Clayton Carpenter vs Jose Ochoa
Men's Flyweight • UFC 328
Saturday, May 9, 2026 • Prudential Center, Newark, NJ
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Clayton Carpenter
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Jose Ochoa
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Clayton Carpenter
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-11 | Jafel Filho | L | Submission - Kimura (R1, 4:42) |
| 2025-01-18 | Tagir Ulanbekov | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-10-12 | Lucas Rocha | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R2, 2:12) |
| 2023-02-18 | Juancamilo Ronderos | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 3:13) |
| 2022-08-09 | Edgar Cháirez | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Jose Ochoa
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-26 | Asu Almabayev | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-06-14 | Cody Durden | W | TKO - Left Hook to Ground Punches (R2, 0:11) |
| 2024-11-23 | Lone'er Kavanagh | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-11-03 | Juscelino Pantoja | W | Submission - Anaconda Choke (R1, 4:30) |
| 2023-09-30 | Jeferson Pereira | W | TKO - Left Straight (R1, 1:42) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (58 vs 74) and Grappling Composite (72 vs 52). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📈 Statistical Comparison
⚔️ Fight Analysis
🚀 Clayton Carpenter Key Advantages
Carpenter's 1.9 submissions per 15 minutes and four career submission victories—including multiple rear-naked chokes—represent a constant finishing threat the moment the fight hits the mat. His UFC wins over Lucas Rocha (RNC, R2) and Juancamilo Ronderos (RNC, R1) demonstrate he can execute submissions efficiently against UFC-caliber opponents. Against a striker like Ochoa whose losses both came by decision in striking-heavy bouts, any takedown Carpenter secures creates a high-percentage finishing opportunity. Ochoa's 0.5 submissions per 15 minutes means the grappling exchanges are entirely one-directional in terms of submission equity.
Carpenter's 4.2 takedowns per 15 minutes creates relentless grappling pressure that punishes Ochoa every time he tries to reset to his preferred striking range. His 52% takedown accuracy means that even on an average night, he can consistently drag the fight to the canvas. Ochoa's 62% takedown defense is respectable but Carpenter's volume creates a numbers problem—with enough attempts, at least some will succeed and Carpenter only needs one to open submission hunting sequences.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Ochoa's 7 career KO/TKO finishes and 5.6 SLpM striking output means Carpenter faces genuine KO danger during the takedown entries where he's loading up for level changes. Carpenter's only KO/TKO-adjacent vulnerability is during wrestling scrambles when his chin is exposed. Ochoa's 0:11 TKO of Cody Durden demonstrates he can end fights with a single shot— exactly the scenario Carpenter must avoid by shooting with head movement and level changes rather than telegraphed doubles.
Carpenter enters this fight on a two-fight losing streak, most recently submitted by Jafel Filho via Kimura and outpointed by ranked contender Tagir Ulanbekov. Those defeats against top-15 opposition raised legitimate questions about his UFC ceiling. If his wrestling entries are telegraphed or countered early, the same striking deficits that led to the Ulanbekov loss could surface against Ochoa's power.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Carpenter's optimal approach is to close distance immediately, minimize time in Ochoa's preferred boxing range, and secure body-lock clinch positions against the fence. From the clinch, his superior grappling composite (72 vs 52) translates directly into takedown attempts and ground control time. Mixing in straight punches to set up level changes prevents Ochoa from simply posting and defending without committing hands—once Ochoa reaches back to defend a shot, Carpenter can transition to underhook control.
Carpenter's submission finishes are primarily rear-naked chokes, making back control his highest-percentage finishing position. His gameplan should prioritize transitions to back control from any top position, applying choke threats that force Ochoa to defend actively and creating ground-and-pound openings when Ochoa commits to protecting his neck. Ochoa's one submission loss (anaconda choke in LFA) suggests vulnerability to choke threats when forced to fight defensively on the ground.
