Geoff Neal vs Uros Medic
Welterweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs Hernandez
Saturday, February 21, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage) • Houston, Texas
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Geoff Neal
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Uros Medic
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Geoff Neal
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-16 | Carlos Prates | Loss | KO (Spinning Back Elbow) (1, 4:59) |
| 2024-10-26 | Rafael dos Anjos | Win | TKO (Leg Injury) (1, 1:30) |
| 2024-02-17 | Ian Machado Garry | Loss | Decision (Split) (3, 5:00) |
| 2023-03-04 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | Loss | SUB (Standing RNC) (3, 4:17) |
| 2022-08-06 | Vicente Luque | Win | TKO (Punches) (3, 2:01) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Uros Medic
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | Muslim Salikhov | Win | KO (Straight Left + GnP) (1, 1:03) |
| 2025-08-09 | Gilbert Urbina | Win | KO (Straight Left) (1, 1:03) |
| 2025-01-11 | Punahele Soriano | Win | TKO (Right Hook + GnP) (1, 0:31) |
| 2024-04-27 | Tim Means | Win | KO (Uppercut) (1, 2:09) |
| 2023-11-18 | Myktybek Orolbai | Loss | SUB (Neck Crank) (2, 4:12) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (66.0 vs 66.0) and Grappling Composite (78.0 vs 55.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Geoff Neal Key Advantages
Neal's 75-inch reach versus Medic's 71 inches is a massive 4-inch differential at welterweight. Despite being the shorter fighter by 2 inches, Neal can manage distance with his jab, keep Medic at the end of his punches, and force Medic to overcommit on entries. In the large 30-foot cage in Houston, this reach edge gives Neal room to circle, reset, and pick his shots from range—exactly the kind of environment that neutralizes a blitzing style like Medic's.
Neal's 88% takedown defense is among the elite in the welterweight division. While neither fighter is a wrestler, this metric reflects Neal's balance, footwork, and ability to stay upright under pressure—qualities that translate directly to standing exchanges. By contrast, Medic's 56% TDD is a major vulnerability. This differential ensures Neal dictates where the fight takes place and can keep it standing on his terms.
Neal has gone the distance multiple times against top competition: Stephen Thompson, Belal Muhammad, Santiago Ponzinibbio, and Ian Machado Garry. His 9:52 average fight duration proves he can sustain pace for 15 minutes. If this fight enters Rounds 2 and 3, Neal is in familiar territory. Medic, with a 4:15 average fight duration and zero career decision wins, has never won a fight that went past his initial burst. This cardio gap becomes the defining factor if Neal survives the early storm.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Neal's tendency to absorb strikes (5.48 SApM—higher than his output) is deeply concerning against the most prolific knockdown artist in the division. Medic's 3.17 knockdown average and 61% striking accuracy create a devastating alignment. If Medic catches Neal early with a clean straight left or right hook, the fight is over before Neal can implement his range game. Four consecutive first-round finishes aren't a fluke—this is who Medic is when he's on.
Neal has lost 3 of his last 5 fights. The losses to Prates (R1 KO) and Rakhmonov (R3 SUB) show he's increasingly hittable and vulnerable against elite-level finishers. At 35, his chin may be deteriorating, and the speed differential against a younger, faster fighter like Medic (32) could be the difference between slipping a punch and getting knocked unconscious.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Neal should start behind his jab, use the 4-inch reach advantage, and establish distance. His optimal strategy involves timing Medic's entries with counter right hands and left hooks, using lateral movement in the large cage to deny Medic his preferred close-range exchanges. If Neal can survive the first 3-4 minutes without getting hurt, the fight shifts dramatically in his favor as Medic enters unknown cardio territory.
Neal should look to mix in clinch work along the fence to burn Medic's gas tank and impose the kind of grinding pace that Medic has never faced. His 0.98 knockdown average means he can catch Medic coming in with a clean counter—as shown in his TKO victory over Vicente Luque. The longer this fight goes, the more the advantage shifts to Neal. Patience and disciplined range management are the keys to victory.
🚀 Uros Medic Key Advantages
Medic's 3.17 knockdown-per-fight average is astronomical. His 100% KO/TKO rate in the UFC (4 wins, all finishes, all KO/TKO) makes him one of the most dangerous early finishers in the welterweight division. His power translates across both hands—straight lefts, overhand rights, and hooks from either side carry fight-ending authority. Against a fighter like Neal who absorbs 5.48 strikes per minute, the alignment is lethal. One clean shot is all it takes.
Medic's 61% striking accuracy is elite—far above the divisional average. He doesn't throw volume for the sake of it; when he throws, he lands. Combined with an 8.27 SLpM output, Medic is both accurate AND high-volume, creating a terrifying combination. His ability to land clean shots at such a high rate means every exchange carries finish potential. Neal's 53% striking defense means nearly half of Medic's shots will get through.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Medic has literally never won a fight that went past his initial burst. His 4:15 average fight duration and zero decision wins mean he has no proven ability to sustain pace beyond the first round. If Neal weathers the early storm and forces a Round 2/3 fight, Medic enters completely unknown territory. His 8.27 SLpM output is unsustainable beyond 5 minutes, and the cardio crash could be dramatic.
