Joshua Van vs Tatsuro Taira
Men's Flyweight Championship Bout • UFC 328
Saturday, May 9, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Joshua Van
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Tatsuro Taira
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Joshua Van
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-06 | Alexandre Pantoja | W | TKO - Arm Injury From Takedown (R1, 0:26) |
| 2025-06-28 | Brandon Royval | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-06-07 | Bruno Silva | W | TKO - Right Cross to Ground Strikes (R3, 4:01) |
| 2025-03-08 | Rei Tsuruya | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-12-07 | Cody Durden | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Tatsuro Taira
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-06 | Brandon Moreno | W | TKO - Punches From Back Mount (R2, 2:24) |
| 2025-08-02 | Hyun Sung Park | W | Submission - Face Crank (R2, 1:06) |
| 2024-10-12 | Brandon Royval | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-15 | Alex Perez | W | TKO - Knee Injury From Takedown (R2, 2:59) |
| 2023-12-09 | Carlos Hernandez | W | TKO - Left Hook to Ground Strikes (R2, 0:55) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (5.8 vs 5.2) and Grappling Composite (6.5 vs 7.8). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Joshua Van Key Advantages
Van's relentless wrestling pressure at 3.85 takedowns per 15 minutes creates a constant threat that disrupts opponents' striking rhythm. Against Taira's 62% takedown defense, Van can consistently secure takedowns to control position and accumulate damage through ground-and-pound. His wrestling-first approach has been the foundation of his 9-1 UFC run, neutralizing dangerous strikers and grapplers alike. In the 30-foot cage, Van's chain wrestling and ability to drive opponents to the fence gives him the initiative to dictate where the fight takes place.
Van's 4.12 significant strikes landed per minute outpaces Taira's 3.48 rate, giving him a meaningful volume advantage on the feet. His 47% striking accuracy exceeds Taira's 44%, meaning Van lands more frequently and more cleanly in exchanges. This striking differential becomes particularly important when mixed with his wrestling threat — opponents must respect the takedown, which opens up striking lanes. Van's ability to compete effectively on the feet while maintaining his wrestling pressure creates a dual threat that has proven nearly impossible for flyweight opponents to solve.
Van's 9-1 UFC record — highlighted by dethroning Alexandre Pantoja via TKO to capture the title — demonstrates an elite level of consistency at flyweight. His only UFC loss came by TKO to Charles Johnson, a result he has since addressed by winning five straight, proving he can rebound and perform at the highest level when the stakes are greatest. His championship experience in five-round fights gives him an invaluable edge over Taira, who has never competed in a five-round contest. At just 24 years old, Van is fighting in his physical prime with the composure and tactical discipline of a veteran, making him the most complete flyweight in the UFC today.
Van's 72% takedown defense is a crucial asset against Taira's aggressive 6.48 takedowns per 15 minutes. While Taira's grappling volume is elite, Van's defensive wrestling allows him to deny a significant portion of those attempts and keep the fight in his preferred range. Van's wrestling background means he understands takedown mechanics intimately, both offensively and defensively. Even when Taira does secure takedowns, Van's scrambling ability and top position control often allow him to reverse or return to his feet quickly, denying Taira the sustained ground control he needs for his submission game.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Taira's elite 1.8 submissions per 15 minutes dwarfs Van's 0.4 rate, creating a dangerous dynamic whenever the fight hits the mat. While Van is the superior wrestler, any prolonged grappling exchanges carry inherent risk against a submission artist of Taira's caliber. Taira has 8 career submission victories and has shown the ability to finish from virtually any position — back, guard, mount, and standing. If Van becomes complacent in top position or gets caught in a scramble, Taira's submission game could end the fight in an instant. Van's 54% striking defense also leaves him vulnerable to being rocked and taken down in a compromised state.
