Tatiana Suarez vs Lupita Godinez
Women's Strawweight Bout • UFC 327
Saturday, April 11, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Tatiana Suarez
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Lupita Godinez
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Tatiana Suarez
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-13 | Amanda Lemos | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-02-08 | Weili Zhang | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-08-05 | Jessica Andrade | W | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R2, 1:31) |
| 2023-02-25 | Montana De La Rosa | W | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R2, 2:51) |
| 2019-06-08 | Nina Nunes | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Lupita Godinez
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-16 | Jessica Andrade | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-03-29 | Julia Polastri | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-08-03 | Mackenzie Dern | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-30 | Virna Jandiroba | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-11-11 | Tabatha Ricci | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (58.0 vs 60.0) and Grappling Composite (78.0 vs 65.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Tatiana Suarez Key Advantages
Suarez averages 4.41 takedowns per 15 minutes vs Godinez's 2.96, representing a significant wrestling volume advantage. Suarez's chain-wrestling sequences and relentless pressure create fight-controlling cycles that accumulate control time. Her 44% takedown accuracy against Godinez's strong 82% defense will be tested, but Suarez's persistence and ability to chain multiple attempts typically break through over three rounds. Her guillotine choke finishes against Andrade and De La Rosa demonstrate her ability to capitalize on scrambles and transitions.
At 5'5" with a 66" reach vs Godinez's 5'2" and 61" reach, Suarez holds an unusual size advantage for a wrestler. The 5-inch reach differential allows her to establish jab range while setting up takedown entries. Her height advantage creates better angles for clinch work and snap-downs, and her longer frame provides superior leverage in grappling exchanges along the fence.
Suarez absorbs only 1.58 significant strikes per minute compared to Godinez's 4.03. This 2.45 SApM differential means Suarez takes far less cumulative damage, preserving her energy for wrestling sequences. While her 45% striking defense is lower than Godinez's 62%, her wrestling-heavy approach minimizes standing time where she's most vulnerable. Once she secures takedowns, Suarez's damage absorption drops to near zero while she accumulates control time.
Fighting from a southpaw stance against Godinez's orthodox positioning gives Suarez natural angular advantages. Her lead left hand controls centerline while her lead leg positioning on the outside makes level changes for takedown entries more difficult to defend. The open-stance matchup creates favorable angles for her power hand (right) jab setups and allows her to circle away from Godinez's power side while setting up wrestling attacks from advantageous positions.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Suarez's 45% striking defense is the lowest metric in this matchup. If Godinez can keep the fight standing and maintain her 4.51 SLpM output, she can out-volume Suarez significantly. Suarez's striking accuracy (61%) is elite, but her low 2.95 SLpM output means she can be outscored in standing exchanges where Godinez thrives.
Godinez's 82% takedown defense is elite and could frustrate Suarez's initial shot attempts. If Godinez can stuff early takedowns and build confidence in her striking, she can dictate the pace and range of the fight, keeping Suarez at distance where the volume differential becomes decisive.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Suarez should close distance quickly, use her jab to set up clinch entries, and chain wrestling attempts along the fence. Her reach advantage allows her to land jabs before shooting, and her chain-wrestling ability means even stuffed takedowns lead to subsequent attempts. The clinch is where Suarez's size and strength advantage maximizes, creating opportunities for trips, throws, and snap-downs.
Once Suarez secures top position, she should focus on maintaining heavy top pressure while hunting for submission opportunities. Her guillotine choke is her signature weapon—she should look for front headlock positions during scrambles. Accumulating ground control time while threatening submissions forces Godinez to defend both, creating scoring opportunities and potential finishes.
🚀 Lupita Godinez Key Advantages
Godinez's 4.51 SLpM output dwarfs Suarez's 2.95, creating a significant volume advantage when the fight stays standing. Her pressure-fighting style with constant forward movement and high output can overwhelm opponents who struggle to match her pace. Against Suarez's 45% striking defense, Godinez can land clean shots consistently while maintaining relentless pressure that makes takedown entries more difficult for Suarez.
Godinez's 82% takedown defense is among the best in the strawweight division, which could be the key factor in neutralizing Suarez's primary weapon. Her ability to stuff initial takedown attempts and quickly return to her feet creates opportunities to keep the fight standing where she holds the striking advantage. Strong hips and scrambling ability make her difficult to hold down even when taken to the mat.
Godinez's average fight duration of 13:47 vs Suarez's 11:42 indicates superior cardio conditioning and ability to sustain high-output activity into championship rounds. Her pressure-fighting style requires elite gas tank, and she's demonstrated the ability to maintain 4.51 SLpM output across full 15-minute fights. If she can force Suarez into extended striking exchanges and defend enough takedowns to keep rounds competitive, her cardio edge becomes increasingly significant in Rounds 2 and 3 as wrestling-heavy approaches drain energy faster than volume striking.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Suarez secures takedowns and establishes top position, Godinez's striking output drops to near zero while Suarez accumulates control time and submission threats. Suarez's chain-wrestling and mat returns create extended ground sequences that can dominate entire rounds, a nightmare scenario for a volume striker like Godinez.