Medic's aggressive, forward-pressure style leaves him exposed to counters—and Neal is a proven counter-puncher with a 0.98 knockdown average. The 4-inch reach disadvantage means Medic must close distance against someone who excels at timing entries with clean right hands and left hooks. Neal's TKO of Vicente Luque demonstrated his ability to hurt elite-level fighters. Walking into Neal's power while overextending could end Medic's night early.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Medic's optimal strategy is simple: end Neal early. His entire approach should center on closing distance fast, throwing heavy combinations, and hunting for the knockout within the first 5 minutes. Four consecutive first-round finishes prove this is his comfort zone. He should feint entries to draw Neal's counter, then follow with power shots when Neal shells up.
The large cage favors Neal's range game, so Medic must cut off the octagon and deny Neal space to circle. His optimal approach involves aggressive cage-cutting, level changes to disguise entries, and exploding into range when Neal plants his feet. The key is staying just outside Neal's jab range until committing to exchanges, then closing the gap instantly with power combinations that don't give Neal time to set his feet and counter.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon in Houston is a massive advantage for Geoff Neal. The large cage gives him room to use his 4-inch reach advantage, circle away from Medic's forward pressure, and reset after exchanges. Medic needs to close distance to land his power shots, and more space means more ground to cover on each entry. Every step Medic takes to close the gap is a step where he's exposed to Neal's jab and counter right hands. The large cage essentially adds minutes to the fight clock by making early finishes harder to achieve.
🎯Technical Breakdown
This fight is a classic power vs. experience matchup. Medic's 8.27 SLpM with 61% accuracy and 3.17 knockdown average represent elite KO metrics, but his 4:15 average fight duration and zero decision wins expose a complete lack of proven cardio. Neal's 4.97 SLpM with 50% accuracy and 88% TDD represent a well-rounded, experienced veteran who has fought the best in the division. The critical question is whether Medic's explosive power overwhelms Neal before his cardio collapses—or whether Neal's experience and durability carry him into the later rounds where he dominates.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: first 5 minutes survival for Neal, range management in the large cage, and late-round cardio. Medic's entire win condition centers on the opening exchanges—his 100% UFC KO/TKO rate and 4 consecutive first-round finishes make him the most dangerous fighter in the division during the first 5 minutes. Neal's 88% takedown defense and 75-inch reach give him tools to survive the early storm, while his 9:52 average fight duration versus Medic's 4:15 creates a massive late-round advantage. This fight is truly about whether Neal can survive Round 1.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Geoff Neal by Decision (30% probability), achieved through superior cardio, range management, and experience over three rounds. Medic's primary path is through early KO/TKO (38% probability), leveraging his explosive power and knockdown rate. Neal's KO/TKO path (20%) becomes viable if he catches Medic on entries with counter shots. The fight hinges on timing: if it goes past the midpoint of Round 2, Neal's probability increases dramatically as Medic enters uncharted cardio territory.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 30% | Fair: +233
GOOD VALUE
Model: 38% | Fair: +163
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 20% | Fair: +400
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Medic's cardio unknown – Zero fights past Round 1 in the UFC makes his durability a complete unknown.
- • Neal's chin concerns – Absorbs 5.48 SApM, making him vulnerable to Medic's elite power.
- • Large cage advantage – 30ft octagon heavily favors Neal's reach and range management.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Geoff Neal
Primary path via cardio advantage and range control
Counter-striking KO as Medic overextends
Low probability submission path
💥Outcome Distribution - Uros Medic
Primary path via explosive early blitz and elite KO power
Very unlikely given zero career decision wins
Minimal submission threat from either fighter
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Uros Medic
- • First 5 minutes: Highest KO equity with explosive combinations.
- • Close distance fast: Cut off cage, deny Neal space to circle.
- • Power shots: Overhand rights and hooks to exploit Neal's 5.48 SApM.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Geoff Neal
- • Survive Round 1: Weather the early storm using reach and movement.
- • Jab & range control: Use 4-inch reach to dictate distance.
- • Late rounds: Cardio advantage becomes decisive as Medic fades.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Moderate confidence—high volatility fight with two distinct paths to victory
✅Supporting Factors
- • Neal's 4-inch reach advantage in large cage
- • 88% takedown defense limits Medic's wrestling
- • 9:52 avg fight duration vs Medic's 4:15
- • Proven cardio in 3-round fights
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Medic's 3.17 KD avg is elite danger
- • Neal absorbs 5.48 SApM—vulnerable to power
- • Neal on 3-fight losing streak (declining trajectory)
🏁Executive Summary
This is a classic power vs. experience matchup in the large Houston cage. Geoff Neal's 4-inch reach advantage, elite 88% takedown defense, and proven cardio (9:52 avg fight duration) give him clear paths to victory in Rounds 2 and 3 if he can survive Medic's explosive opening. Uros Medic's 3.17 knockdown average, 100% KO/TKO UFC win rate, and 61% striking accuracy make him one of the most dangerous early finishers in the division—but his 4:15 average fight duration and zero decision wins expose a complete lack of proven cardio beyond Round 1.
Prediction: Neal by Decision most likely (30% probability) through cardio advantage and range management over three rounds; Medic's primary path is early KO/TKO (38%) via his explosive power in the first round. The fight hinges on the first 5 minutes—if Neal survives, his probability increases dramatically.