Van gives up significant physical advantages to Taira: 2 inches in height (5'5" vs 5'7"), 4 inches in reach (66" vs 70"), and 2.5 inches in leg reach. This size differential makes it harder for Van to close distance for his wrestling and exposes him to Taira's longer strikes on the feet. Taira can use his reach to establish a jab and keep Van at distance, forcing the champion to eat shots while working into clinch range. In five-round fights, this accumulation of damage from the outside could gradually slow Van's wrestling output and allow Taira to impose his grappling game later in the fight.
Van's wrestling-heavy approach demands enormous energy expenditure, and against Taira's relentless grappling pressure (6.48 TD/15), the champion faces a battle of attrition that could drain his cardio reserves. While Van has shown solid cardio in his five-round decision over Royval, Taira's constant grappling exchanges and scrambles will test that conditioning in new ways. If Van's wrestling output dips in rounds 4-5, Taira's superior submission rate and ground game become increasingly dangerous as fatigue compromises Van's defensive wrestling and scrambling ability. Notably, Van's one UFC loss — a TKO stoppage by Charles Johnson — came under pressure, a factor Taira will look to replicate.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Van should mix his 3.85 takedowns per 15 minutes with his 4.12 SLpM striking output to create a constant dual threat. By level-changing frequently and mixing real takedown attempts with feints, Van can disrupt Taira's defensive positioning and open up striking lanes. When Taira drops his hands to defend takedowns, Van can capitalize with overhand rights and hooks. The key is maintaining unpredictability — never becoming too focused on either wrestling or striking alone, but flowing between both to keep Taira guessing and reactive.
When Van secures takedowns against Taira's 62% TDD, he must maintain heavy top pressure with ground-and-pound rather than allowing Taira to work from guard. Van's wrestling pedigree gives him the tools to ride opponents on the mat, and against Taira's dangerous submission game, the priority must be maintaining posture and delivering damage from top position. Van cannot afford to get lazy or sink into half-guard where Taira's arm-triangle and guillotine threats become severe. Short, powerful ground strikes while denying space is the optimal strategy.
Van should pace himself intelligently through the first three rounds, building a lead on the scorecards through wrestling control and volume striking, then maintaining output in rounds 4-5 where his championship experience gives him a major edge. Taira has never fought five rounds, and Van must exploit this unfamiliarity by pushing the pace in the championship rounds. Even if Taira steals early rounds with grappling exchanges, Van's proven ability to compete deep into fights — demonstrated by his decision wins over Royval and Tsuruya — makes him the more reliable closer.
🚀 Tatsuro Taira Key Advantages
Taira's 1.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes represents one of the highest rates in the flyweight division, and his 8 career submission victories showcase an elite finishing ability on the ground. His submission arsenal is remarkably diverse — arm-triangle chokes, rear-naked chokes, guillotines, and leg locks all feature in his highlight reel. Against Van's 0.4 Sub/15, Taira holds a massive 4.5x advantage in submission activity. This means every grappling exchange carries the threat of a fight-ending submission, and Van must constantly be vigilant in positions that might otherwise feel comfortable for a wrestler.
Taira's extraordinary 6.48 takedowns per 15 minutes nearly doubles Van's already impressive 3.85 rate. With 52% takedown accuracy, Taira consistently converts his attempts into positional control. This relentless takedown pressure tests Van's 72% TDD in ways that no previous opponent has. Even against elite defensive wrestlers, Taira's ability to chain takedown attempts, transition between single legs, double legs, and body locks means that even stuffed attempts lead to clinch opportunities where his grappling advantage can still be leveraged.
Taira holds significant physical advantages across every measurable dimension: 2 inches taller at 5'7", 4 inches more reach at 70", and 2.5 inches more leg reach. These advantages allow Taira to strike from distance, establish long jabs, and create space when needed. In grappling exchanges, his longer frame provides more leverage for submissions and guard work. The reach differential is particularly important in the striking phase, as Taira can land clean shots from outside Van's effective range, forcing the champion to close distance and potentially eat damage before initiating his wrestling.
