44% striking defense is a real concern against an explosive striker.
- • Finish rate convergence – Combined 180% finish rate (80% + 100%) makes this one of the highest-finish-probability heavyweight fights on the card.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Shamil Gaziev
Primary path via right hook KO or ground-and-pound TKO
Dagestani grappling from dominant wrestling positions
Wrestling control and outpointing over three rounds
💥Outcome Distribution - Brando Peričić
Primary path via explosive kickboxing combinations in R1
Low probability given limited grappling experience
Unlikely given 0 career decision wins and cardio unknowns
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
R1: The Danger Zone
This is Periçić's round. He'll come out explosive, looking to establish his kickboxing range with jabs and front kicks before closing distance with power combinations. All 6 of his career wins came in the first round, and his City Kickboxing coaching will have him prepared to attack Gaziev's 44% striking defense immediately. Gaziev must survive the initial storm—using movement, clinch work, and early takedown attempts to disrupt Periçić's rhythm. If Gaziev can weather the first 3 minutes without taking significant damage, the dynamics shift dramatically. Every second that passes without a Periçić finish builds Gaziev's confidence and tests Periçić's untested endurance. This round likely determines the fight.
R2: Uncharted Territory
If the fight reaches R2, Periçić enters completely unknown territory—he has never fought competitively past this point in his career. His only experience in R2 was his submission loss to Randall Rayment. Gaziev, meanwhile, has proven R2 finishing ability (Buday TKO at 0:56 of R2) and has fought 4 rounds against a dangerous Rozenstruik. The wrestling pressure should intensify as Gaziev reads Periçić's timing. If Periçić's explosive output in R1 didn't produce a finish, fatigue becomes a real factor—his fast-twitch, explosive style is energy-expensive. Gaziev's clinch work and cage wrestling should begin dominating, with body locks and trips sapping Periçić's remaining energy reserves.
R3: Gaziev's Domain
If this fight goes to R3, it's overwhelmingly in Gaziev's favor. Periçić has literally never been here in his career. Gaziev has a full 3-round decision win over Don'Tale Mayes to prove his championship-round durability. The Dagestani's wrestling pressure should be at its peak—Periçić's legs will be heavy from defending takedowns and his explosive power will be diminished. Gaziev can take calculated risks knowing that Periçić's counter-striking timing is compromised by fatigue. Ground-and-pound, smothering top control, or a late knockout against a gassed opponent are all viable finishing sequences. The experience gap is at its maximum in this round.
⚡Window of Opportunity - Brando Peričić
- • First 3 minutes: Highest KO equity before Gaziev establishes wrestling rhythm.
- • Range control: Use 80" reach and kicks to keep Gaziev at distance where wrestling is harder.
- • Power combos: Load up with City Kickboxing combinations targeting Gaziev's 44% striking defense.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Shamil Gaziev
- • Survive R1: Weather the explosive opening and push the fight past Periçić's comfort zone.
- • Clinch wrestling: Close distance, establish body locks, and smother Periçić's offense.
- • Ground-and-pound: Secure takedowns and finish with elbows and punches from top position.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong edge via experience and wrestling, tempered by Periçić's explosive KO power
✅Supporting Factors
- • Massive experience edge (14-2 vs 6-1, 5 UFC fights vs 2)
- • Perfect takedown defense (100% TDDef) eliminates grappling threat
- • Proven durability against top competition (3-round decision, 4-round fight)
- • Dagestani wrestling pedigree creates multi-dimensional threat
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Periçić's explosive R1 finishing power (100% finish rate, all in R1)
- • Gaziev's 44% striking defense and 2 career KO/TKO losses
- • City Kickboxing coaching (Adesanya/Ulberg camp) provides elite striking technique
- • Periçić's physical advantages: +1" height, +1" reach, +2" leg reach
🏁Executive Summary
Shamil Gaziev's Dagestani wrestling pedigree and proven UFC experience create a clear tactical advantage against the explosive but relatively untested Brando Periçić in this heavyweight clash. Gaziev's 100% takedown defense eliminates any grappling threat, while his 1.03 TD15 and wrestling-to-striking blend give him multiple paths to victory. His back-to-back R1 TKO wins via right hook demonstrate fight-ending power that can match Periçić's explosiveness. However, Periçić's City Kickboxing training, 100% finish rate, and devastating first-round power make the opening minutes extremely dangerous for Gaziev, whose 44% striking defense and 2 career KO/TKO losses represent real vulnerability. Periçić's physical advantages (+1" height, +1" reach, +2" leg reach) compound the striking threat.
Prediction: Gaziev by KO/TKO most likely (33% probability) via wrestling-to- striking setup or ground-and-pound; Periçić's primary upset lane is KO/TKO (30%) via explosive first-round striking. This fight likely ends by finish given both fighters' elite finishing rates. The critical variable is timing: if Periçić doesn't finish in the opening minutes, Gaziev's experience and wrestling pressure should take over decisively.