Giving up 3 inches in height and 5 inches in reach is significant at strawweight. Godinez must close distance to land effectively, which plays directly into Suarez's clinch-to-takedown game. The size differential makes it harder for Godinez to maintain her preferred range and creates leverage disadvantages in clinch exchanges.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Godinez's optimal strategy involves maintaining relentless striking pressure with her 4.51 SLpM volume to overwhelm Suarez on the feet. She should focus on circling away from the fence to avoid clinch situations, using quick combinations and lateral movement to score while preventing Suarez from establishing clinch control. Punishing Suarez's entries with counter strikes can deter takedown attempts.
Godinez must avoid getting backed against the fence where Suarez's wrestling is most effective. Using the 30-foot octagon's space to circle, maintain distance, and fire combinations on the move is critical. Her cardio advantage (13:47 avg fight time vs 11:42) means she can sustain high output throughout all three rounds if she keeps the fight in open space.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon provides Godinez with space to circle and maintain striking range, initially favoring her volume approach. However, Suarez's ability to cut off the cage and establish clinch positions along the fence gradually compresses the available space. Suarez's wrestling-heavy approach transforms the cage from a striking arena into a grappling battleground as she pressures Godinez toward the fence for takedown attempts.
🎯Technical Breakdown
This fight presents a classic wrestler vs striker dynamic. Suarez's 4.41 TD15 vs Godinez's 2.96 creates a wrestling volume edge, but Godinez's 82% TDD is the key variable. Suarez's 61% striking accuracy is elite but her 2.95 SLpM output can be overwhelmed by Godinez's 4.51 SLpM volume. The damage economy heavily favors Suarez (1.58 vs 4.03 SApM), meaning she preserves energy better over three rounds. The central question: can Godinez keep the fight standing long enough to outpoint Suarez?
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas: first-layer takedown defense vs chain wrestling, volume striking vs clinch control, and cardio management over three rounds. Godinez's 82% TDD suggests she can stuff many initial shots, but Suarez's persistence and chain-wrestling break through over time. If Suarez secures even one takedown per round with extended control time, she likely wins that round regardless of Godinez's standing output. Godinez needs clean striking rounds where she avoids clinch situations entirely.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Tatiana Suarez by Decision (30% probability), achieved through consistent takedown pressure and ground control over three rounds. Suarez's submission path (25%) via guillotine choke is a strong secondary outcome, particularly during scrambles off takedown attempts. Godinez's best path is by Decision (25%) through volume striking and elite TDD, requiring her to keep the fight standing for the majority of all three rounds. The 5-inch reach advantage for Suarez, combined with her elite wrestling, tilts this matchup in her favor despite Godinez's impressive durability and volume.
⚡Pace & Momentum Dynamics
The fight's momentum will shift dramatically based on who controls the clinch exchanges in the opening minutes. If Suarez establishes early takedowns in Round 1, she builds psychological momentum that compounds the physical drain of defending her wrestling. Conversely, if Godinez stuffs the first 3-4 takedown attempts and lands clean volume striking, she gains confidence while planting doubt about Suarez's ability to execute her gameplan. The 30-foot cage favors Godinez early (more space to circle and strike) but becomes Suarez's ally as fatigue sets in and cage-cutting becomes easier. Round 2 is the critical inflection point: whoever controls Round 2 likely dictates the fight's narrative and outcome.
🔥Historical Context & Recent Form
Suarez enters on a 1-fight win streak after bouncing back from her only career loss (unanimous decision to Weili Zhang for the title in February 2025). Her dominant win over Amanda Lemos in September 2025 reaffirmed her elite grappling, though it went to decision rather than a finish. Before the Zhang loss, she was on an 11-fight win streak including guillotine choke finishes of Jessica Andrade and Montana De La Rosa. Godinez brings a 2-fight win streak with recent unanimous decision victories over Julia Polastri and Jessica Andrade. However, her losses to Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba (both grapplers) exposed vulnerabilities against elite ground fighters. Suarez represents Godinez's toughest grappling test since those defeats, and her ability to evolve her defensive wrestling will be tested at the highest level.