Taira's 78% finishing rate significantly exceeds Van's 63%, reflecting his ability to end fights decisively rather than relying on judges' scorecards. With 14 of his 18 victories coming by stoppage (6 KO/TKO, 8 submissions), Taira is a genuine threat to finish the fight at any moment. His recent TKO victories over Brandon Moreno and Alex Perez demonstrate evolving striking power, while his submission wins show he can finish from virtually any grappling position. This dual finishing threat means Van can never feel safe — whether standing or on the ground, Taira carries fight-ending capability.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Taira's 62% takedown defense could prove insufficient against Van's relentless 3.85 takedowns per 15 minutes with 43% accuracy. If Van consistently gets Taira down and maintains heavy top control with ground-and-pound, Taira's submission threats become largely neutralized. Van's wrestling pedigree means he understands how to maintain posture and avoid submissions from top position, potentially turning Taira's preferred grappling phase into a losing battle. The champion's ability to ride and control on the mat could deny Taira the space he needs to work for submissions.
Taira's 3.48 significant strikes per minute and 44% striking accuracy both trail Van's 4.12 SLpM and 47% accuracy. If the fight stays predominantly on the feet, Taira is likely to be out-struck and could fall behind on the scorecards. Van's ability to mix wrestling threats with his striking creates a dual attack that Taira's more grappling-centric approach struggles to replicate standing. Taira's 2.86 significant strikes absorbed per minute suggests he's not accustomed to extended striking exchanges, and Van's higher output could overwhelm his defensive capabilities on the feet.
Taira has never competed in a five-round fight, while Van has proven himself in championship distance with his decision win over Brandon Royval. This experience gap could prove decisive in the later rounds, where pacing, tactical adjustments, and mental composure become critical. Taira's high-volume grappling style demands enormous energy output, and managing that intensity over 25 minutes rather than his usual 15 is an unknown. If Van can take the fight into deep waters, Taira's effectiveness could diminish significantly as fatigue impacts his explosive takedowns and submission attempts.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Taira must force the grappling exchanges early and often, using his 6.48 takedowns per 15 minutes to overwhelm Van's 72% takedown defense. By chaining takedown attempts and working from the clinch, Taira can negate Van's striking advantage and bring the fight to the ground where his 1.8 Sub/15 submission rate creates constant finishing threats. Even failed takedown attempts keep Van guessing and disrupt his striking rhythm. Taira should target single-leg entries off Van's punches, converting the champion's aggression into grappling opportunities.
Taira's 4-inch reach advantage at 70 inches should be leveraged to establish a long jab and teep kicks that keep Van at distance. By making Van close distance through strikes, Taira can time takedown entries as the champion rushes in. This reach-to-grappling pipeline creates a continuous threat loop: Van must advance to wrestle, but advancing exposes him to Taira's counters and takedown entries. Taira's height advantage also helps in the clinch, where he can use underhooks and inside trips to transition to dominant positions.
Given his lack of five-round experience, Taira should pursue early finishes through submissions or ground-and-pound rather than banking on a decision. His 78% finish rate supports this aggressive approach, and his recent TKO victories show he has developed the striking power to complement his submission game. Taira's best path to victory runs through securing dominant position in the first two rounds and either finishing via submission or accumulating such a significant advantage that even a slower championship round pace still leaves him ahead. Waiting until the later rounds plays directly into Van's championship experience advantage.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot Octagon creates an intriguing dynamic for this flyweight championship clash. The larger cage benefits Van's wrestling-heavy approach, providing more fence area to work takedowns against while also giving Taira additional space to use his 4-inch reach advantage at distance. Van's 3.85 takedowns per 15 minutes will be tested as Taira uses lateral movement to avoid being pinned against the cage. Taira's 6.48 TD/15 output suggests he also thrives in close quarters, making the clinch a critical battleground. The open cage favors Taira's longer strikes on the feet, but Van's ability to close distance and establish cage control could negate this. The size of the cage also means more space for Taira to work his guard and transition to submissions if taken down, rather than being stacked against the fence. Both fighters will need to manage the distance carefully — Van wants to collapse the space for wrestling, while Taira wants to either maintain striking range or secure his own grappling entries from distance.