🚀 Jose Ochoa Key Advantages
Ochoa's 7-of-8 KO/TKO finish rate is exceptional for flyweight, a division not known for knockout power. His 5.6 SLpM striking output combined with heavy hands means every clean exchange carries fight-ending consequences. The 0:11 TKO of Cody Durden—left hook followed by ground punches—demonstrates he can create and capitalize on opportunities instantly. Against a grappler who must close distance to succeed, Ochoa's punching power provides a natural counter to every takedown attempt Carpenter launches.
Ochoa's 5.6 SLpM output—double Carpenter's 2.8—means he wins nearly every standing exchange on volume alone if the fight stays on the feet. His 52% striking accuracy at that output rate indicates he's landing clean shots, not just throwing wildly. If Carpenter's takedown attempts are repeatedly stuffed, Ochoa's striking volume will accumulate significant damage that could stop the fight or clearly win the scorecards. His striking composite (74 vs 58) reflects the meaningful gap in standing performance.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Ochoa's submission vulnerabilities—he was choked out via anaconda in LFA—signal genuine danger when pinned under a submission specialist. His 0.5 SubPer15 means he offers no reciprocal submission threat, so every second of ground time is entirely advantageous to Carpenter. If Carpenter secures back control, Ochoa has no viable counter beyond escape attempts that leave him exhausted and potentially giving up position repeatedly through three rounds.
Ochoa's entire loss record consists of decisions (0-2 by decision), meaning when he can't finish early, his fight IQ and technical output over a full three rounds often falls short. Both UFC decision losses— to Lone'er Kavanagh and Asu Almabayev—came against opponents who moved well and forced Ochoa into a volume striking contest he couldn't dominate. If Carpenter keeps the fight close with effective grappling, Ochoa's judges' scorecard performance becomes unreliable.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Ochoa's optimal strategy is maintaining mid-range distance where his power shots can land without overcommitting, while countering Carpenter's takedown entries with sharp uppercuts and hooks aimed at the exposed chin during level changes. Circling away from the cage denies Carpenter his preferred fence clinch position and forces him to chase—creating counter-striking opportunities as Carpenter closes distance into Ochoa's power zone.
Ochoa's 5 career R1 finishes signal that his highest win probability comes from fast starts. By opening with heavy combinations immediately and testing Carpenter's chin early, Ochoa can either score the early TKO before the wrestling game develops, or establish a damage advantage that complicates Carpenter's ability to execute wrestling entries in rounds two and three. His 87.5% career finish rate suggests once he drops an opponent, he converts efficiently.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The cage creates a meaningful advantage for Carpenter once he can close distance and pin Ochoa against the fence. Ochoa thrives at mid-range where his power shots land with full extension, but against a persistent grappler the cage wall removes lateral escape and makes fence-clinch body locks easier to establish. Carpenter must survive the dangerous pocket crossing—Ochoa's left hook counter during level changes is his primary KO weapon—and use cage angles to limit the counter-striking real estate available to Ochoa. If Carpenter can make it to the clinch consistently, the octagon transforms from Ochoa's striking canvas into Carpenter's grappling arena.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis identifies two decisive battlefields: takedown volume versus knockout power. Carpenter's 4.2 TD15 versus Ochoa's 1.2 represents a 3.5x differential in grappling activity that fundamentally shifts fight control if even a fraction succeed. Ochoa's striking volume (5.6 SLpM, 52% accuracy) dwarfs Carpenter's 2.8 SLpM, meaning every standing sequence heavily favors Ochoa on output. The grappling composite gap (72 vs 52) confirms Carpenter's clear advantage on the mat, while Ochoa's striking composite (74 vs 58) shows he wins the striking dimension decisively—making takedown success the single critical variable that determines which composite matters more.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas define this fight: takedown entry safety versus counter-hook timing, ground submission depth versus escape urgency, and pace sustainability over three rounds. Carpenter's 52% takedown accuracy means he lands more than half his attempts on average—but Ochoa's 62% takedown defense and explosive counter-punching make every entry attempt a KO-risk transaction. On the ground, Ochoa has zero submissions landed in the UFC but was submitted via anaconda in LFA, suggesting genuine vulnerability to choke threats. The three-round format actually benefits Carpenter more than Ochoa—his grappling-heavy approach accumulates control time across rounds, while Ochoa's best path requires an early finish before Carpenter's attrition game compounds.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Jose Ochoa by KO/TKO (35% probability), capitalizing on counter-punching opportunities during Carpenter's takedown entries with his devastating left hook. Carpenter's submission path (28%) remains viable if he can safely navigate to the mat and secure back control for rear-naked choke attempts—a scenario that becomes more likely as rounds accumulate and Ochoa tires from defending grappling sequences. Ochoa's all-losses-by-decision record suggests his path to winning a three-round fight on the scorecards is unreliable, which actually creates value on Carpenter if the fight extends past round one.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 28% | Fair: +257
GOOD VALUE
Model: 35% | Fair: +186
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 20% | Fair: +400
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Market undervalues Carpenter submission threat – Grappling composite edge (72 vs 52) and 1.9 SubPer15 create real finishing equity that outright submission odds should reflect.