💰Betting Value & Market Efficiency
The model projects Suarez at 68% win probability (-213 fair odds) compared to Godinez at 32% (+213). Market odds will likely align closely with these projections given Suarez's clear wrestling advantage and size edge. Value opportunities may emerge if the market overvalues Godinez's recent win streak or undervalues the stylistic mismatch. Method-of-victory props favor Suarez by Decision (30%) and Suarez by Submission (25%), while Godinez by Decision (25%) represents her most realistic path. Live betting could offer value if Godinez wins Round 1 on volume striking, potentially inflating her price despite Suarez's historical pattern of increasing wrestling pressure in later rounds. Total rounds OVER 2.5 (-150 estimated) holds value given both fighters' recent decision-heavy results and Godinez's durability.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 25% | Fair: +300
GOOD VALUE
Model: 30% | Fair: +233
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 25% | Fair: +300
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Undervalues Suarez's submission threat – Guillotine choke finishes against ranked opponents show elite finishing ability.
- • Overweights Godinez's TDD – 82% defense impressive but untested against elite chain-wrestlers like Suarez.
- • Size factor underpriced – 5-inch reach advantage for the wrestler is rare and impactful.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Tatiana Suarez
Primary path via wrestling control and rides
Guillotine choke from scrambles and front headlock
Ground-and-pound accumulation from top position
💥Outcome Distribution - Lupita Godinez
Best lane via volume striking and TDD
Low KO rate limits finishing potential
Unlikely against Suarez's grappling pedigree
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
🥊Round 1: Establishing Dominance (0:00 - 5:00)
Feeling-out phase. Godinez looks to establish her jab and maintain cage center, circling laterally to avoid early clinch attempts. Suarez measures distance with her southpaw lead hand, probing for openings. Both fighters exchange light leg kicks and jabs, with Godinez landing 8-10 strikes to Suarez's 4-5. Godinez slightly ahead on volume but no significant damage landed.
First Wrestling Exchange. Suarez times a level change off a Godinez jab, shooting a double-leg. Godinez sprawls effectively (82% TDD showing), but Suarez chains to a single-leg against the fence. After 20 seconds of fence wrestling, Suarez completes the takedown at 2:15. Godinez immediately works to her feet within 30 seconds, but Suarez has established psychological dominance. Suarez 10-9 on control time despite brief duration.
Back on the feet, Godinez increases volume with combinations (1-2-leg kick sequences) trying to make Suarez pay for closing distance. Lands clean 1-2 to the body. Suarez absorbs shots while walking forward, cutting the cage. Suarez shoots another takedown at 3:45—Godinez defends initially but Suarez adjusts to body lock, landing the takedown at 3:55. Brief top control before round ends.
Suarez in half guard, working to pass while Godinez defends with active hips and underhooks. Suarez lands short elbows from top while maintaining heavy pressure. Godinez attempts to wall-walk but Suarez drags her back down. Final 30 seconds sees Suarez threaten with arm-triangle setup but bell saves Godinez. Round 1 to Suarez 10-9 on two takedowns and late control time, though Godinez won striking exchanges.
⚔️Round 2: Championship Adjustments (5:00 - 10:00)
Godinez's Best Sequence. Comes out aggressively, knowing she's down 10-9. Doubles volume output, landing clean combinations with head movement to avoid counters. Catches Suarez with overhand right at 5:45 that backs her up briefly. Godinez strings together 20+ strikes to Suarez's 6 in this sequence, winning the striking battle clearly. Confidence building as she keeps the fight in open space.
Wrestling Pressure Compounds. Suarez closes distance behind jabs, initiating clinch at 6:45. Drives Godinez to fence and immediately starts chaining takedown attempts. First shot is stuffed, but Suarez immediately chains to high-crotch at 7:00—completed. Godinez scrambles but Suarez maintains top position in half guard. Suarez methodically passes to side control at 7:30, isolating an arm for kimura attempt. Godinez defends well but is purely defensive, absorbing damage and expending energy.
Still on the ground. Suarez transitions to mount at 8:15 following failed sweep attempt by Godinez. Dangerous submission sequence: Suarez locks in arm-triangle choke at 8:40. Godinez defends intelligently, creating space with hip escapes and keeping her arm inside. After 45 seconds of submission defense, Godinez survives but is exhausted. Suarez maintains dominant position through end of round.
Final 30 seconds with Suarez in mount landing short ground-and-pound. Referee watches closely as Godinez covers up. Suarez lands 15-20 strikes (mix of punches and elbows) in final minute, accumulating damage. Bell rings with Suarez in full mount. Clear 10-9 Suarez, possibly 10-8 due to mount control and submission threat. Godinez now faces must-finish urgency down 20-18 or 20-17.
🏆Round 3: Finish or Survive (10:00 - 15:00)
Godinez's Last Stand. Knowing she needs a finish, Godinez comes out with reckless aggression, throwing caution to wind. Lands a solid 1-2 combination at 10:15 that snaps Suarez's head back. Pressing forward with high volume but also leaving openings. Suarez remains composed, timing her takedown attempt for 10:45 when Godinez over-commits on a right hand. Godinez sprawls but fatigue from Round 2 is evident—Suarez completes takedown at 10:55.