🔬Technical Breakdown
This fight pits two elite grapplers with contrasting philosophies — Van's wrestling control versus Taira's submission hunting. Van's 4.12 SLpM with 47% accuracy outpaces Taira's 3.48 SLpM at 44%, giving the champion a clear advantage on the feet. However, Taira's grappling metrics are extraordinary: 6.48 takedowns per 15 minutes and 1.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes dwarf Van's 3.85 TD/15 and 0.4 Sub/15 respectively. Taira's 52% takedown accuracy against Van's 72% TDD will be the critical statistical matchup, as it determines how often Taira can impose his dangerous ground game. Van's 43% takedown accuracy against Taira's 62% TDD creates roughly even wrestling conversion rates, but the nature of each fighter's ground game differs enormously. Van seeks control and ground-and-pound, while Taira hunts submissions. This means a fight on the mat could swing either way depending on who dictates the positional hierarchy. The striking defense comparison slightly favors Taira (58% vs 54%), but Van absorbs less damage overall (3.15 SApM vs 2.86), suggesting the champion is more efficient at avoiding exchanges entirely.
⚔️Key Battle Areas
The primary battle will be fought in the grappling realm, where Van's wrestling control clashes directly with Taira's submission artistry. Van's 3.85 TD/15 against Taira's 62% TDD means he should secure multiple takedowns per round, but Taira's ability to threaten submissions from bottom position (1.8 Sub/15) means top control is no guarantee of safety. The secondary battle occurs on the feet, where Van's 4.12 SLpM and 47% accuracy give him the volume edge over Taira's 3.48 SLpM at 44%. Van must use his wrestling feints to open up striking lanes, while Taira must use his 4-inch reach advantage to land clean shots and create distance for his own takedown entries. The third critical battle is conditioning — Van's 5-round experience versus Taira's untested championship round endurance. If Van can push this fight into the later rounds while maintaining his wrestling pace, Taira's submission threat diminishes as fatigue compromises his grip strength and explosive scrambling. Conversely, if Taira finds early finishes or secures dominant grappling positions, his path to victory becomes much clearer.
🎯Final Prediction
This flyweight championship matchup is a razor-thin contest between two elite grapplers with complementary skill sets. Van's 9-1 UFC record (including a five-fight win streak), superior striking output (4.12 vs 3.48 SLpM), and championship experience provide a slight edge, but Taira's extraordinary grappling metrics (6.48 TD/15, 1.8 Sub/15) and 78% finish rate make him a constant threat. Van's path to victory runs through maintaining wrestling control with disciplined ground-and-pound while avoiding extended grappling exchanges where Taira's submissions become dangerous. Taira's path requires securing early grappling dominance and pursuing finishes before the championship rounds where Van's experience advantage becomes decisive. The most likely scenario sees Van using his wrestle-strike integration to build a lead on the scorecards through the first three rounds, with Taira having his best opportunities in rounds 1-2 when his energy and explosiveness are at peak levels. Van's championship poise and five-round experience give him the slight edge in what projects as a closely contested battle. Probability: Van by decision or late TKO — 52%, Taira by submission or early TKO — 48%.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 22% | Fair: +355
GOOD VALUE
Model: 25% | Fair: +300
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 68% | Fair: -213
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Grappling Mismatch Mispricing: Taira's 1.8 Sub/15 against Van's wrestling creates live submission value that may not be fully reflected in method props
- • Five-Round Inexperience: Taira has never fought past Round 3 — late-round finishes or decisions for Van could be undervalued by the market
- • Physical Size Edge: Taira's +4" reach and +2" height advantages create striking opportunities that could make him live at range
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Joshua Van
Primary path via wrestling control and volume striking
Ground-and-pound TKO after securing dominant position
Back-takes off wrestling exchanges create RNC openings
💥Outcome Distribution - Tatsuro Taira
Elite 1.8 Sub/15 rate creates constant finish threat
Ground-and-pound after securing takedowns
Grappling control through five rounds if no finish found
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Tatsuro Taira
- • Early Grappling Blitz: Taira's explosive 6.48 takedowns per 15 minutes combined with his 1.8 Sub/15 rate creates maximum danger in rounds 1-2 when his energy and explosive wrestling are at peak levels. Securing early dominant positions could lead to fight-ending submissions before Van establishes his wrestling rhythm.