- • Ochoa's decision-loss record is a liability – Both UFC losses came by decision; market may be pricing his KO rate without discounting his inability to win on the cards if Carpenter grinds it out.
- • KO path carries significant variance – Ochoa's 88% finish rate is compelling but both losses came to fighters who moved well and denied him the finish—Carpenter's grappling control could replicate that pattern.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Clayton Carpenter
Primary path via rear-naked choke from back control
Grinding grappling control accumulates scorecard rounds
Ground-and-pound stoppage from dominant top position
💥Outcome Distribution - Jose Ochoa
Counter left hook or early blitz stoppage
Volume striking dominance denies takedowns all three rounds
Very unlikely given Carpenter's grappling edge
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Jose Ochoa
- • First 5 minutes: Peak power output and sharpest counter-punching timing before grappling fatigue sets in.
- • Counter left hook: Most dangerous during Carpenter's level changes—timing this punch is Ochoa's primary KO vector.
- • Stay upright: Every takedown Ochoa surrenders shifts the fight toward Carpenter's submission strengths.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Clayton Carpenter
- • Takedown volume: 4.2 TD/15min creates a numbers problem—at least some entries succeed even against 62% defense.
- • Back control priority: Rear-naked choke threats from back control are Carpenter's highest-percentage finish sequence.
- • Late rounds: Three-round format rewards grappling attrition as Ochoa's explosive power wanes defending takedowns.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Genuine two-way fight — grappling edge versus elite KO power creates high variance
✅Supporting Factors
- • Strong takedown volume edge (4.2 vs 1.2 TD15)
- • Ochoa loses 100% of career decisions — struggles when finish is denied
- • Carpenter's RNC finishes show efficient submission execution
- • Three-round format favors attrition grappling over explosive striking
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Carpenter on a 2-fight losing streak entering this fight
- • Ochoa's 0:11 TKO of Durden — single-punch KO danger is real
- • 62% takedown defense means Carpenter won't get everything he attempts
- • Both fighters have limited UFC sample sizes (4 and 3 fights)
🏁Executive Summary
This fight presents a textbook grappler-versus-striker clash with meaningful advantages on both sides. Carpenter's grappling composite (72 vs 52) and 4.2 TD15 give him a clear edge if the fight reaches the mat, while Ochoa's striking composite (74 vs 58) and 5.6 SLpM mean every standing exchange tilts heavily in his favor. The critical variable is Carpenter's ability to safely close distance without walking into Ochoa's devastating counter left hook — a punch that ended Cody Durden's night in 11 seconds. Ochoa's 0-2 record in decisions provides a meaningful structural advantage to Carpenter if the fight extends: Ochoa has never won a three-round fight on the scorecards, and his explosive power depletes faster than Carpenter's grinding grappling style.
Prediction: Ochoa by KO/TKO is the most probable single outcome (35%) driven by his exceptional counter-punching power during Carpenter's takedown entries. However, Carpenter's submission path (28%) represents the strongest value play — if he can safely navigate to the mat and secure back control, his rear-naked choke finish rate against UFC opponents gives him real finishing equity. The fight's outcome hinges entirely on whether Carpenter can close distance without absorbing the counter left hook that has ended seven of Ochoa's eight opponents.