Ground Dominance Continues. Suarez wastes no time advancing position. Passes to side control at 11:20, then isolates Godinez's near arm. Works for kimura again at 11:45 but Godinez's defensive grappling holds up despite exhaustion. Suarez transitions to back control at 12:15, getting one hook in. Godinez fights the second hook desperately, knowing rear-naked choke would end the fight. Suarez settles for back mount with body triangle, landing punches to the side of the head.
Submission Hunt Intensifies. Suarez flattens Godinez out at 13:15, both hooks in with body triangle locked. Begins attacking rear-naked choke at 13:30—Godinez defends with chin down and hands fighting the choke. Suarez adjusts, going for short-side choke variation at 14:00. Godinez's toughness on display as she survives multiple choke attempts, but is absorbing punches to defend submissions. Suarez choosing between control time + strikes vs committing fully to finish.
Final 30 seconds. Suarez maintains back control, landing ground-and-pound to score points. Godinez is purely surviving at this point, no longer threatening escapes. Suarez lands final flurry of punches in closing seconds. Bell rings with Suarez on Godinez's back. Clear 10-9 or 10-8 Suarez. Unanimous Decision: Tatiana Suarez 30-27 or 30-26 (possible 10-8 in R2 or R3). Dominant wrestling performance with late submission threats validates the game plan.
⚡Window of Opportunity - Lupita Godinez
- • First 5 minutes: Highest volume striking equity before wrestling takes over. Must land 40+ strikes in R1 to bank the round.
- • Cage center (R1-R2): Circle and avoid fence to prevent clinch entries. Use footwork to reset after each Suarez pressure sequence.
- • Quick combos: Burst then reset; avoid extended clinch exchanges. Every second in clinch is a losing second.
- • Scrambles (R2-R3): If taken down, wall-walk immediately. Cannot afford 60+ seconds on bottom per round or fight is lost on control time.
- • Counter wrestling entries: Land hard counters on Suarez's level changes to deter shots. Every stuffed takedown builds confidence and saps Suarez's cardio.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Tatiana Suarez
- • Chain wrestling (All Rounds): Multiple shots per sequence break through 82% TDD. 4-5 takedown attempts per round, expecting 40-50% success rate = 2 TDs per round.
- • Clinch control (R1-R2): Use 5" reach and 3" height to dominate fence positions. Body lock throws and trips from clinch are high-percentage.
- • Submission hunting (R2-R3): Guillotine from front headlock in scrambles. Arm-triangle and back-take opportunities increase as Godinez fatigues.
- • Pace management: Don't chase finish in R1. Accumulate control time and damage over 15 minutes. 4+ minutes control time per round = likely 10-9.
- • Position before submission: Secure dominant positions (mount, back) before committing to submissions. Force Godinez to defend both threats simultaneously.
📈Momentum Shift Indicators
Suarez Momentum Builders:
- • First takedown landed (psychological edge established)
- • Multiple stuffed stand-ups (drains Godinez's energy and hope)
- • Mount or back control achieved (fight-ending position advantage)
- • Any submission attempt lasting 20+ seconds (fatigue multiplier)
Godinez Momentum Builders:
- • 3+ stuffed takedowns in a row (confidence boost, Suarez doubt)
- • Clean striking combinations with no clinch follow-up (control established)
- • Successful wall-walk within 15 seconds of takedown (nullifies control time)
- • Landing hard counter on Suarez entry (discourages future attempts)
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong wrestling edge tempered by Godinez's elite TDD
✅Supporting Factors
- • Elite takedown volume (4.41 vs 2.96 TD15)
- • Significant size and reach advantage (+5" reach)
- • Superior damage economy (1.58 vs 4.03 SApM)
- • Proven submission finishing ability (5 sub wins)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Godinez 82% TDD could neutralize wrestling
- • Suarez 45% striking defense is exploitable
- • Godinez cardio edge in extended standing exchanges
🏁Executive Summary
Tatiana Suarez's elite wrestling pedigree and unusual size advantage for the division make her the clear favorite in this matchup. Her 4.41 takedowns per 15 minutes, 5-inch reach advantage, and proven submission finishing create multiple paths to victory. The central question is whether Lupita Godinez's elite 82% takedown defense can keep the fight standing long enough for her 4.51 SLpM volume to accumulate scoring advantages. The damage economy heavily favors Suarez (1.58 vs 4.03 SApM), and her chain-wrestling sequences historically break through even strong defensive wrestlers over three rounds.
Prediction: Suarez by Decision most likely (30% probability) through consistent takedown pressure and control time; Suarez by Submission (25%) via guillotine choke is a strong secondary outcome. Godinez's best path is Decision (25%) requiring sustained volume striking while denying all takedown attempts across three rounds—a tall order against one of the most dominant wrestlers in WMMA history.