- • Submission Threat From Every Position: With 8 career submission wins across multiple techniques (arm-triangles, RNCs, guillotines), Taira turns every grappling exchange into a potential fight-ender. Even Van's wrestling takedowns become double-edged — securing position risks exposing limbs to Taira's submission arsenal.
- • Physical Size Exploitation: Taira's 4-inch reach advantage and 2-inch height edge allow him to control distance on the feet and generate power from longer range, forcing Van to absorb damage while closing distance for his wrestling entries. This creates a consistent accumulation of damage that compounds over the fight.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Joshua Van
- • Wrestling Attrition: Van's relentless 3.85 takedowns per 15 minutes combined with his 4.12 SLpM striking create a dual-threat attack that saps Taira's defensive energy over time. Each wrestling exchange drains Taira's explosive grappling reserves, making his 6.48 TD/15 output unsustainable as the fight progresses.
- • Championship Round Control: Van's proven five-round experience gives him a decisive edge in rounds 4-5, where his wrestling pacing and tactical awareness have been battle-tested. Taira's untested championship round conditioning becomes a significant liability as Van's grinding style forces a grueling pace that favors the more experienced champion.
- • Accumulative Ground-and-Pound: Van's ability to maintain top position against high-level opposition allows him to deliver sustained ground-and-pound that accumulates damage and potentially opens TKO finishes in the later rounds. His 72% TDD combined with his top control creates a positional advantage that becomes more pronounced as Taira fatigues.
📊Round-by-Round Projection Summary
The fight timeline reveals a classic tale of two halves: Taira's explosive early offense (R1-R2) versus Van's championship round durability (R4-R5), with Round 3 serving as the pivotal turning point. In the opening frames, Taira's 6.48 TD/15 and 1.8 Sub/15 rates create maximum danger when his explosive grappling is fresh and Van is still finding his rhythm. This 10-minute window represents Taira's best opportunity to secure a finish or build an insurmountable lead. As the fight crosses into the 15-minute mark in Round 3, the advantage begins to neutralize — Van's superior cardio and championship pacing start to equalize against Taira's untested five-round endurance. Rounds 4-5 heavily favor Van, as his proven ability to maintain wrestling output over 25 minutes contrasts sharply with Taira's potential fatigue. The champion's experience allows him to make tactical adjustments and increase his pace when Taira's explosiveness diminishes, potentially opening late TKO opportunities through accumulative ground-and-pound. If this fight reaches the championship rounds, Van's path to victory becomes significantly clearer, making Taira's early urgency not just strategic preference but survival necessity.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
This prediction carries moderate confidence due to the razor-thin margins separating these two elite flyweight grapplers. Van's 9-1 UFC record, current five-fight win streak, championship experience, and superior striking output provide a slight edge, but Taira's extraordinary grappling metrics (6.48 TD/15, 1.8 Sub/15) and 78% finish rate mean any grappling exchange could end the fight instantly. The statistical edge favors Van's wrestling control and five-round conditioning, but Taira's submission threat creates inherent unpredictability that limits confidence in either direction.
✅Supporting Factors
- • Van's 9-1 UFC record with a five-fight win streak demonstrates elite consistency at flyweight
- • Championship-level experience with proven five-round durability (W over Royval)
- • Superior striking output (4.12 vs 3.48 SLpM) with higher accuracy (47% vs 44%)
- • 72% TDD provides solid defense against Taira's aggressive takedown attempts
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Taira's 1.8 Sub/15 rate means any grappling exchange carries fight-ending submission risk
- • Taira's 6.48 TD/15 could overwhelm Van's 72% TDD with sheer volume
- • Van's 4-inch reach and 2-inch height disadvantage complicates closing distance for wrestling
🏁Executive Summary
This flyweight championship clash features two elite grapplers with contrasting approaches — Van's wrestling control and striking volume versus Taira's submission artistry and takedown pressure. Van's 9-1 UFC record, 4.12 SLpM output, and proven five-round durability provide a foundation of consistency, while Taira's extraordinary 6.48 TD/15 and 1.8 Sub/15 rates make him the most dangerous submission threat in the division. The key battle lies in who controls the grappling exchanges — Van's top control versus Taira's bottom-up submission game — and whether Taira's first-ever five-round fight impacts his explosive grappling output.
Stylistic Matchup: The statistical profiles reveal a fascinating paradox — both fighters are elite grapplers, yet their approaches couldn't be more different. Van's wrestling game is built on positional control and attrition, using his 3.85 TD/15 to secure dominant positions and deliver accumulative damage through ground-and-pound. His 72% TDD and superior striking defense (54% vs 58%) create a defensive foundation that minimizes risk. Taira, conversely, embraces calculated risk-taking with his aggressive 6.48 TD/15 and constant submission hunting (1.8 Sub/15). His willingness to engage in scrambles and transitions creates chaotic grappling exchanges where his 78% finish rate thrives. The physical dimension adds another layer: Taira's 4-inch reach and 2-inch height advantages give him the tools to control distance standing, but Van's compact frame and lower center of gravity provide leverage advantages in wrestling exchanges.
X-Factors: Taira's championship round inexperience looms as the single most significant unknown variable in this matchup. His explosive grappling style — 6.48 TD/15 requires enormous energy output — has never been tested over 25 minutes. If his submission threat and takedown volume diminish in rounds 4-5 due to fatigue, Van's proven championship pacing becomes a decisive advantage. Conversely, Taira's recent evolution as a finisher (TKO wins over Moreno and Perez) suggests his game is expanding beyond pure submission artistry, creating dual finishing threats that Van must navigate. Van's own submission defense is relatively untested against elite-level submission artists, as his UFC run has largely featured wrestlers and strikers. Taira represents a stylistic puzzle Van hasn't encountered at championship level.
Betting Implications: The razor-thin 52-48 probability split reflects genuine uncertainty in this matchup, making moneyline betting risky unless significant value emerges in the market odds. The highest-value proposition lies in method and round props: Taira by submission (+275) offers excellent value given his 22% model probability and 1.8 Sub/15 rate, while Van by decision (+210) aligns with his championship experience and striking volume edge. The over 2.5 rounds line presents a solid +4.8% edge at -165, as the combined decision probability (38%) plus late-finish scenarios suggest a 68% likelihood of reaching round 3. Bettors should avoid parlaying either fighter straight-up, as the thin margins create significant variance.
Final Prediction: Joshua Van by Decision (Rounds 4-5 swing) — Van's wrestling control, superior striking volume (4.12 vs 3.48 SLpM), and championship-round experience give him a narrow edge in a grueling five-round battle. The most likely path sees Van building early leads through wrestling control and striking output in rounds 1-3, weathering Taira's most dangerous submission threats in the opening frames when the challenger's explosiveness peaks. As the fight enters championship rounds, Van's proven five-round pacing and tactical adjustments allow him to pull away on the scorecards, potentially opening late TKO opportunities against a fatigued Taira. However, Taira's submission threat keeps this a true coin-flip fight — any grappling exchange could end instantly via rear-naked choke, arm-triangle, or guillotine. Probability: Van 52% (Decision or Late TKO), Taira 48% (Submission or Early TKO).